Beyer assigns a 119!

[hoarsebet]

i am so sick of this guy pontificating on every nuance of the beyer figures.

here this cj and hear it good, bellamy road will be beaten on derby day.

you can take that to the bank...........................

[cj]

You can use the ignore button.

[PaceAdvantage]

hb is history....not enough time in the day to deal with turds....maybe if this was his first post of this nature, I'd let it slide, but a quick glance at his 11 post history reveals it's just not worth it to keep him around....besides, it gives me a chance to flush out all his other registered nicks.....LOL

[JPinMaryland]

Originally Posted by cj

I still say the speed figure is too high. It was a windy day, the pace was quick, and only two routes were run.

oKay this is the second time you've mentioned pace in this discussion so I will ask: What does pace have to do with it? Beyer figures do not factor in pace, do they?

Hence why the argument about pace? I dont get it. I know YOUR figures factor in pace, but not Beyers..

Originally Posted by cj

If BR repeats his Wood on May 7th, he'll win the Derby, whether he ran 110, 115, or 120. The question isn't how fast he ran to the exact digit Saturday, it is how fast he will run in Louisville.

??? THen why the hell do you bother to make speed figures in the first place?

Whoa brother. You are skating on thin ice if now you want to disavow the whole system...

[cj]

JP,

Pace impacts final time, and the Beyer people often get fooled when the pace is very fast or very slow.

As for the speed figure, I was just saying it doesn't matter much because he will have the highest by a decent margin, whether its 110, 115, or 120. Of course if others were running in this range, it would matter.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

It really creates a sort of chicken/egg situation. Is the track favoring early speed or is it really a function of pace strategy? I guess there really is no way to prove it scientifically.

There are numbers available (early/late balance) which gives you an evaluation of HOW fast/slow the course runs on any particular day.

[DerbyTrail]

Originally Posted by cj

As for the speed figure, I was just saying it doesn't matter much because he will have the highest by a decent margin, whether its 110, 115, or 120. Of course if others were running in this range, it would matter.

CJ..

That was HIS (Bellamy's) April prep.. Consolidator and High Limit come to the Blue Grass off 105's for THEIR April prep.. Who says either or both don't jump to 110-115..?? And B&R "ran" a "110" at Nad.. I'd say there ARE others running in the range, especially if the wind and variant inflated the Bellamy number by as little as 5%.

No? Maybe??

[JPinMaryland]

if you are saying these speed figures could be off by as much as 10 pts. then I have no idea why anyone would even look at them, much less take the trouble to calculate them. C'mon you are a figure maker, not professional but respected enuf, can you give us more accuracy?

[OTM Al]

Beyer says its a 120, then its a 120. You've got to figure margin for error in any calculations/estimates of the sort, but that's ok. You know its potentially there, then you can account for it rather than blindly assuming an absolute truth. Besides, how many times has Andy Beyer written a column after a big race saying he wishes he would have believed his own figures. Now we just wait and see if any of the big boys left can come out and get near that mark.

[cj]

I'm saying 111, take it or leave it

[rrbauer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think you almost have to try to beat him in the Derby if he winds up being a solid favorite. His race was terrific, but he did get loose against the second string 3YOs on a track that seemed to playing to speed a bit early (until mid card when the jocks all realized it and started gunning their horses).

Comment: Who are the first-string 3YO's? Are there any aside from this monster?

[betovernetcapper]

This is not an original thought, but when a horse wins by a significant margin, it often produces an inflated figure and BR won by 17.5 lengths. I can't take his 119 at face value.

[JustRalph]

I don't know about the number for the wood........but I questioned the number beyer gave to Ghost Zapper and he came back and ran like a monster.......

Very good thread..........I appreciate you numbers guys. I am not very good at it ....but love to read your comments after a race like this.....keep up the good work.

[Tee]

Forget the number for a moment.

Just look at the running style of the horse in question & the way he gets things done.

Big question is can he run away and hide going 10 furlongs?

Will he be allowed to do so?

[GeTydOn]

Still not a fan of Bellamy Road. And what's gonna happen when someone looks him in the eye with a challenge spinning out of the turn for a battle down the lane?? Only time will tell. But there is too much hype coming out of the Wood.