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Old 04-08-2005, 01:52 PM   #1
hoarsebet
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MORNING LINE ODDS?

ARE THERE ANY STUDIES AROUND THAT SHOW HOW OFTEN THE MORNING LINE FAVORITE ACTUALLY GOES OFF AS THE FAVORITE?

I HAPPEN TO THINK THAT THE MORNING LINE IS A POWERFUL INFLUENCE ON THE PUBLIC.
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Old 04-08-2005, 02:25 PM   #2
OTM Al
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I did something similar once when looking at morning line as predictor for winner as opposed to final odds. Final odds, as should be expected did about 3% better than morning line, which is statistically significant considering the size of the sample...thus a partial answer to your question would be very frequently, but the public still knows better than the oddsmaker in the long run.
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Old 04-08-2005, 02:42 PM   #3
kenwoodallpromos
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HEY!

Stop shouting!
I agree but if anything M/L favorites are probably bet down more. I know of no studies- you can make your own using Equibase.
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Old 04-08-2005, 02:54 PM   #4
GameTheory
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In 2004, all tracks, the ML favorite was the post-time favorite approx. 65% of the time, which includes ties of either the ML or the post-time odds. (i.e. if there were co-favorites in the odds, and either one of them was the ML favorite then that counts, and vice-versa)
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Old 04-08-2005, 03:36 PM   #5
BillW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwoodallpromos
Stop shouting!
Hmmm, might be causing the hoarseness . (Sorry couldn't resist - now back to being on topic)

Bill
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