Several years ago I showed up at a CHRB Parimutuel Committee meeting and presented data to the CHRB that (in my opinion) showed an alarming trend:
California Exacta pools (with 22.68% takeout) were underperforming the Exacta pools of other racing jurisdictions with lower Exacta takeout.
California Exacta pools weren't just underperforming in terms of handle.
California Exacta pools were underperforming in terms of generating purses and revenue from handle.
After I presented my findings and had taken a seat, someone from upper management at The Stronach Group took the podium and announced to the room:
"The trend in Jeff's data is interesting. But I'm pretty sure it's a short term blip. Something that will eventually self correct and revert back to the mean."
Below is a screenshot showing pool totals for Santa Anita R1 today Fri 02-21-2020.
I've highlighted the WIN and EXACTA pools.
Note the differential between the two:
WIN 70,777
EXA 48,353
Before anybody jumps in and posts
"What do you expect? It was a six horse field with a dominant favorite" --
Here are pool totals from today Fri 02-21-2020 at Aqueduct R1 where the exacta takeout is 18.50%:
WIN 86,131
EXA 120,380
Fyi, the Aqueduct race was a five horse field with a dominant favorite.
And no, this is not an isolated occurrence.
California Exacta pools (at 22.68% takeout) really are underperforming the national norm in terms of generating purse money and revenue from handle.
The annoying part to me is the trend was obvious about six weeks into their takeout hike back in 2011. They should have corrected it then.
But instead they insisted on the status quo and said things like "It's a five year plan. We have to give it time to work" and "I'm pretty sure it's a short term blip. Something that will eventually self correct and revert back to the mean."
Now here we are almost ten years later.
Imo, the trend (and the data over nearly a decade) couldn't be more clear.
Ignoring the data has cost California racing millions of dollars in lost revenue and purse money.
Maybe the time has come to revisit SB 1072 and California's 22.68% Exacta takeout.
If you think 22.68% Exacta takeout isn't death by 1000 paper cuts - think again.