Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-25-2018, 06:56 PM   #31
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
...
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 07:06 PM   #32
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
Well... Mendelssohn IS the fastest 3 yr old on Ragozin and TG so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make as far as that's concerned. The question in my mind doesn't concern his figure but his ability to replicate it. That's a big figure for a spring 3 yr old who popped first time dirt.

The percentages say he bounces but I think that could be somewhat mitigated by lasix and the 6 weeks. He can go back a couple and still win.

Also, it's going to be difficult to compare Meydan times to US because there is no run up.
what Rag did Free Drop get in the Blue Grass? I will be buying them when the full cards come out next week-just curious
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 07:09 PM   #33
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,657
i never bet on horses that won their last race by more than 5 lengths. if this guy wins, i lose
lamboguy is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-25-2018, 07:40 PM   #34
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
what Rag did Free Drop get in the Blue Grass? I will be buying them when the full cards come out next week-just curious
Haven't seen them all yet on Ragozin yet... "1" on TG
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2018, 12:02 AM   #35
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
I wouldn't go that far. Yes, she outbroke Abel Tasman--a historically slow starter--but Rayya has 4 starts this year and been hustled from the gate each time while the latter hasn't raced in 6 months.

Abel Tasman made up the 3 length deficit on Rayya with relative ease (to be fair, Rayya was kept out in the middle of the track). In the stretch, Abel Tasman was well within herself, with Martin Garcia high over the saddle with his hands virtually still on her neck aside from mild taps on her shoulder with a flick of the wrist. Van Dyke meanwhile was low in the saddle and scruffing energetically to get Rayya to keep up at the wire.


Tiz Wonderful suffered two major injuries, one at 2 and one at 3 despite the limited starts so we definitely have an idea of his inherent soundness. He has made virtually no impact at stud aside from a few sprint fillies and was carted off to South Korea a couple of years ago.
Sigh.

Rayya passed Able Tasman on the gallop out far on the back stretch, she is about half her size, and if that work was any other 3yo Oaks bound filly, I'm thinking you wouldn't be insisting on proving me wrong about its quality, or at least you wouldn't if it wasn't me...since it's me, of course you would.

Clearly, Tiz Wonderful had physical problems, had he not, he may have proved a decent racehorse, or not, we'll never know.

Regarding his only having sired few sprint fillies...whelp, he finally got him a stayer.

Its pretty easy to be in the anti-Mendelssohn camp here. Bravo. Big limb you're one there.

90% of you are anti-Mendelssohn, and in a way exactly like LoneF is anti-Justify. If Mendelsohn loses, I really don't care. But if Justify loses, you guys are going to melt down. You are all so emotionally invested in him.

I'm cedeing the last word to you henceforth, regardless of topic, I know your response.
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2018, 12:09 AM   #36
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
She ran 1.2 seconds faster than her Stakes Record time in the UAE Oaks. The fastest time any filly has ever run over that distance at that track and she knocked over 1.2 seconds off her mark. Keep thinking the track didn't carry those horses.

Ok, will do.
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2018, 02:05 AM   #37
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon View Post
Rayya passed Able Tasman on the gallop out far on the back stretch,...
This is a joke, right? Abel Tasman was throttled down to a light canter by the time Rayya "passed" her, a full 2 furlongs after completing the actual work.

Again, Abel Tasman was under mild encouragement in the work, Rayya was being set down to keep pace.

Quote:
she is about half her size,
So now she gets a pass because she's tiny?

Quote:
and if that work was any other 3yo Oaks bound filly, I'm thinking you wouldn't be insisting on proving me wrong about its quality, or at least you wouldn't if it wasn't me...since it's me, of course you would.
Huh? I just finished the first season of Westworld and still don't have any idea of what you are talking about...

Quote:
Clearly, Tiz Wonderful had physical problems, had he not, he may have proved a decent racehorse, or not, we'll never know.
But we do know he's not an important sire.

Quote:
Regarding his only having sired few sprint fillies...whelp, he finally got him a stayer.
If finishing 18 lengths behind Mendelssohn qualifies as staying I guess we'll have to take it...

Quote:
Its pretty easy to be in the anti-Mendelssohn camp here. Bravo. Big limb you're one there.
Who said I was anti-Mendelssohn? I'm more in the anti-Mendelssohn-is-the-second-coming-as-a-result-of-thrashing-wee-filly-Rayya-on-a-souped-up-surface camp.

Quote:
90% of you are anti-Mendelssohn, and in a way exactly like LoneF is anti-Justify. If Mendelsohn loses, I really don't care. But if Justify loses, you guys are going to melt down. You are all so emotionally invested in him.
90% of me is anti-Mendelssohn? What are you, my head programmer? What does the other 10% of me think? Certainly not pro-Justify...

Quote:
I'm cedeing the last word to you henceforth, regardless of topic, I know your response.
While I'm out on a limb, it seems like the bough broke under you.

Rock-a-bye.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-26-2018, 05:55 AM   #38
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon View Post
Ok, will do.
Well, your first post started out with bad math, so I figured you could use the help.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:42 PM   #39
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon View Post
Ok, will do.
Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:50 PM   #40
SkunkApe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 326
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.
Where’d she finish?

I forgot to look - I needed Monomay Girl to win that nailbiter for my P4.
SkunkApe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:58 PM   #41
depalma113
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkunkApe View Post
Where’d she finish?

I forgot to look - I needed Monomay Girl to win that nailbiter for my P4.

13th - 40 lengths back
depalma113 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 06:59 PM   #42
SkunkApe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 326
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
13th - 40 lengths back
Poor LoneF.
SkunkApe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 07:18 PM   #43
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
To be fair to the horse, and forgetting the silly opinions by a few, once she blew the break she had little chance given she seems to have one way to run.

And working heads up with Abel Tasman was not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Its an issue for speed horses from Europe, they dont break the same as here in the US.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 08:27 PM   #44
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113 View Post
Like I said, Rayya was carried by the track in Dubai. Just like the winner was.
She blew the break. It's pretty hard to declare what another horse will do tomorrow, based on her blowing the break. It looks to me like she hit the stall hard, but I'm sure Spalding Foot Stamper, will make a point of telling me I am blind and absolutely, positively, not entitled to an opinion different from his.

She isn't a Euro horse. She's trainined by an American in Dubai.

FWIW, minutes before the race Baffert said if she missed the break her race was over and low and behold...

Like I said, I'm not trying to get any of you to support Mendelssohn. I really could care less whether you think he's the crap or cream of the crop. I'm not an evangelist. This thread wasn't about that, it was about trying to have a dialog about those 18 lengths, but that's not possible here. It's like a mean girls slumber party here.

Anywho, I didn't have money on Rayya, I had it on Wonder Gadot. I'd had rather lost by 40 lengths than just shy of one.

I do hope most people will use Rayya's performance today to bail on Mendelssohn. If My Boy Jack can get bet down to 5-1, anything's possible.

Cheers.

Last edited by papillon; 05-04-2018 at 08:30 PM. Reason: typos
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-04-2018, 08:35 PM   #45
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
well missing the break shouldnt cause you to lose by 40, she sat behind Mendelssohn and ran second. On pure talent she was probably 10th or 11th in that field, maybe. I doubt she is ever a real factor in the Baffert barn.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:30 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.