Rayya's Times, the magical rail exagerated?

[sammy the sage]

She also BANGED her friggin head coming out....SUCKS....this race is a total throw-out....and gives us ABSOLUTELY no read on Dubai....

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

She also BANGED her friggin head coming out....SUCKS....this race is a total throw-out....and gives us ABSOLUTELY no read on Dubai....

She didn't hit the gate coming out. She broke in the air.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by papillon

Like I said, I'm not trying to get any of you to support Mendelssohn. I really could care less whether you think he's the crap or cream of the crop. I'm not an evangelist. This thread wasn't about that, it was about trying to have a dialog about those 18 lengths, but that's not possible here. It's like a mean girls slumber party here.

I tried to point out why the UAE Derby was indeed affected by a golden rail and you never wanted to discuss it. You wanted your interpretation to be correct and really didn't want to hear anything to the contrary.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by depalma113

She didn't hit the gate coming out. She broke in the air.

What-ever you say is gospel....fine with me....still....she AND the jock were....well....so in the grand scheme of things...nah...nevermind...

[GMB@BP]

I would not use this race as anything in regards to Mendelssohn.

Any serious handicapper knows that he beat a trash field by an open margin helped by a golden rail in a fast time.

Hard to quantify a talented horse by a completely inferior horse who chased him.

[rabrown36]

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast. The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.


The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.


Midnight Bisou - ran alright, but not what some made her out to be.

Maybe Justify and Bolt will prove me wrong, but I have been saying that these 3-year-olds from Cali are a tad over-rated with inflated numbers.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast. The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.


The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.


Midnight Bisou - ran alright, but not what some made her out to be.

Maybe Justify and Bolt will prove me wrong, but I have been saying that these 3-year-olds from Cali are a tad over-rated with inflated numbers.

I bet against everyone of those California horses but Midnight Bisou who ran very credible with a tough trip against a moderate pace. I also think 9F may be longer than she wants, it was my chief concern.

Abel Tasman had been working very poorly for her standards.

Hoppurtunity has not won a top class race in years. Rayya was an inferior horse as discussed.

Cognitive was just a horrendous bet, I had the 6, did not work out to well for me either.

But a socal grass horse won, guess thats were they are good.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Hard to quantify a talented horse by a completely inferior horse who chased him.

Well stated.

Originally Posted by rabrown36

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen.

Yes it does, and if you can put a number to the bias, you can get rich in this game.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by rabrown36

yes the rail was a very good place to be in Dubai. But that does not explain Mendelssohn. The truth is he ran the best prep race out of everyone. He jumped off the screen. No other horse in Dubai who also had the same set up ran as good or fast.

Thunder Snow ran a similarly fast race in the World Cup. He hit the 1900m mark at a near identical time to Mendelssohn. He also had the far outside post and had to hustle and engage West Coast to the first turn before coming away with the lead and the rail, whereas Mendelssohn had a relatively easy go of it to establish the lead in his race.

That in and of itself is by no means a knock on Mendelssohn, as Thunder Snow in general is no slouch and arguably is the only horse from the 2017 Kentucky Derby who has displayed Grade or Group 1 talent in subsequent starts.

However, the question mark it raises isn't so much a reflection on the quality and talent of Mendelssohn, but rather his stamina.

Thunder Snow, for all his attributes, is a miler at heart and never carried his speed a full 10 furlongs until the Dubai World Cup. If the play of the track carried him an extra furlong or two, did it do the same for Mendelssohn (who's bloodlines hardly scream 10 furlongs)?

The horse is bred to be great, sold for 3million. Shipped over here and already won(on turf) He is also the youngest horse in the race. Not even 3 until May 17. FYI Magnum moon and Promis fulfilled the only other ones that are not three yet.

Being the youngest horse in the race is probably not a point in his favor.

The thing we should talk about is why these Cali horses are not running great.

Able Tasman - nothing, Hoppertunity - nothing, Rayya - Nothing, Cognitive - nothing. All trained by Baffert.

It seemed that all the main track winners today came from the first flight. None of the Baffert horses--surprisingly--were part of the pace. Rayya (not a solid example of a "Cali" horse anyways) and Cognitive, both of whom flashed speed in prior starts, were hampered by poor starts. Abel Tasman and Hoppertunity tend to settle in the back which was not the winning running style today.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Thunder Snow, for all his attributes, is a miler at heart and never carried his speed a full 10 furlongs until the Dubai World Cup. If the play of the track carried him an extra furlong or two, did it do the same for Mendelssohn (who's bloodlines hardly scream 10 furlongs)?

4 career races longer than 1 1/8 other than the Kentucky Derby - 3 wins and 1 place and he is a miler at heart?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

4 career races longer than 1 1/8 other than the Kentucky Derby - 3 wins and 1 place and he is a miler at heart?

Other than his bias-aided score in the Dubai World Cup, you won't find a start by Thunder Snow beyond a mile that featured anything of Group 1 caliber or that had displayed prior adeptness at a classic distance.

The other 3 races you mentioned were all at Meydan and featured fields of fellow milers (North America, Heavy Metal, Lancaster Bomber) and a motley crew of elder ex-pats from North and South America. He lost one by a pole and was life-and-death to win the other 2.

There was plenty of opportunity to try a middle distance in Europe last summer and he stayed safely ensconced in the mile division.