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Old 09-20-2018, 12:58 PM   #16
bobphilo
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OK.....The horse at 7-1 was not a good bet, regardless of the result, IMO...
I think 7-1 is a longshot, but then I also think that a horse at 6-5 can have value.
IMO the horse was a good bet at even shorter than 7-1. Differences of opinion make horse racing.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:13 PM   #17
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I think 7-1 is a longshot, but then I also think that a horse at 6-5 can have value.
IMO the horse was a good bet at even shorter than 7-1. Differences of opinion make horse racing.
It's all good, Bob....
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Old 09-21-2018, 10:05 AM   #18
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Old 09-21-2018, 11:46 AM   #19
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At first glance these results seem puzzling but I think see factors such as trip, ground loss, race shape and uneven pace distribution can explain these apparent contradictions. I think i have a handle on most of them but some of the details of this unusually run race will take more time than I have at the moment but it shouldn't take too long and I will post when I have them.
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Old 09-21-2018, 05:17 PM   #20
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Looks like a race I have seen at NYRA a million times already - 1 rider sticks his horse out in front and the rest of the riders stick their thumbs up their.........reigns.
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Old 09-21-2018, 06:02 PM   #21
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Looks like a race I have seen at NYRA a million times already - 1 rider sticks his horse out in front and the rest of the riders stick their thumbs up their.........reigns.
This is exactly what I was going to write, maybe with a little different wording.
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Old 09-21-2018, 06:07 PM   #22
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I thought That Andy meant she was the 4th best before the race was run making her a poor bet, to which I disagree for the reasons I stated. Maybe he can clarify.

Trakus does indicate that some horses had had wide trips. Hope you post the figures when you do them to see how ground loss affected the outcome. I'm also going to check the replay for trips.
I think that's exactly what Andy meant...and I agree with him. The top pace-figure, and a tie for the top speed figure in a maiden race at Finger Lakes, hardly qualifies a horse for distinction when placed against horses who had competed successfully in Saratoga stakes races. Whether or not this horse was a good wager at that price is a matter of opinion...but, IMO...she was the fourth-best horse going into that race.
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Old 09-21-2018, 06:35 PM   #23
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The best horse in the race, I assume was the 6 with a 97 last out figure.

The second best horses, with 93 is the 5.

The third and fourth best horses, with 92's are the 7 (winner) and the 4.

So look at who is the trainer for the 7,5,and 6.
J Englehart, three horses, uncoupled, and the longest shot sets a slow pace and crawls home
at 7-1.

Go figure.
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Old 09-21-2018, 07:10 PM   #24
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I think that's exactly what Andy meant...and I agree with him. The top pace-figure, and a tie for the top speed figure in a maiden race at Finger Lakes, hardly qualifies a horse for distinction when placed against horses who had competed successfully in Saratoga stakes races. Whether or not this horse was a good wager at that price is a matter of opinion...but, IMO...she was the fourth-best horse going into that race.
I'd bet a large sum that Andy meant she was fourth best in the actual race, not before it. Hopefully he'll let us know.

All Finger Lakes horses and races are not equal. The trainer and rider were enough to know this. We are talking state bred racing here so I'm not sure the difference was near as great as you are making it out to be.

Curious how often people actually bet the horse they think is 'best' in a particular race before it is run. In my case I'd venture is definitely a minority of the time.

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Old 09-21-2018, 07:40 PM   #25
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I'd bet a large sum that Andy meant she was fourth best in the actual race, not before it. Hopefully he'll let us know.

All Finger Lakes horses and races are not equal. The trainer and rider were enough to know this. We are talking state bred racing here so I'm not sure the difference was near as great as you are making it out to be.

Curious how often people actually bet the horse they think is 'best' in a particular race before it is run. In my case I'd venture is definitely a minority of the time.
"If horses that are fourth best at 7-1 are your bag, she was a great bet"...Andy wrote. Since we assess a horse's betting value BEFORE the race is run...I have to think that he was questioning this horse's PRE-RACE wagering value.
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Old 09-21-2018, 07:53 PM   #26
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"If horses that are fourth best at 7-1 are your bag, she was a great bet"...Andy wrote. Since we assess a horse's betting value BEFORE the race is run...I have to think that he was questioning this horse's PRE-RACE wagering value.
Lunch bet next time I'm in Vegas.
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Old 09-21-2018, 07:59 PM   #27
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Lunch bet next time I'm in Vegas.
You are on.
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Old 09-21-2018, 08:01 PM   #28
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You are on.
And we're talking Gordon Ramsey gourmet burger lunch or the like, not some cheap buffet from Vegas Vacation!
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Old 09-21-2018, 08:07 PM   #29
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And we're talking Gordon Ramsey gourmet burger lunch or the like, not some cheap buffet from Vegas Vacation!
DAMMIT...I forgot that you are on that freakin all-steak diet!
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Old 09-21-2018, 08:16 PM   #30
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The best horse in the race, I assume was the 6 with a 97 last out figure.

The second best horses, with 93 is the 5.

The third and fourth best horses, with 92's are the 7 (winner) and the 4.

So look at who is the trainer for the 7,5,and 6.
J Englehart, three horses, uncoupled, and the longest shot sets a slow pace and crawls home
at 7-1.

Go figure.
You may have a point. I must have read the figures on the other horses wrong since I was in a hurry. Either that or my vision is going with age.
Maybe I saw something in the other horses with better figures so I eliminated
them.
To think I could have cashed at 7-1 due to mistake. No such luck. I didn't have time to get the bet in in time. Maybe it was karma preventing me from profiting from a mistake.
Actually, in analyzing the race I've discovered something useful in evaluating performances. Even with the correct figures 5 out of the 7 ran unexpectedly poor races and they all had something in common. Will post that analysis shortly.
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