Odds to win Super Bowl racing industry wake up

[classhandicapper]

Here's the annual handle data from the Jockey Club

There are some good and bad years starting with 1990, but you can see there was a huge decline in the US starting in 2008 and continuing through 2011. Then we went back to the similar old pattern. The economy was a disaster in that 2008 period for a couple of years. It almost had to be a factor. The big up year in 2021 was almost certainly a return to normal post pandemic and all the government checks people were getting.

And to clear, I'm not arguing that CAWs aren't a big factor in what's going on. In a single year at a single track even the weather can be a factor. I'm saying that the period of the big slump broadly was partly the economy, unemployment etc.. and we never really recovered from it. Perhaps the lack of recovery was mostly CAW related.



https://jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Honestly I can't be 100% sure of it. It's more of the way it feels and to me it feels very similar to what it was like then, i.e. if the time is put in it should be do-able. I'd be pretty confident about the 10% ROI anyway. I just checked my amwager account and over the past two years worth of wagering on doubles my ROI is +13.6%. So doubles being doubles are grindy (unlike pick sixes) I think it's a decent enough indicator that I'd have a fair chance at maintaining the +10% ROI from the old days. I could immediately sense how much different things were as soon as I started using projected odds.

In NY I don't get much of a rebate on amwager, maybe 1%? It doesn't amount to much. I'm not playing at all lately, like I said for me to play 'right' requires just too much time. At this point of the year I'm only willing to dive that deep on an occasional weekend. Spring is usually a good time so I might ramp up and get more serious about weekend play in April-June.

Fair enough. Keep us posted. Logically you should be doing better in the win pool, but the double pool is one where you could get decent rebates if eligible.
But the lower probability nature means that it probably take a significantly larger sample to figure out where you are currently.Hope it continues well for you this spring.