What handicapping software package do you recommend?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You say that..."if it's profitable, I want it".

Do you believe that someone would put "profit" in a box, and sell it to you?

I believe the the answer to that is, yes. But, keep in mind that the term "long term" is usually associated with this subject. And as you well know, "long term" is not what the vast majority of players are wanting, they are wanting immediate profits, and they don't want to have to weather losing streaks of more than a few bets. In other words, the vast majority of players would not stick with it, through thick and thin in order to realize long term profit, but abandon it, as was mentioned earlier, as soon as the first bump in the road happened. There is very little chance that someone offering such a program would have to worry much about his own prices being dramatically affected by selling the program to a limited number of users, as most of them might not play the same tracks or the same races, at the same odds requirements, on the same days, or with the same method (if the program offered more than one rankings method). And, of course, those users would have to learn to operate the program first of all (cut out many potential competitors on the same bets), and become fully acquainted with all the "good stuff" that inevitably becomes available to those who are truly diligent (which cuts out a whole lot more potential long term price competitors). You can go on and on with this kind of stuff.

The creator of the program, invariably, knows the program better than anyone else, and knows how to take full advantage of all its capabilities, and of course there will be a "very few" users who become "intimate" with the program (through supreme diligence), enough so to use it to it's fullest potential. Just ask any of the creators of any of the good software programs available, I'm sure they will tell you that only a small percentage of the users of the program exploit it to its maximum potential, and actually make long term profit using it.

Any "black box" program worth its weight, will always be beyond some mere horse picking program, or analysis tool, any program is capable of producing picks (if the creator of the program so wishes), but as we all know, picking horses is not nearly enough to be profitable.

Speaking for my own program, it has always been told to prospective users that the user must do "work" in order to test tracks to find what works, at which of those tracks, at what times of the year, at what odds ranges, etc.. Still, most do not realize that they must continually do the work involved, they think that once they find something that is working, it will always be the same, never changing. That realization is where most "jump ship", they just don't want to work for it, they want it given to them, once and for all. The game changes, conditions change, everything changes, which means that the program must change also, and that requires some continual work to be done by the user. Unfortunately, very few are willing to do the work, keep calm during bad streaks, trust the testing, and not quit.

As you and I both know, Gus, there are very few players that possess all of the individual characteristics to beat this game, or to threaten those few who do, regardless of the programs or methods they try to use. There are many here that are far smarter and/or more experienced than you or me, but they still lose money over time, and have done so for years on end, because they just don't have all of what it really takes, intelligence and experience are only a percentage of the complete package. If this weren't the truth, then there would be a whole lot more profitable players out there, because there are some very intelligent and very experienced players, on this forum alone. So, for those who possess the ability to create a profitable black box, or profitable analysis tool/program, they have very little to worry about by offering it to others.

[acorn54]

i am one of those horseplayers that always lose
in my thirty five years of betting on horses i have not won money when adding up the cost of the data and the bets made.
i have not been a big loser mind you but around 500-1000 dollars in losses on average/yr.
yet, in my foray into the stock market i have made a nice sum from year one.so it seems everyone can have their knack for successful gambling, whether it be a farmer, gambling that his investment in seed to grow crops will make him a good living, or stocks, and for some gambling horses. everyone just has to find their niche and be honest about their abilities.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You say that..."if it's profitable, I want it".

Do you believe that someone would put "profit" in a box, and sell it to you?

About as much as you do. And that is on a good day. That is why I write my own, from the ground up--including all the initial, ongoing, and maintenance research and testing.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i am one of those horseplayers that always lose
in my thirty five years of betting on horses i have not won money when adding up the cost of the data and the bets made.
i have not been a big loser mind you but around 500-1000 dollars in losses on average/yr.
yet, in my foray into the stock market i have made a nice sum from year one.so it seems everyone can have their knack for successful gambling, whether it be a farmer, gambling that his investment in seed to grow crops will make him a good living, or stocks, and for some gambling horses. everyone just has to find their niche and be honest about their abilities.

If you were to look at being a horseplayer as a hobby, how would you describe your activity i.e. fun, challenging, interesting, frustrating, waste of time, exciting, expensive/inexpensive ....

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

If you were to look at being a horseplayer as a hobby, how would you describe your activity i.e. fun, challenging, interesting, frustrating, waste of time, exciting, expensive/inexpensive ....

it has given me alot of fun times and i would say i have had all the emotions you mention and it has given me a social outlet, and on many occassions when i wake up in the morning something to look forward to. and it has been inexpensive for me in relation to other forms of entertainment.
i hope this has been the experience of many others on this board.

[bugboy]

Acorn, I agree with you 100% it gives me entertainment and at my age something to look forward to.

[SpotPlays]

Not sure I found the answer, LOL, but thank you everyone for the feedback.

[Moto Pete]

I think Just Ralph gave you the top 4 back on page 1. I've only used HTR so I can't say it's the best but I can say it's a fantastic program. If I have any criticism it's that it can be overwhelming. It's easy to get information overload. There's the Robot for spot plays and race identifying, Tour for tournament players and a Modeler if that's your style. If your a Sartin disciple there's all the velocity info you need. If you want to just straight handicap all you need is the main HTR screen. All the info you'll ever need is there. I'm particularly fond of the TRNR button/page. The best info on trainer/jock stats out there.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by traynor

About as much as you do. And that is on a good day. That is why I write my own, from the ground up--including all the initial, ongoing, and maintenance research and testing.

I write my own also, but do believe some are out there profiting using commercial software. Those that do profit using commercial software already know horses and the horse racing game. Opening the software box alone won't get it. But it can assist very well.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I write my own also, but do believe some are out there profiting using commercial software. Those that do profit using commercial software already know horses and the horse racing game. Opening the software box alone won't get it. But it can assist very well.

I think a lot of that has to do with the definition of "profit." For a casual bettor, a commercial app that enables him or her to make a little, break even, or lose less is great.

For anyone serious about making money, or for serious wagering, I don't think anyone is going to use anything but her or his own (whether self-written or sub-contracted) software. When the serious money is involved, the idea of anyone with a few bucks and a data download being able to take pieces of their private pie is cause for alarm.

One should understand that the proliferation of handicapping software (and the use of the output of that software by casual bettors) is a direct source of profit to serious bettors--who are using their own software.

[TonyMLake]

I wrote my own. I don't sell it (although there's a .99 cent 'custom algorithm' addition you can buy as a favor to me). But I do give it away. It's really more than one app:

There's a desktop version for windows, which imports Formulator files from your purchased DRF. That's right - you don't even have to type anything in in order to handicap the races. If you don't have Windows, there is a JAVA version of the import utility for Mac, Linux, or if you just hate the Windows version.

The imported files can be analyzed from the Windows Desktop app, or loaded to an android device (phone or tablet) version of the app.

I use a java app I wrote to pick the Kelly Criterion for wins. I bet fractionally the Kelly Criterion amount to win, and 3/2 - 2x that bet to place. It doesn't make a lot of difference if you follow the typical pattern: For example, $2 wins and $3 places. Simple, straight bets.

I only bet on 5 furlong to 1.5 mile races on dirt or all-weather surface. No turf, and not even a drop of rain.

I select about ten races, from the best possible tracks and best quality races of the day. I don't include a single race where even one single data score is missing or zero... for example, if any horse has a zero speed or track variant in the PP's within the last three races, I throw out the whole race. IF there's a zero Beyer, that race is out.

The horse I bet on is the favorite according to one of the several algorithms included in the software. I skip the race if the favorite is tied or scores too closely according to the algorithm with the second best horse.

The JAVA and Windows stuff is available on the web. The android stuff is at the Google PlayStore - again, free to use except the custom algorithm - which is .99 cents and you'll probably never need it unless you know exactly why you want it.

I routinely get flamed for various reasons... such as... THIS APP DOESN'T EVEN LOOK A THE HORSE'S COLOR!!! ... and .... THIS APP DOESN'T CONSIDER FIRST TIME LASIX??? And etc. I do better than anyone I know, and the hardest part is just sticking to doing EXACTLY what I said above. When I lose, it's usually less than 5%. When I win, it's usually more than 150% my original bankroll. Overall, I win. I've been at the track since 1985, and have been winning since 2008. My percentage improved remarkably in the last four years.

Since I don't want anyone to accuse me of advertising - I won't even mention the name of the apps online. I'm not selling anything, anyway, but I'd definitely be interested in sharing the download location and name of the apps privately with anyone who wants to peruse the apps or the Google play store in exchange for a little private feedback BASED ON YOUR ACTUAL USE OF THE PRODUCT AT THE RACES. I want to know how you use the app, or why you won't. I want to know if you follow the exact same procedure I do, but at your chosen races and tracks if you also make money.

Althought there are approaching a thousand active users of the Android version of the app, I'm definitely a "small time operator", I guess, so I'm not altogether too worried about making the market more or less efficient with my programs... hehe...

Anyone wants to give it a shot, message me.

Thanks folks! Love this thread.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by TonyMLake

I wrote my own. I don't sell it (although there's a .99 cent 'custom algorithm' addition you can buy as a favor to me). But I do give it away. It's really more than one app:

There's a desktop version for windows, which imports Formulator files from your purchased DRF. That's right - you don't even have to type anything in in order to handicap the races. If you don't have Windows, there is a JAVA version of the import utility for Mac, Linux, or if you just hate the Windows version.

The imported files can be analyzed from the Windows Desktop app, or loaded to an android device (phone or tablet) version of the app.

I use a java app I wrote to pick the Kelly Criterion for wins. I bet fractionally the Kelly Criterion amount to win, and 3/2 - 2x that bet to place. It doesn't make a lot of difference if you follow the typical pattern: For example, $2 wins and $3 places. Simple, straight bets.

I only bet on 5 furlong to 1.5 mile races on dirt or all-weather surface. No turf, and not even a drop of rain.

I select about ten races, from the best possible tracks and best quality races of the day. I don't include a single race where even one single data score is missing or zero... for example, if any horse has a zero speed or track variant in the PP's within the last three races, I throw out the whole race. IF there's a zero Beyer, that race is out.

The horse I bet on is the favorite according to one of the several algorithms included in the software. I skip the race if the favorite is tied or scores too closely according to the algorithm with the second best horse.

The JAVA and Windows stuff is available on the web. The android stuff is at the Google PlayStore - again, free to use except the custom algorithm - which is .99 cents and you'll probably never need it unless you know exactly why you want it.

I routinely get flamed for various reasons... such as... THIS APP DOESN'T EVEN LOOK A THE HORSE'S COLOR!!! ... and .... THIS APP DOESN'T CONSIDER FIRST TIME LASIX??? And etc. I do better than anyone I know, and the hardest part is just sticking to doing EXACTLY what I said above. When I lose, it's usually less than 5%. When I win, it's usually more than 150% my original bankroll. Overall, I win. I've been at the track since 1985, and have been winning since 2008. My percentage improved remarkably in the last four years.

Since I don't want anyone to accuse me of advertising - I won't even mention the name of the apps online. I'm not selling anything, anyway, but I'd definitely be interested in sharing the download location and name of the apps privately with anyone who wants to peruse the apps or the Google play store in exchange for a little private feedback BASED ON YOUR ACTUAL USE OF THE PRODUCT AT THE RACES. I want to know how you use the app, or why you won't. I want to know if you follow the exact same procedure I do, but at your chosen races and tracks if you also make money.

Althought there are approaching a thousand active users of the Android version of the app, I'm definitely a "small time operator", I guess, so I'm not altogether too worried about making the market more or less efficient with my programs... hehe...

Anyone wants to give it a shot, message me.

Thanks folks! Love this thread.

Interesting! Did you never consider using other file formats, like Brisnet single, or the various HDW client formats, JCapper files for example, or are you just stuck on Formulator data? Not that there's anything wrong with Formulator data, just wondering.

[TonyMLake]

Believe me, with the payouts on the Hong Kong Racing these days, I'm *seriously* considering adding some different data import formats and getting a feed from some other source.

There's some chatter that DRF is going to publish the data, so I'm okay with that if they do. I've emailed them, and although they've always answered me in the past, they've not answered my last two emails regarding this topic.

So, yeah, there's a lot of things I'd add, if I wasn't already happy with my results at the track. For instance, I do think the mudder and turfers ratings are meaningful, and could be useful as an single click button push to recalculate the race on the fly if it starts raining or (insert idea here).

The program is a long term work in progress. I'll add more. Not charging for it, so, anybody who wants to contribute (AND HAS ALL THE PATIENCE IN THE WORLD, hehe) can.

I appreciate not being flamed if my black box doesn't look like everyone else's black box... hehe...

Thanks!

[raybo]

Originally Posted by TonyMLake

Believe me, with the payouts on the Hong Kong Racing these days, I'm *seriously* considering adding some different data import formats and getting a feed from some other source.

There's some chatter that DRF is going to publish the data, so I'm okay with that if they do. I've emailed them, and although they've always answered me in the past, they've not answered my last two emails regarding this topic.

So, yeah, there's a lot of things I'd add, if I wasn't already happy with my results at the track. For instance, I do think the mudder and turfers ratings are meaningful, and could be useful as an single click button push to recalculate the race on the fly if it starts raining or (insert idea here).

The program is a long term work in progress. I'll add more. Not charging for it, so, anybody who wants to contribute (AND HAS ALL THE PATIENCE IN THE WORLD, hehe) can.

I appreciate not being flamed if my black box doesn't look like everyone else's black box... hehe...

Thanks!

So, are you saying that there is chatter that DRF may publish Hong Kong racing data? Also, by "getting a feed from some other source" am I to assume that you're getting live tote info into your program? Or, are you just talking about another betting site?

Believe me, I know what it's like to go your own way, creating handicapping methods that are different than everyone else's. But then, that's how you enable yourself to win, IMO, by doing things that the vast majority of people aren't doing. So, if your method truly produces profit like you say, keep doing what you're doing, by all means!

[TonyMLake]

Andrew Beyer first wrote about the HUMONGOUS payouts on overseas races in 2011. See the article here, for example: Hong Kong's Big Pools command Attention

There are other articles posted on DRF as well, and of course, if you go looking, you'll find rumors on the various blogs.

... so.. yeah.. there's chatter... but based on DRF's lack of reply to my emails, it might not happen. Don't know why not though, there's already a track (Is it Woodbine??) which publishes its foreign simulcasts in the DRF as PPs, so, we know it can be done. Right now, the main data set is coming from the "Hong Kong Jockey Club" if I recall correctly. Check out www.hkjc.com

As for a "feed", no, I didn't mean a live tote feed, just meant an importable data set for PPs... but yes, a live tote feed would ROCK. I have been considering putting a live data feed of the tote into my Kelly Criterion app, though. The only way I can think of to do it is for people who use TVG as their bookie. I may try it some day. Don't know.

As for producing big profits, meh, only as big as I bet... I'm super conservative. I rarely bet more than $100 in a day - but PROFIT over time nevertheless. Anybody who wants to try it for, say, 50 races or so, it'll cost you nothing to find out. Just PM me and I'll link you to the app. That's what this thread about after all, right?