Stock Market Prediction

[horses4courses]

DJA hits 36K........or......32K?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

DJA hits 36K........or......32K?

THESE ARE EXTRAORDINARY TIMES, SO DON'T EXPECT ORDINARY EVENTS.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED FROM NOW ON.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

Could anyone please tell me WHY the market will crash and burn in the near future? Seems like that's the position of the 3-4 regular posters in this thread. Thanks.

Because certain markers that have been reliable in calling past tops are in play right now...the same ones that were in play in December 2021.

Because the consumer can't keep using their credit cards forever...because the Fed usually does NOT get it right (ie. soft landing).

And because despite this recent run up, it couldn't get near the summer peak...

Lots of things are saying down medium to long term...

We were in a downward trend from Dec 2021 until October 2022...if it closes above the August 2022 high, then my mind will be changed...until then...still in a down trend.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by myohmyjustify

Could anyone please tell me WHY the market will crash and burn in the near future? Seems like that's the position of the 3-4 regular posters in this thread. Thanks.

first of all you made this post right after Replay Randyl. don't underestimate that guy, he's pretty sharp at times.

from what i see of these markets currently, the leading stocks are now on a basic oversold basis, i am talking Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. these oversold conditions by the way that i calculate things have not occurred since 2008. therefore i am probably looking for a meltup starting now up and into the middle of April and probably to new highs. the acceleration to the upside that i expect is the main reason why i see a giant decline right after it.


my pick for a stock right here and right now would be Intel (INTC), the analysts hate this stock, and the chart looks awful. but insiders have been buying stock in this from $44 down to the current $27. the way i look at it is that the insiders have to know more than anyone else.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

first of all you made this post right after Replay Randyl. don't underestimate that guy, he's pretty sharp at times.

from what i see of these markets currently, the leading stocks are now on a basic oversold basis, i am talking Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. these oversold conditions by the way that i calculate things have not occurred since 2008. therefore i am probably looking for a meltup starting now up and into the middle of April and probably to new highs. the acceleration to the upside that i expect is the main reason why i see a giant decline right after it.


my pick for a stock right here and right now would be Intel (INTC), the analysts hate this stock, and the chart looks awful. but insiders have been buying stock in this from $44 down to the current $27. the way i look at it is that the insiders have to know more than anyone else.

So you are predicting the next upturn and the next downturn? That's a pretty bold move when everyone else is split on the current conditions. The January move up in the market is over, it's already out of gas. The market caught a little bit of New Year's fever, that's it.


These tech companies are running short on monster growth, which has always been their calling card. And the path to growth is more difficult in a high rate environment. Every time I see Zuckerberg peddling the Metaverse or Microsoft peddling ChatGPT it's obvious. These guys have to convince investors they are sitting on the next big thing because that's all that's ever driven their share price (Amazon actually lost money last year). I highly doubt either of these circus ideas equate to the next Google search engine or Iphone in terms of growth power. Not happening.




Intel??
Jesus Christ. No
I would set myself on fire with rocket fuel and a nuclear match before buying Intel. I like a beaten down value stock as much as anyone, but I can't consider this one until management is shaken up. The current regime is TOTAL disaster. They can't get anything right.


I'd offer up Disney as a similar but better option for a beaten down buy. Bob Iger can sell off ESPN or Hulu (maybe both). Get Disney+ to profitability, shrink the debt. Thus allowing the movies and parks to be the cash cows they always were. Plus, he is Bob Iger, they were winning the moment the got him back.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

---1 Because certain markers that have been reliable in calling past tops are in play right now...the same ones that were in play in December 2021.

---2 Because the consumer can't keep using their credit cards forever...because the Fed usually does NOT get it right (ie. soft landing).

---3 And because despite this recent run up, it couldn't get near the summer peak...

---4 Lots of things are saying down medium to long term...

---5 We were in a downward trend from Dec 2021 until October 2022...if it closes above the August 2022 high, then my mind will be changed...until then...still in a down trend.

---1 I do not believe history repeats itself. It may rhyme, as Mark Twain told us, but it rarely repeats. All those previous markers became markers due to the known circumstances of that time. Today, we have different circumstances and (possibly) different results. I don't doubt what you say, your success is laudable.

---2 The Federal Reserve (and central bankers world wide) regularly gets it wrong usually, especially per their long-range views. Remember the internet bubble that burst in 2001? Well all I heard and read for weeks on CNBC was Alan Greenspan is a genius; he called this, he warned us about 'Irrational Exuberance', and sure as shit, the bubble did burst, just like he warned us!!

But, what was rarely mentioned by the business media after the Internet bubble popped was that Alan Greenspan warned of Irrational Exuberance in 1996, 5 years before the market burst!

---3 I don't doubt this Mike but why can't the market hit its summer peak a weak from, or a month, or 3 months from now? To me anyway, the market always seem to be on a different time frame then what individual investors believe or want.

---4 Well a lot of companies' stock could very well be down medium to long term but on the whole, their individual businesses may also be doing very well. Entire sectors have had booms and busts in 2021-2022 -- sector rotation could very well be the "stock market" for 2023.

---5 If you wait for the market to hit or pass its previous high for your buy signal aren't you risking coming in a bit late and missing the easy run-up?

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts. Good luck.

[PaceAdvantage]

The August high is well below the all-time high, so no...

[lamboguy]

https://silverchartist.com/posts/32468381

[Jeff P]

ZeroHedge | Wednesday, Mar 08, 2023 - 03:22 AM
Perth Mint Sold Billions In Diluted Gold To China, Tried To Cover It Up; Report:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pe...over-it-report

The mint began doping its gold as a cost-saving measure in 2018, expecting to save up to $620,000 a year - a tiny fraction of its annual sales.

However, as ABC reports, just months after the doping began, the leaked internal report says refinery staff identified concerns that silver and copper levels may have exceeded those allowed by the SGE.

Despite this, refinery staff continued doping the gold.

Was this behind the (Imo sharper than expected) selloff in gold, silver, and related mining stocks over the past few days?

If so, the ripple effect in financial markets may turn out to be a temporary blip in the grand scheme of things.

But if you can't trust an actual mint to do the right thing:

Who can you trust?


-jp
.

[Tape Reader]

Open book test tomorrow: Buy a lower opening!

[PaceAdvantage]

We haven't had one of them good old fashioned market plunges on a Friday that leaves everyone wondering all weekend long how low it will open on Monday morning....maybe we're due.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

https://silverchartist.com/posts/32468381

this seemed to be a pre-cursor to Silicon Valley Bank. more and bigger bank failures to follow. Credit Swiss is very ripe for the next one. Citibank and Bank of America might have their problems as well.

[ReplayRandall]

4 PM EST....Huge announcement incoming.

[PaceAdvantage]

Tell me!

[lamboguy]

Dear customers and community members,

At Rockland Trust, we have an unwavering commitment to our communities that’s over 115 years strong. In times of uncertainty, our mission is to provide the individuals, families and businesses we serve with the stability they have come to expect.

Recent market events and, in particular, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have raised concerns. On March 12th the Federal Reserve Board announced that it will make additional funding available to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors. In relation to both SVB and Signature Bank, the Federal Reserve, FDIC and US Treasury jointly announced that they will fully protect all depositors, and that those banks’ customers will have access to all of their money starting March 13th .

In a joint statement, the FDIC, Federal Reserve and Treasury said: “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.”

This news brings great relief to those who were impacted.

I would like to underline that Rockland Trust has been supporting our local businesses and communities since 1907. Our bank is managed for the long-term by prioritizing sustainable banking practices. Rockland Trust’s priority to build and nurture meaningful customer relationships has led to a deep and diversified customer base. We are in a strong financial position.

If you have any questions, we invite you to stop by your local branch, reach out to your Rockland Trust representative or call our customer information center. For questions related to FDIC insurance, you can visit:

https://www.fdic.gov/resources/depos...sit-insurance/

On behalf of all my colleagues, I want to thank our customers and communities for the trust and confidence you place in us. Inspired by our purpose to be the Bank Where Each Relationship Matters®, we are proud to continue providing you with the highest level of dedication, care and support.

i have over 60 banks that i have $50.00 in each one of them for over 30 years now, i used to have more before those mutual banks went public. these last 60 may never go, but i will wait it out and still buy the stock if they do go public.