Stock Market Prediction

[Tape Reader]

SPX gap above 4203.04

[Tape Reader]

Chinese fortune cookie:

Your balloon (stock market) is about to pop.

[Rex Phinney]

Reality clearly not setting in on this market. That anyone would think "the coast is clear" to invest in equities given what the fed has done in the last 10 months is insane. We have no way of knowing what these raises will do to the economy, anyone claiming to know the effect is smoking crack.


I'm sitting it out for the most part right now, nibbling at individual names if they get cheap but overall I still think cash is best.


Bonds and Bond funds still look like the best bet to me in 2023, once the rate hiking cycle stops these bond funds should move up before equities, but given how drunk on growth stocks this market is, who knows.

[PaceAdvantage]

This market has to be done for now. The high is in.

It's like December 2021 all over again...next stop 3300

There isn't going to be any soft landing.

The Fed never gets it right

People are REALLY going to start hurting even more...forget inflation...people have no money left. It's all credit card debt at this point.

The S&P is so richly valued at the moment considering things are NOT going to get better going forward in terms of earnings...this thing has to die...

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This market has to be done for now. The high is in.

It's like December 2021 all over again...next stop 3300

There isn't going to be any soft landing.

The Fed never gets it right

People are REALLY going to start hurting even more...forget inflation...people have no money left. It's all credit card debt at this point.

The S&P is so richly valued at the moment considering things are NOT going to get better going forward in terms of earnings...this thing has to die...

Agreed all around

[lamboguy]

S+P closed under 4100 today... in 2 months from today, i would lay 6/5 that the closing number would be higher...

after that is another chapter and another story

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

S+P closed under 4100 today... in 2 months from today, i would lay 6/5 that the closing number would be higher...

after that is another chapter and another story

Just curious, why do you think that?

Technical? Fundamental? Political? Other?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Just curious, why do you think that?

Technical? Fundamental? Political? Other?

i am looking for the biggest crash ever in the history of all markets. the very best way to get the most amount of money away from the most amount of people is to get them trapped into the market. usually, this time of year money pours into the markets to fund 401k and IRA, when the money is done getting into the market, the raid will start.

i even expect gold to get hit as well. but i could easily be wrong on that one.

[lamboguy]

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. And their experience invariably matched mine, that is, they made no real money out of it.

Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money."

-Jesse Livermore

[PaceAdvantage]

Cut your losses short and let your profits soar by sitting tight...

Hardest thing in the world...because market psychology will fuck you 100x to Sunday.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am looking for the biggest crash ever in the history of all markets. the very best way to get the most amount of money away from the most amount of people is to get them trapped into the market. usually, this time of year money pours into the markets to fund 401k and IRA, when the money is done getting into the market, the raid will start.

i even expect gold to get hit as well. but i could easily be wrong on that one.

Thank you. Good answer, although I am less optimistic than you for the next two months.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Thank you. Good answer, although I am less optimistic than you for the next two months.

nobody is!

[Rex Phinney]

While I certainly expect the market to continue in a slow downward trend I can't get on board with the "biggest market collapse in history"


That is, from a strictly numbers based perspective, almost impossible at this point because for over a year now money has been coming out of the market in preparation for a pending recession. You simply cannot slowly drain money from the market for 12 months, set it in cash and then expect some kind of epic dramatic collapse.



Basically any significant move down right now will be met with buying and therefore the market can churn lower but it cannot collapse.



I do think the market will continue lower for the next 12-24 months with the ultimate bottom coming in somewhere between 3,200 and 3,500 on the S&P as this represents a 15% dip in earnings (from here) at 16 times P/E


All that being said the volatility of the market presents opportunity even now. The covered call and put market is alive and well and even simple funds that deal in this area are performing very well.

[ReplayRandall]

The financial road that you drive daily has massive underground erosion that can't be seen, until the road suddenly collapes and the sinkhole abyss appears below....The collapse of the stock market is imminent, nothing can stop it.

[myohmyjustify]

Could anyone please tell me WHY the market will crash and burn in the near future? Seems like that's the position of the 3-4 regular posters in this thread. Thanks.