Jaycito on target.

[joanied]

Originally Posted by Casino

Joanied how bad is a abscess?Can horses rebound back quickly?And normally how long does it take?

Good questions, Casino...no easy answers!
It depends on how bad it is...sometimes they'll pop and drain quickly and heal just fine...other times they seem to drag on forever...so, like I said, no easy answers.
I've dealt with some that are healed up in two weeks, a few others that took several weeks to completely heal. I don't know just where in the foot Jaycito's abscess is located and how deep it goes...but at least he'll get the best in treatment, so let's hope he's 100% by time for his Lexington Stakes.

If you are really curious, you can just Google equine hoof abscess and get lots to read up on.

Hope this helps

[Pell Mell]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

Jaycito needed the race this past weekend. He can't run a prep race about 12 days before the derby..win, lose or draw, and come back and run the Derby and be worth anything.

Geez, I don't know anything about stats but it seems that I heard that years ago horses use to come back in a week or less and win.

Anybody got any derby stats on that stuff?

[AgainstAllOdds]

Do you know why there has been no TC winner in years? The races are close together, and no horse in this day and age can accomplish that feat. The same could be said for Jaycito running 12 days before the Derby, but I guess only time will tell.

Besides, Baffert says the abscess is badly infected. Jaycito may not be running anywhere for awhile.

This isn't years ago, and the breeding of horses has taken a big nosedive. They just aren't making them like they used to.

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

Do you know why there has been no TC winner in years?

Purely bad luck. With any luck at all, we could have had 2 or 3 in the past 15 years. (Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex). 5 of those 6 ran big in the Belmont as their 3rd race in 5 weeks.. The one who didn't, War Emblem, was hurt coming out of the gate. The other 5 ran huge all 3 races and had a shot in the stretch (in Afleet Alex's case, his bad luck happened in the Derby, but he ran huge in all 3 races).

The races are close together, and no horse in this day and age can accomplish that feat. The same could be said for Jaycito running 12 days before the Derby, but I guess only time will tell.

I just proved that more than 50% of the horses in the past 13 years have run huge Derbies and come back to win the Preakness against fresh horses. A handful of those have come back in 3 more weeks and run very strong Belmonts. And your argument to that is, "nobody can accomplish the feat." Well done.

Besides, Baffert says the abscess is badly infected. Jaycito may not be running anywhere for awhile.

That's a different issue altogether.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Almost does not count in TC races...almost won isn't cutting it. The fact is there have been no TC winners in years.

The subject was actually Jaycito. You know the one you always think is such a piece of crap horse. I've read your posts before. You are just slightly full of yourself, and normally your opinions are just that...taken with a grain of salt.

There was a time 3-year-olds didn't retire either.

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

Almost does not count in TC races...almost won isn't cutting it. The fact is there have been no TC winners in years.

Great argument. Not. Classic results oriented nonsense I'd expect from a rank amatuer.

The subject was actually Jaycito. You know the one you always think is such a piece of crap horse.

It was about Jaycito. Until you made the not-so-bright comment that a horse can't win the Derby with a prep 2 weeks before, but apparently they can win the Preakness with a "prep" 2 weeks before that, and apparently they can win the Belmont with a "prep" 3 weeks before that.

But a prep 2 weeks before the derby? Not possible..

[AgainstAllOdds]

But, you are the guy that is all mouth when it comes to calling Jaycito crap, so really what you think doesn't matter to me.

Do you have to be a pro to be here? I didn't see the rules on the door to be honest with you. I'm a pretty good handicapper though, and I'm thinking we shall see who is going to have the last laugh here.

Jaycito would be running 4 races with short rest if he ran 2 weeks before the Derby. That would be quite a feat and I don't see it happening. I guess you don't either, because you continually put the horse down....so why pop in here now? You have the wrong girl if you are looking for a good argument. Now scat...take on some of the big boys that put you in your place on a daily basis.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

Geez, I don't know anything about stats but it seems that I heard that years ago horses use to come back in a week or less and win.

Anybody got any derby stats on that stuff?

Only horses to come out of the Lexington and win the KY Derby were

1. Charismatic who won the Lexington in 1999
2. Swale who finished 2nd in the 1984 Lexington

Charismatic went from 3rd in the EL Camino in March to 4th in the Santa Anita Derby 1 month later, then won the Lexington 15 days later, won the Ky Derby, won the Preakness, and finished 3rd in the Belmont. That gave him 17 races by the Belmont which would be his last race. Uncle Mo will have 8 if he races in all 3 races of the triple crown. Very telling on how racing has changed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AgainstAllOdds

The subject was actually Jaycito. You know the one you always think is such a piece of crap horse. I've read your posts before. You are just slightly full of yourself, and normally your opinions are just that...taken with a grain of salt.

This is the same person who was just getting on Dahoss9698's case for posting with an attitude in the Uncle Mo thread?

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by Striker

Only horses to come out of the Lexington and win the KY Derby were

1. Charismatic who won the Lexington in 1999
2. Swale who finished 2nd in the 1984 Lexington

Charismatic went from 3rd in the EL Camino in March to 4th in the Santa Anita Derby 1 month later, then won the Lexington 15 days later, won the Ky Derby, won the Preakness, and finished 3rd in the Belmont. That gave him 17 races by the Belmont which would be his last race. Uncle Mo will have 8 if he races in all 3 races of the triple crown. Very telling on how racing has changed.

The only reason just 2 have come out of the Lexington is that the best 3 year olds don't run in the Lexington. The vast majority of the entrants in the Derby run in the Fla, Wood, SA, Ark, Ill Derbies 4 weeks prior. So the vast majority of Derby winners will also comes from those races.

It has nothing to do with it being "2 weeks before the derby". Does anyone believe that if Big Brown ran in the Lexington in 08, he wouldn't have won the Derby?

[Casino]

Jaycito, scratched from the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday because of a sore foot, returned to the track to train at Santa Anita on Monday morning and is on course to make the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 23, trainer Bob Baffert said Monday.

Baffert is at Keeneland for the 2-year-olds in training sale, but said reports from assistant Jim Barnes at Santa Anita were that Jaycito "looked good."

"We got the soreness out of the foot," Baffert said.

Jaycito finished second in last month's San Felipe Stakes in his first start of the year, and for Baffert. The Lexington would be his final

Yesssssssssssss!

[elhelmete]

I claim no superior knowledge in this area by any means, but this seems awfully quick to get back on the track. I suppose maybe not for a slow jog, but...

[Striker]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

The only reason just 2 have come out of the Lexington is that the best 3 year olds don't run in the Lexington. The vast majority of the entrants in the Derby run in the Fla, Wood, SA, Ark, Ill Derbies 4 weeks prior. So the vast majority of Derby winners will also comes from those races.

It has nothing to do with it being "2 weeks before the derby". Does anyone believe that if Big Brown ran in the Lexington in 08, he wouldn't have won the Derby?

Actually in the last 5 years the race that has produced the most starters every year from 2006 except for 2010 has been the Bluegrass. Last year the Ark Derby had the most with 4 entries and the Bluegrass had 3. In 2006 the Bluegrass was tied with the Wood as both having 4 go. And I wouldn't include the IL Derby on the list of vast majority list of entries and Derby winners. There has been only 1 and quite possibly may never be another winner to come out of the IL Derby with the troubles that we are having with IL racing and purse structure. The winner this year wasn't even TC nominated. The last few years usually produced 2 or 3 entries from the IL Derby.

[Sekrah]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

I claim no superior knowledge in this area by any means, but this seems awfully quick to get back on the track. I suppose maybe not for a slow jog, but...

5 days before the Derby, Hard Spun ripped off a 5 furlong workout over the Churchull main (57.3) that woulda won graded sprint stakes and everyone predicted this would cook his chances in the Derby. He went on to finish 2nd.

And again, how do all these horses that win the Derby, also go on to win the Preakness in only 2 weeks rest?

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Sekrah

5 days before the Derby, Hard Spun ripped off a 5 furlong workout over the Churchull main (57.3) that woulda won graded sprint stakes and everyone predicted this would cook his chances in the Derby. He went on to finish 2nd.

And again, how do all these horses that win the Derby, also go on to win the Preakness in only 2 weeks rest?

I think he is referring to the fact Jaycito was scratched Saturday because of an abcess, yet on the track two days later.