You know who absolutely crushes it on mandatory payout days?

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

BTW, has anyone ever inquired to all these ADWs in existence if they have an API you can use?

AmWager seems pretty friendly to stuff like this...and they claim data and pool info updates 60x faster then the competition.

https://www.amwager.com/features/

No ADW is offering an API to the public? Has anyone ever inquired?

Yes, most definitely. I have had help from trusted sources active on this board. Despite explaining my approach, I have not been able to secure such an API. Pace, seriously, if you think I am wrong - and god knows I hope I am - tell me where to get an API to access that real time data. No joke, I have gone to the SOURCE of the data and cannot get that access.

[PaceAdvantage]

And BTW, real time, to me means, the moment I make a bet via TwinSpires, it immediately is transmitted to the host track.

Is there any venue in existence that does this? Not only would the venue need to be able to send out in real time, but the host track would need to be able to receive in real time.

I don't think this exists...anywhere...but I could be wrong of course.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

NYRA could be updating the totals they have taken on a Santa Anita race every 10-15 seconds, but another venue could take 30-60 seconds...and that venue could have a big bet that doesn't show for 45 seconds even though NYRA has updated their totals...see what I'm getting at?

Absolutely understood - and you are right. That said, do you believe that a player/CAW playing $1,000,000+ per day is not demanding efficient pool information in order to continue their playing in the pools? Outliers are quickly squelched in this model.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And BTW, real time, to me means, the moment I make a bet via TwinSpires, it immediately is transmitted to the host track.

Is there any venue in existence that does this? Not only would the venue need to be able to send out in real time, but the host track would need to be able to receive in real time.

I don't think this exists...anywhere...but I could be wrong of course.

Every market that allows you to trade equities and provides a counter-party trading system understands what "real-time" means. Yes, the entire equities/bonds/forex/capital markets depend on level playing fields.

Many years back, I wanted Reuters to buy the entire US/UK totalizator environment to level that playing field. This was rebuffed as the gambling angle was seen as different from the investing angle.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Every market that allows you to trade equities and provides a counter-party trading system understands what "real-time" means. Yes, the entire equities/bonds/forex/capital markets depend on level playing fields.

Many years back, I wanted Reuters to buy the entire US/UK totalizator environment to level that playing field. This was rebuffed as the gambling angle was seen as different from the investing angle.

You are 100% correct.

If you want real REAL TIME, trade the financial markets. Every single trade from anywhere in the world comes over the ticker in real time, and has been for quite a while.

But then, you have the High Frequency Traders (I guess the equivalent of horse racing's CAWs) physically positioning their servers as CLOSE TO THE EXCHANGE as possible to grab that .1 second edge...so it never really ends...your struggle against the "big boys."

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You are 100% correct.

If you want real REAL TIME, trade the financial markets. Every single trade from anywhere in the world comes over the ticker in real time, and has been for quite a while.

But then, you have the High Frequency Traders (I guess the equivalent of horse racing's CAWs) physically positioning their servers as CLOSE TO THE EXCHANGE as possible to grab that .1 second edge...so it never really ends...your struggle against the "big boys."

Mike...if we want a fair shot at the financial markets, how big of a total bankroll do we need to start?

I ask because it might be time to abandon this game.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Mike...if we want a fair shot at the financial markets, how big of a total bankroll do we need to start?

I ask because it might be time to abandon this game.

Honest answer is to develop a winning strategy and find out what your max drawdown is likely to be...then double that # to be safe...then you'll likely know.

The equity futures strategy I back-tested over 15 years of data has a max drawdown of around $16k per contract. If I wanted to trade 1 contract of this strategy, I would need $16k at a minimum...probably more like 20-32k just to be safe.

And that's just for 1 contract. You're not going to make a living on 1 contract in most cases.

In my case, I would probably need to trade at least 10 contracts to make a decent living, which means I would need 200-300k to be safe.

That's a lot of salami.

But like anything else...if you have a winning strategy, you increase your size over time as your bankroll grows.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the stronach tracks were giving the potential payoffs for trifecta's on their Xpressbet platform a few years ago. i haven't seen them lately though. the CAW do have feeds, they probably are the reason why we don't see them any longer from Xpressbet.

I was commenting on having an "edge" if someone had the will-pays for the P-6 prior to the start of the first race of the sequence.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I pretty much answered already. In the computer system are millions of bets made by everyone that has bet up to that point in time. So why can't expert A write a program to extract that information, and provide to himself that in this pick 4 pool the #1 in race 8 is being bet like a 4/5 shot, while in the pick 6 pool he is being bet like a 3/5 shot....That is all I am saying. Either they are blocked somehow (and my understanding is that racing has some pretty dated systems) or the information is accessible. If the information is accessible (it is obviously accessible to the racing industry) then expert A can pull the information into his system and make whatever analysis of the data he wants to in his own system.

I have stated exactly the same point for nearly 20 years! At a minimum a matrix of the betting for horizontal bets should be provided after the first race of a sequence has run. It would provide ample light on blind pools and provide an expectation of where the win odds will be.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Honest answer is to develop a winning strategy and find out what your max drawdown is likely to be...then double that # to be safe...then you'll likely know.

The equity futures strategy I back-tested over 15 years of data has a max drawdown of around $16k per contract. If I wanted to trade 1 contract of this strategy, I would need $16k at a minimum...probably more like 20-32k just to be safe.

And that's just for 1 contract. You're not going to make a living on 1 contract in most cases.

In my case, I would probably need to trade at least 10 contracts to make a decent living, which means I would need 200-300k to be safe.

That's a lot of salami.

But like anything else...if you have a winning strategy, you increase your size over time as your bankroll grows.

I appreciate the information. Thank you.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Don't have a problem with them being this good. I do have a problem with them getting huge rebates on top of this. They don't need it, they obviously will play the pools anyways. The rebates also do affect their play (making them bet more and thus the more they bet the worse the public in general does). If you know you are getting 10% back no matter what it enables you to apply more aggression (and helps you get through the bad streaks and gives you the insurance/cushion that you do not need to make a profit to make money you only have to perform at better than a -10% roi). It is just a different game when you are being rebated to that degree and no not anybody can get those rebates and succeed, but for those that have the talent the rebates is a complete game changer.

The fact that racing has given up it's future to cater to these players is outright laughable. One day they will figure it out and that day it will be too late.

By the way notice that the caw handle has gone from about 23 to 24% in 2016-2017 to about 35% in 2021. Very small sample but the trend is pretty undeniable. In 5 years will they be up to 45% to 50% of the pool.

Basically racing is crushing the public on non mandatory payout days and the caw teams are crushing the public on mandatory payout days. Either way the public gets crushed and leaves the game.

One would think racing would be analyzing these numbers and being proactive to fix this game or at least improve the game somewhere, somehow, but no, when you have the mindset that the game is strictly entertainment, why concern yourself with such silliness. Feed the whales and hope the game survives. Brilliant philosophy . I just laugh, seriously.

No doubt, rebates encourage more play. I am focusing on the data that says rebates are not needed to for the CAW players or any other player to be in the black betting the P-6 mandatory payouts.

[MJC922]

Scott is correct on the API, the average player requesting the API will get crickets, anyone feel free to test that assertion. Now if you push a lot of money through the windows of the ADW then I suspect you get what you ask for, promptly. Makes sense. It's the way the world works so I don't dwell on it.

Keep in mind there are workarounds but you have to work hard and around, plus have some pretty solid 'automation' skill sets that not one horseplayer in many hundreds has. So yes there's a degree of unfairness in play here but I mean it comes down to how bad do you want it? Either learn the required skill sets or hire someone.

With that being said, there may be more data the API 'exposes' in longer multi-leg wagers or even deeper verticals than you can currently obtain even with workarounds. I can't speak to that as I don't have access to the API. I honestly don't need it because I'm fine with what I have at my disposal but for those who do have it I'm sure it made everything much easier to implement.

[Poindexter]

Andy C, I concur with your last 2 posts.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I was commenting on having an "edge" if someone had the will-pays for the P-6 prior to the start of the first race of the sequence.

I suspect that this is not quite as much of an advantage as some people think. My thinking is closer to yours.

If you were the only person/CAW group with this info it would be a huge advantage (same as if you were the only person that knew just about anything significant about any horse). But when there are multiple players/CAW groups with the same info, they are all going to make wagers on what appears to be the overlaid combinations. So the same overlays they all see will shrink. They could wind up with some underlaid tickets even if they have a process in place to estimate the likely betting.

I suspect (and I don't have any insights at all) that their main edge is solid handicapping, a good understanding of the likely betting patterns of the general public, and the bankroll to cover solid combinations likely to be left off the tickets of smaller bettors.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I suspect that this is not quite as much of an advantage as some people think. My thinking is closer to yours.

If you were the only person/CAW group with this info it would be a huge advantage (same as if you were the only person that knew just about anything significant about any horse). But when there are multiple players/CAW groups with the same info, they are all going to make wagers on what appears to be the overlaid combinations. So the same overlays they all see will shrink. They could wind up with some underlaid tickets even if they have a process in place to estimate the likely betting.

I suspect (and I don't have any insights at all) that their main edge is solid handicapping, a good understanding of the likely betting patterns of the general public, and the bankroll to cover solid combinations likely to be left off the tickets of smaller bettors.

Don't forget the advantage offered by the unemotional computerized betting that the CAW employ. It's a huge advantage to take "emotion" out of a betting enterprise.