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Old 10-13-2022, 12:01 PM   #4501
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All I can say is...this was an unexpected market reaction...

S&P futures rally 175 points off the low in less then two hours...wow...
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Old 10-13-2022, 12:27 PM   #4502
Rex Phinney
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All I can say is...this was an unexpected market reaction...

S&P futures rally 175 points off the low in less then two hours...wow...

Is the market engaging in a game of chicken with the FED? WTF is going on?
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Old 10-13-2022, 01:15 PM   #4503
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Check out the chart of the Dollar or DXY:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

Over at least the past several weeks the SPX and DXY have been tightly correlated.

Every move up in the DXY has been mirrored by a downward move in the SPX.

Likewise, every move down in the DXY has been mirrored by an upward move in the SPX.

That said, here's an (Imo) interesting article at Zerohedge about a plan presented to the ECB (European Central Bank) last week to curb inflation that (according to the author of the article) might be connected to today's reversal.

Stocks Erase CPI Losses After ECB Headlines:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/st...-ecb-headlines

That said, my gut says the reversal is probably the result of the market getting a little too oversold in the short term.

Also check out a chart of the VIX which failed to make a fresh high yesterday, and is down big-time today right now as I type this.

Then check out a chart of the S&P 500 and the VIX together.

For a really high percentage of the most recent short term S&P 500 downward cycles:

Once the VIX closes over 30, it has continually closed at a new high each trading day during each short term downward cycle.

But as soon as the VIX failed to make a new high:

That's been a pretty accurate signal the market is about to reach a short term bottom (almost always within a few trading days.)

Fyi, the VIX failed to make a fresh high yesterday.

I realize hindsight is 20/20... but here we are.


-jp

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Old 10-13-2022, 01:45 PM   #4504
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Yeah, I noticed that about the VIX this morning even as the market was still hanging around the lows...
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Old 10-13-2022, 10:04 PM   #4505
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I for one can't wait to short this market again....I'll be sure to post on here when I do. I'm that excited.
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Old 10-14-2022, 08:32 AM   #4506
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Shorted RTY (Russell Futures) @ 1740.20 with a stop at 1748.2
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Old 10-14-2022, 08:34 AM   #4507
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Why Russell they ask? Because that's where I trade discretionary trades...I use ES solely for automated plays

This is not an automated play
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Old 10-14-2022, 08:39 AM   #4508
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It will kind of be a miracle if I don't get stopped out of this trade...but that's kind of the point with these...relatively small stops looking for not small returns.
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Old 10-14-2022, 08:49 AM   #4509
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And stopped out @ 1748.3 (they added an extra tick of slippage just to say fuck you a bit harder)

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Old 10-14-2022, 10:19 AM   #4510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I for one can't wait to short this market again....I'll be sure to post on here when I do. I'm that excited.
I'm with you.

I'm thinking yesterday's reversal was sparked by a short squeeze, and there's a long way to go before this market forms a bottom.

After yesterday's reversal, and after the S&P was up +40 pts today, I picked up some SPY NOV182022 Puts.

Looking at out of the money puts for Nov 18th 2022 at Nasdaq.com there seemed to be a lot of open interest at 320 and 330.

From a risk/reward standpoint both seemed pretty cheap vs. others with higher strike prices closer to in the money.

So that's what I bought:

320's for 1.84
330's for 2.87

I'm also thinking the Nov 18th expiration date should be enough time for the trade to play out.


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Old 10-14-2022, 10:21 AM   #4511
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Looks like I shorted too early...lol
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Old 10-14-2022, 10:24 AM   #4512
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Looks like I shorted too early...lol
Missed it by one hour.
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Old 10-19-2022, 04:04 PM   #4513
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Tesla needs to keep the good news rolling....

Musk must keep his mouth shut!!!
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Old 10-19-2022, 04:08 PM   #4514
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Revenue miss?
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Old 10-19-2022, 04:18 PM   #4515
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Revenue miss?

yeah...but he always says its delivery issues


watch the market tank tomorrow

Last edited by BroadwayJoe; 10-19-2022 at 04:24 PM.
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