Most Likely Mistakes Made by Beginners

[skipaway100]

The first book I'd suggest is one dealing with the math part of the game (odds, expected value, overlays, underlays).

I know a guy who has been losing at this game for 30 years. If the horse isn't getting bet, he doesn't want it. I recently tried once explaining him about the randomness in the races and the folly of betting even-money favorites but he just stared at me as if I were speaking martian.

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

I don't acknowledge that at all. The premise of the game is pretty simple. Find something few bettors are using to produce a profit. Books just show what other bettors are using. These methods all lose money today. He is far better off using "trial and error" than wasting his time trying learn things that will not show a profit. The only case that can be made for reading books is to learn what will not work.
Youbet a number of years ago put a "beat the guest handicapper" contest over several weekends. The handicapper was a writer whose book is often pushed here. Almost everyone in the contest beat him. It could have been almost any author because the people betting on line back then were miles ahead of anything that had been published to that date.
"Aw, but I was so much smarter then.
I'm dumber than that now." Bob Dylan

I started to get all indignant for your misquoting The Great One, and cry for a pox upon your soul. But then I realized that your twisting of his words incorporates some truth: He was so much smarter then...

[Robert Goren]

For those interested, the actual quote is

"Ah, but I was so much older then,
I'm younger than that now."

[Steven Kolb]

Beginners (Newbies) are soooo vital to all of us. We need them; lots of them, and we need them to keep coming back.
Some common Newbie mistakes (IMO), in no particular order. Money management --> going through their bankroll too fast and leaving before the end of the day - frustrated with their experience.
Race selection management
Wager/bet management --> focusing on higher risk wagers hoping to hit it big. IMO a small percentage of a Newbies bankroll can focus on Superfectas, Pick 4's and Pick 6's; but playing Win, Show and DD's is a little safer and should help them to cash a few more times during their day.
Emotional thinking management --> they need to be in control of themselves and avoid playing dumb. Example - betting half (or all) of their bank roll on that 6/5 shot that cannot lose, but does.

I would (and do) tell Newbies to avoid trying to handicap until they are comfortable with what horse racing and wagering is all about. Bet small, bet a smorgasboard of wagers and have a good time. Hopefully Lady Luck will be on their side and they will go home a winner for the day.

Once a Newbie starts learning how to handicap - using PP's and more - IMO he has left the Beginner level and is now an Intermediate player. For those picky w/ terminology - how about an Apprentice Intermediate player?

The first book I would suggest a Newbie to read is --> The Blood-Horse Authoritive Guide to Betting (2005).
It's small - about 100 pages and just bigger than a pocket book - and it's unintimidating. It can help most Newbies have a quicker understanding of the sport.

As far as authors being winners or losers? For me 2010 was a nasty & terrible year (I lost). 2011 YTD I'm a little ahead. If I can hit just one more P6 before December ($15K +) I will finish the year with a profit. Hopefully I can hit many more than just one... many more... hopefully... and much larger than $15K... hopefully... RE: other authors - I have no clue as to their winnings or losings.

Great post and some great responses.

Good Luck & have an awesome day!

sk

[grant miller]

when I first started (88), i won my first bet! my problem was, i bet tips at o.t.b. and the new york papers,I finally found a good teacher at my o.t.b. (corning n.y.) he gave me clues to the form and I got better but man it was some expensive learning-I bet triples & ex and couldnt win. now i bet w-p-s. on one track(batavia harness or n.y.r. a. to many tracks to bet leads to ruin!

[porchy44]

"Chasing" also known in the poker world as "going on tilt".

[Khanjar]

Many interesting perspectives posted here. I offer my view:

People learn and experience reality in different ways. When I began this handicapping quest in the early 90's I knew nothing. I could not even decipher the DRF - it was like Greek to me.

So I bought books. . .lots of books, about 35 of them. Some were essential to my learning of fundamental handicapping concepts and techniques. Once I learned that, I moved on to Brohamer and Beyer for more advanced concepts and techniques. The whole Brohamer/Sartin Velocity thing really appealed to me, but I also recognized Beyer's Speed as a fundamental not wisely ignored. It took me three weeks in my spare time just to get all of the many necessary formulas for Brohamer-style calculations into my Radio Shack scientific calculator (no PC then). Maintained all of my own data (except DRF PP data). That is how I learned - by myself, with books and experience.

It was a monastic type of life that many would abhor because they learn differently. Some people may require a live tutor or teacher, abjuring the solitary effort of intense self-study. That said, I cannot agree with any advice that includes ignoring books on the subject. For some, that is the best way to learn at least the fundamentals.

But this thread topic is about beginner mistakes. I'm sure we all made plenty of those - mistakes are part of the learning process. That's why we studied those mistakes - so we could learn from them. Of all the possible words of advice to a beginner then, I would offer here, as others also have already done, learn from your losses. Why did the race go as it did? Dig into it. The "Ahas!" will come.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by CapperAl

• Don't read enough books
• Don't practice enough with paper and pencil
• Don't respect the public enough
• Don't keep records of wagers
• Don't study losses
• Don't play devil's advocate with winners -- admit you were lucky
• Don't re-read enough books

Here's my starter list. Add to it.

There are many mistakes that I made when I came into this game many years ago and I believe some of them if not all them are made by beginners today.

First mistake made by some newcomers is that they do not know themselves in respect to gambling. The Nobel winning professor, Kenneth Arrow aptly describes us individually when it comes to risk (gambling) as risk-preferred, risk-against, and risk-neutral.

What this means in horseracing jargon is that we who are risk-preferred bettors will probably prefer to bet long shots or at least non-favorites. The risk-against bettors amongst us tend to like the favorites or low odds horses and the risk-neutral bettors will be indifferent about the odds and wager either way.

The next mistake made by the newcomer is that they typically do not understand the language of the game. For example, what is a furlong, what is meant by WFT, what are the conditions of the race, and etc? This a steep learning curve and many bettors never fully understand this game because they will not spend time to learn the language.

Another mistake is that many newcomers believe what they read in handicapping books and articles is the Holy Grail when comes to betting and winning on racehorses. In North America, legal betting on racehorses is done through a system called pari-mutuel wagering. Simply stated, pari-mutuel wagering is bettor against bettor and the house (the racetrack) take a cut. Therefore why would any rational author reveal their secret to making money to the public?

You don’t have to be a software programmer, a mathematician, a statistician, or a physicist to wager and win on betting racehorses, but understanding some rudimentary concepts of those disciplines will help immensely because handicapping is a process called data analysis and if you are weak in those areas you will lose to the bettors who are strong in those areas.

There are many other areas that a newcomer should learn and concentrate on before getting involved in this tough complex game and I am sure other posters will add to the list.

[trackrat59]

I think the Newbies reading this thread are now confused. "Do I read books, do I not read books"?

Nothing wrong with reading a book. Grab a beginner book like Betting on Horse Racing For Dummies by Richard Eng. This book will give a beginner the basics. For the horse racing lingo alone, it's worth the read.

Newbies should know that they will need to work on three different skill sets;
1. how to read the past performances (PP's) - handicapping
2. how to place bets
3. money management

I would recommend getting a journal. A thick one. Keep it with you as you read, bet, study, listen, talk, etc. Write down what I call nuggets. Thoughts, lessons, ideas that make sense to you. Lessons you learned the easy and hard way and so on. I keep a journal and I refer back to it all the time.

Newbies should understand that they can't be good at everything. Along the way try and identify your nitch. Here's what I mean. Some gamblers are good at betting Supers. Some are good at Pick 3 and Pick 4 bets. Some focus on the Pick 6. The lingo on this is vertical bets and horizontal bets. Vertical being within one race like a Super and horizontal means betting across a few races like a Pick 3. This game is difficult enough. If you find that you are good at something stick with it.

Anyone that tells you "I have some info on a horse and he/she is supposed to run today" you run as fast as you can the other way.

Learn to recognize and pay attention to your instinct.

Enjoy the game. Do try and read up on and learn the history of the game. Horse racing is so rich in history and that gets lost and it shouldn't. Plus, I promise you'll learn stuff that will help you with your handicapping.

Something you should read about is breeding. It's fascinating stuff and it will help you with your selections. Find out who are the best sires. Those that produce offspring that run on dirt best at specific distances and those that produce great turf runners. This is a VERY interesting part of the game.

Good luck to all the newbies.

[Light]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Youbet a number of years ago put a "beat the guest handicapper" contest over several weekends. The handicapper was a writer whose book is often pushed here. Almost everyone in the contest beat him.

Used to be guest handicappers on Saturdays at GG in the old days.(Great cards too). Beyer, Quinn, Prof G. Jones, Olmstead etc. You could feel the buzz and the hype from these "celebrity" horse players. As a novice,I put my faith in these "professionals" and assumed they could easily out handicap me. But each time my picks kicked ass while these 'know it all's" sucked big time. My problem as a novice was that I cost myself serious money abandoning my picks for theirs. I had assumed that since these "pros" didn't mention my horses in certain races,I must of handicapped those races wrong. After all ,they wrote books.

Moral of story. Just because a guy writes a book,doesn't mean he understands the difference between book theory and track reality. They are two different worlds. Learning to trust yourself and your own experiences in horse racing or in life is the maturing stage.

[TrifectaMike]

Although the horses run the races with a jockey on their back, a trainer to condition them and an owner that pays the bill, in the end it's a game of odds. Learn all you can about odds. That would be my advice to anyone entering this game.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Pell Mell]

Let me take a different direction here. I have been successful at this game for over 50 yrs. I went through the whole process of speed and pace handicapping, read every thing I could get my hands on and talked to lots of very good handicappers.

I can tell you right now, handicapping is not complicated if one knows what is pertinent to the race and what is not. You don't need a bunch of data or computer programs.

The biggest mistake bettors make is they overlook the obvious. Once you get the hang of things you'll find your first impressions of a race are best. If you dig too deep you can make a case for just about every horse in the race and then you become subject to getting caught in the switches. JMO

[Robert Goren]

Back to original topic of this thread which I unintentionally led astray. The biggest mistake a newbie makes is making a bet at all. But putting that aside, the next biggest mistake is going to the track, OTB or simulcast center. He can cut his cost by a lot by playing at home on a computer. Plus he can get rebates that do add up in the long run. A 5% rebate means that one in 20 bets are free. The one thing he does need to read is an explanation of the past porformances. We just had a long time poster ask about about something that has been in the PPs since before I bought my first DRF 45 years ago. I thought every horse player knew that, but I guess not. One big mistake that young people make is drinking while they are gambling. I have a friend who is as good at picking winning horses with a price out the form as I have ever seen when is sober. The trouble is he is never sober for long when he at the track.

[speculus]

The biggest mistake a newbie makes, generally after cashing a few tickets, is assuming that racing is EASY money--a mistake for which this game punishes him brutally--by ruining his money, career prospects, job, future, family, peace of mind, and finally his confidence.

For the lucky few who stumble onto a winning method that is universal and consistent enough to make high profits possible, the biggest mistake is to not to develop the discipline of playing only those races which have historically proved to be profitable for the winning method.

[Irish Boy]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Back to original topic of this thread which I unintentionally led astray. The biggest mistake a newbie makes is making a bet at all. But putting that aside, the next biggest mistake is going to the track, OTB or simulcast center. He can cut his cost by a lot by playing at home on a computer. Plus he can get rebates that do add up in the long run. A 5% rebate means that one in 20 bets are free. The one thing he does need to read is an explanation of the past porformances. We just had a long time poster ask about about something that has been in the PPs since before I bought my first DRF 45 years ago. I thought every horse player knew that, but I guess not. One big mistake that young people make is drinking while they are gambling. I have a friend who is as good at picking winning horses with a price out the form as I have ever seen when is sober. The trouble is he is never sober for long when he at the track.

So...people shouldn't play at all, but if they do, they shouldn't read about their hobby, go see it live, or enjoy themselves.