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Old 06-12-2017, 08:17 PM   #1
SuperPickle
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Randy Moss Supports Changing the TC


The twitter thread is the worth the read because it debunks several popular justifications to not change. (I.E. multiple winners of TC have done it at different setups and my favorite "don't fix what's not broken." First off every aspect of racing is broken. This is just less broken. Second, both MLB and NFL have made massive changes to their games when they were the biggest game in town (interleague play, DH, playoffs, divisions, overtime, DH, etc.) Successful businesses understand you need to constantly change to stay ahead. Meanwhile sports like boxing and golf have stayed traditional. how's that working?
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Old 06-12-2017, 08:32 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperPickle View Post
https://twitter.com/randy_moss_tv/st...85716838617088

The twitter thread is the worth the read because it debunks several popular justifications to not change. (I.E. multiple winners of TC have done it at different setups and my favorite "don't fix what's not broken." First off every aspect of racing is broken. This is just less broken. Second, both MLB and NFL have made massive changes to their games when they were the biggest game in town (interleague play, DH, playoffs, divisions, overtime, DH, etc.) Successful businesses understand you need to constantly change to stay ahead. Meanwhile sports like boxing and golf have stayed traditional. how's that working?
Why is having more frequent TC winners a better outcome than having fewer TC winners?

Asking seriously, my opinion isn't fully formed yet.
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Old 06-12-2017, 08:48 PM   #3
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Are these type of horses any more likely to run in the Preakness if the spacing was longer. Don't you think it is to be expected that a stronger mile and a half horse chooses not to cut back in distance (if coming form the Derby) for the Preakness?


The idea that spreading out the races will improve the fields is also quite dangerous. Increasing the gap between the races may knock horses off the TC path earlier, as they may continue to choose to rest before targeting the lesser Derbies around the fall, much as many runners do now.
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Old 06-12-2017, 08:49 PM   #4
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If they did alter the spacing of the Triple Crown Racing, what would the new spacing look like...?

Derby, then 6 weeks to Preakness, then another 6 weeks for the Belmont Stakes...?

Just wondering what some alternatives might look like to understand if change is warranted at this point.
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Old 06-12-2017, 08:50 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Why is having more frequent TC winners a better outcome than having fewer TC winners?

Asking seriously, my opinion isn't fully formed yet.
I'm 100% convinced moving the dates and having more time in between races makes it harder not easier. The biggest bullshit argument is longer gaps make the races easier. I'm 100% convinced that while more time gives the winner more time to recoup it also gives every other three year old a chance to recoup and improve.

Or to put it another way. The English, Irish, Japanese and Hong Kong Triple Crown's all race the last leg months after the third. All four of those Triple Crown's have less winners than the U.S. No one has won the English TC since 1970. There's only been 7 horses won the Japanese TC since 1941. And only one horse has won in Hong Kong.

There's zero evidence to suggest adding spacing makes them easier. It just makes them different.
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Old 06-12-2017, 08:56 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by iamt View Post
Are these type of horses any more likely to run in the Preakness if the spacing was longer. Don't you think it is to be expected that a stronger mile and a half horse chooses not to cut back in distance (if coming form the Derby) for the Preakness?


The idea that spreading out the races will improve the fields is also quite dangerous. Increasing the gap between the races may knock horses off the TC path earlier, as they may continue to choose to rest before targeting the lesser Derbies around the fall, much as many runners do now.
Imagine if you put the Belmont 5-6 weeks out before the BC and 5-6 weeks after the Travers. Race it the fall like the final leg of the Japanese and English Triple Crowns.

That would place it at the end of the Euro season. Do you know kind of Euros you would get for that race? Legit Euro stayers with multiple wins going a mile and a half on turf and Poly. You'd get big time Coolmoore horses.

You're telling that field isn't harder to beat that this past Saturday?
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:03 PM   #7
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The English Triple Crown ranges rom 1 mile to 1 3/4 miles, the Japanese form 1 1/4 miles to 1m 7/8s while HK is form a mile to a 1 1/2 miles but for open ages.

They difficulty in them isn't necessarily a product of the spacing but the sheer demands winning on such differing distances presents.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:09 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperPickle View Post
https://twitter.com/randy_moss_tv/st...85716838617088

The twitter thread is the worth the read because it debunks several popular justifications to not change. (I.E. multiple winners of TC have done it at different setups and my favorite "don't fix what's not broken." First off every aspect of racing is broken. This is just less broken. Second, both MLB and NFL have made massive changes to their games when they were the biggest game in town (interleague play, DH, playoffs, divisions, overtime, DH, etc.) Successful businesses understand you need to constantly change to stay ahead. Meanwhile sports like boxing and golf have stayed traditional. how's that working?
Maybe you and Randy can explain to me exactly how it's broken at the moment.

The other thread where we had this argument, I don't recall you offering a single concrete reason that says, HEY, THIS THING IS BROKEN and it NEEDS TO BE FIXED!

Really? How is it so broken? Attendance falling? No. Handle falling? No. TV Ratings falling? No.

What is it that is SOOOOOOO broken with the TC that we need to materially alter things?

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-12-2017 at 09:10 PM.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:09 PM   #9
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Honestly at 5-6 weeks before the BC?

Any 3yo with a hint of talent but distance limitations is being set for the BC mile of Classic.

Any 10f horse with realistic classic chances, expect for those with a TC on the line is skipping the Belmont. Between the prep runs to get fit for the Belmont and the demands it places and the lack of value (A BC Classic win is worth far more).

European stars aren't turning up. You're running the race just prior to the Arc which will be the main aim for the good ones. The BC marathon showed how willing Europeans were to send out their stayers for a dirt race.


Would it be harder to win a triple crown under this, yes but only because there is more chance for a contender to have tapered off or be forced to miss the race. Does it improve the actual quality of the Belmont field, not in my eyes.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:13 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
If they did alter the spacing of the Triple Crown Racing, what would the new spacing look like...?

Derby, then 6 weeks to Preakness, then another 6 weeks for the Belmont Stakes...?
The Preakness is now run on the 3rd Saturday of May. The most they could move it would be a week, because Pimlico's meet ends after that last weekend in May. After that, you start running into scheduling problems at Belmont, because their spring meet ends very early in July.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:16 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Maybe you and Randy can explain to me exactly how it's broken at the moment.

The other thread where we had this argument, I don't recall you offering a single concrete reason that says, HEY, THIS THING IS BROKEN and it NEEDS TO BE FIXED!

Really? How is it so broken? Attendance falling? No. Handle falling? No. TV Ratings falling? No.

What is it that is SOOOOOOO broken with the TC that we need to materially alter things?
I cannot think of any reason at all.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:18 PM   #12
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Interesting selection of timeframe. Nice round number of 18 years. Of course, if you took the last 20 years, surprise surprise, its 10 and 10. I guess his slight "majority" by arbitrarily using only the last 18 Belmonts is enough evidence to revamp the whole schedule.

Never mind that if you went back 36 years the count goes to 26 running in-between the running of the Derby and the Belmont and 10 who "ran Derby weekend"--this bit of clever detail was so Moss could include Rags To Riches--but not again before the Belmont.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:28 PM   #13
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I have heard a lot of people in the media, many of whom know zero about horse racing, complaining that the rarity of TC winners shows that currently it's "too hard", and the "rules" need to be changed to make it "fairer".

Ir sounds like Moss might be in this camp.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:29 PM   #14
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There are a few things that strike me. First, the Kentucky Derby is primarily an indication of precociousness. If you remember back to high school, there were guys who were 17 or 18 and had beards and fully adult bodies, and guys the same ages who looked more like 15 or 16. But by the time everyone was 23, the ones who looked like 15 or 16 had caught up. That is part of the reason why you see horses emerging in the late summer or fall who weren't part of the TC, and horses who looked good in the TC races who all of a sudden were getting beat (I don't care if you're a Chromie - Bayern was a better horse by November).

I get that the Derby is important to horseracing for hype reasons, but it is an overrated race in my opinion.

But if that's how soon you want to run a 3YO race at a long distance, fine. But taking young horses and subjecting them to the TC grind isn't necessarily in the best interest of anyone, and may not even be in the best interest of the sport. Might it not be better for racing to extend the TC season so that the Derby is the first Saturday in May, the Preakness is Memorial Day weekend, and the Belmont is the weekend around 4th of July. That way you have about four weeks between the first two legs, and five weeks between the second and third legs. You've got about a month after that to the Haskell, and about eight weeks to the Travers. It's pretty much a perfect schedule to prep for the BC.

It also takes away the advantage to horses running in the Derby and skipping the Preakness.

Now tell me why that would seriously damage the importance of the TC, which by the way is (1) only really important to horseplayers anyway, (2) is only important to everyone else if there is the potential of a TC winner, and (3) a change everyone will forget about in three years.

Last edited by HalvOnHorseracing; 06-12-2017 at 09:32 PM.
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Old 06-12-2017, 09:31 PM   #15
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Maybe you and Randy can explain to me exactly how it's broken at the moment.

The other thread where we had this argument, I don't recall you offering a single concrete reason that says, HEY, THIS THING IS BROKEN and it NEEDS TO BE FIXED!

Really? How is it so broken? Attendance falling? No. Handle falling? No. TV Ratings falling? No.

What is it that is SOOOOOOO broken with the TC that we need to materially alter things?

First off your premise that we need to justify changing it versus trying new things is something I philosophically disagree with. So I don't buy into it. The NFL changed their playoff format, overtime rule and even added two conversions while being the most watched sport in the country. Neutral only exists on a car. Either you're moving forward or backward and racing is going backwards.


The handle was down this year. They're saying $124 million versus $122 last year but on Apples to Apples it's down if you back out Japan and new outlets that didn't offer it. It's creative math.

But even more telling ESPN won't even bid on it. The large owner of sports media in the world dismiss your event as non-event. I would say that in itself defines broken.

But here's the real reason to change it. You're doing it wrong. The Monday after the Triple Crown every one involved in horse racing asks the same question "how do we maintain casual fans outside the five weeks of the Triple Crown?"

The answer is make the Triple Crown LONGER. That's how successful sports leagues solve for this problem. The NBA has added playoff games. The NFL added playoff games. Do you here anyone crying about how will we compare the 2016 Cavs to the 1983 Lakers? Racing fans need to get over this faux traditional system.

And I remember I said faux. We've changed the distances, the tracks and the spacing of these races multiple times. We have TC winners under different setups.

So when you say no to even exploring changing these races (again keep in mind the format of these races and every other horse race on earth has changed ) you're not a traditionalist. You're saying the 2017 version of the Triple Crown is the ideal, perfect setup of the Triple Crown.
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