Quote:
Originally Posted by omar2
* NO HANDICAPPING INVOLVED.
All one has to do is 2 things:
a) Identify the first 2-3 race choices; and
b) check the correlations between the exacta prices and the tote odds.
Someone once said the truth of mathematics is absolute, I think I heard or read that somewhere before. This method I'm going to show you I perfected in the late 70's. For 2 years I did nothing but chart the exactas and doubles at Aqu & Bel- no handicapping PERIOD. Back then all I had to work with was the tv monitors, so I had to write fast. Today I have the luxury of printing out all the exactas at any point in time, 12 horse field, no problem. To the best of my knowledge only 1 other person did what I was doing, a man called The Baron whom I never met. He was in the clubhouse, I stayed in the grandstand. Back then they called me Clipboard. I needed something to write on so I used a clipboard with my checkerboard squared paper.
Now you can do this method by identifying the winner or key horse to use in exotics also.
I recommend doing this with 3-4 minutes to post because just like tote odds, exacta prices will change also. For my purposes here I'm using the final screen odds and prices.
This example race is from MNR 10-17-22, race 4.
You'll notice the favorite[#1] is 1-2 and 2nd choice#2] is 2-1. The #4 was a distant 3rd choice at 9-1.
Now look at the exacta prices. So the #2 is 4x the price of the #1 on the board but only 1.5x in the exactas. Note how close the 1-4/4-1 combinations are in the exactas but not so with the 2-4/4-2 combos. THAT'S IT, THAT'S ALL U NEED TO KNOW to toss the #1 as the winner! Now you can take it a step further. Check out the exacta prices #1 w/ 3-4-8 and the #2 w/3-4-8. when checking the 3-4 and 4-8 combos you'll see the closeness of the later, not so with 3-4. Toss the #3. Also the 1-8/8-1 and the 2-8/8-2 have a further spread than with the #4. For the purpose of just trying to eliminate our work is done.
The race ran 2-4-8-1.
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Looked at your example. I see absolutely nothing irregular with that board.
At 4 minutes to post the favorite is 1/2 and 2nd favorite is 2-1. The closing odds were the same. When I look at the exacta payoffs you posted with 4 minutes to post, the favorite is consistent with a 1/2 shot (did it quickly in my head but came up with $68 getting back $100 in the exacta pool the 2 was maybe more consistent with a 9/5 shot (requiring about $36 to get back a 100). If I was making my own odd lines and handicapped like the public I would make the favorite maybe 4/5 and the 2nd favorite 5/2. Based off those numbers that gives me a fair line on the exacta of $5.60 with the favorite on top and $9.00 with the 2nd favorite on top. The probables at 4 mins to post were $5.80 and $9.00.
The math is basically that there is a 55% chance the favorite wins and if he does win there is a 28% out of the 45% chance(rest of the field winning probability) that the 2nd favorite beats the rest of the field and come 2nd (or about a 34.5% chance the favorite over 2nd favorite exacta comes in). With the second favorite winning you are talking 28.57% chance the 2nd favorite wins and should he win the favorite should have a (55.5% chance out of the 71.43% chance the rest of the field has). the .5555*77.76 or a 43.2 or about a 22.2% chance of the 2nd favorite winning and the favorite coming second making it a 7/2 shot or $9.00 fair payout. Now I can understand someone thinking that math is a bit bogus, because of the nature of certain horses in certain races. Some horses You might think have a 55% chance of winning but if they don't win that means something went awry, and you may not have the same confidence in the horse beating the rest of the field given that you know he did not win the race. Suspicious droppers are horses that often fit this bill. You think they will likely win, but if they don't, will they run 2nd or will they run 5th, or will they run last. Who knows. But using generic math the assumption that because the favorite is .5-1 and the 2nd favorite is 2-1 there should be a 4-1 disparity in exactas (does that mean the favorite on top should be $5.00 and the 2nd favorite on top 20?) is not accurate. Actually like to see a screenshot of a similar situation (1/2 favorite, 2-1 2nd favorite where you think the favorite should win, for comparisons sakes).
