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Old 10-24-2022, 02:27 PM   #1
Brisk Urging
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After Secretariat's Belmont....

After running the huge fig of 136 in the Belmont according to Beyer

Secretariat lost 2x aftwards


Flightline ran a 126 can he lose after that huge effort?

I will be betting against him

Either i rip my tickets or i see history..

Last edited by Brisk Urging; 10-24-2022 at 02:28 PM.
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Old 10-24-2022, 02:53 PM   #2
westernmassbob
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Originally Posted by Brisk Urging View Post
After running the huge fig of 136 in the Belmont according to Beyer

Secretariat lost 2x aftwards


Flightline ran a 126 can he lose after that huge effort?

I will be betting against him

Either i rip my tickets or i see history..
There is no comparison. I always try to find a weakness and look for a way to beat a favorite. Who has a shot at beating Flightline? Nobody! so i will single in all picks . Good luck though.
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Old 10-24-2022, 05:04 PM   #3
v j stauffer
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Originally Posted by Brisk Urging View Post
After running the huge fig of 136 in the Belmont according to Beyer

Secretariat lost 2x aftwards


Flightline ran a 126 can he lose after that huge effort?

I will be betting against him

Either i rip my tickets or i see history..
How long in between races for each?
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Old 10-24-2022, 05:43 PM   #4
elhelmete
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After running the huge fig of 136 in the Belmont according to Beyer

Secretariat lost 2x aftwards
.
He won twice as many times as lost after the Belmont.
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Old 10-24-2022, 06:01 PM   #5
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How long in between races for each?
Hmmm…..

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Old 10-24-2022, 06:09 PM   #6
Brisk Urging
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He won twice as many times as lost after the Belmont.
Funny you're cool
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Old 10-24-2022, 06:52 PM   #7
elhelmete
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Funny you're cool
He had 2 losses before the Belmont too! Pattern!
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Old 10-24-2022, 10:17 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Brisk Urging View Post
After running the huge fig of 136 in the Belmont according to Beyer

Secretariat lost 2x aftwards


Flightline ran a 126 can he lose after that huge effort?

I will be betting against him

Either i rip my tickets or i see history..
The way the track is playing its certainly not going to hurt him.
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Old 10-24-2022, 10:30 PM   #9
v j stauffer
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Hmmm…..
The Whitney probably wasn't a bounce.

The Woodward was 100% a reaction/bounce.

No matter how great when the run crazy fast they will react.

Sadler is acutely aware of this as evidenced by the spacing of FLIGHTLINE'S races.

He CAN get beat. They all can get beat.

IMO if FLIGHTLINE loses it's because he's unsound.

He's never been sound. Not many would be running that fast.
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Old 10-25-2022, 10:34 AM   #10
HorsemenHeist
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The Whitney probably wasn't a bounce.

The Woodward was 100% a reaction/bounce.

No matter how great when the run crazy fast they will react.

Sadler is acutely aware of this as evidenced by the spacing of FLIGHTLINE'S races.

He CAN get beat. They all can get beat.

IMO if FLIGHTLINE loses it's because he's unsound.

He's never been sound. Not many would be running that fast.
Agree with Vic, the only way Flightline gets beat is if he gets injured.


The spacing gets mentioned, this race next week will be his first start since September 3, only 63 days after the Pacific Classic. That is by far the least amount of times he will have between starts. Sadler says that the horse needs 30 days to recover before training, can you win the Breeders Cup Classic with such light training, leaving just 33 days to run that next 127 beyer? He will need to bring his A game to a track that he's not that familiar with for a trainer with a 1 for a gazillion Breeders Cup record. The only bets I'd make on the race would be chancing Flightline getting beat. Especially with all the hype Fanduel TV and ABR have put on the horse, there are other fantastic horses in the race.

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Old 10-25-2022, 10:52 AM   #11
v j stauffer
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Agree with Vic, the only way Flightline gets beat is if he gets injured.


The spacing gets mentioned, this race next week will be his first start since September 3, only 63 days after the Pacific Classic. That is by far the least amount of times he will have between starts. Sadler says that the horse needs 30 days to recover before training, can you win the Breeders Cup Classic with such light training, leaving just 33 days to run that next 127 beyer? He will need to bring his A game to a track that he's not that familiar with for a trainer with a 1 for a gazillion Breeders Cup record. The only bets I'd make on the race would be chancing Flightline getting beat. Especially with all the hype Fanduel TV and ABR have put on the horse, there are other fantastic horses in the race.
I'm not suggesting he'll be injured.

I'm saying that a horse who runs as fast as him will have a hard time replicating that effort.

Even with lots of rest in between.

In two months he'll be five years old.

I'm sure he was just as fast when he was a two year old.

I'm also sure they knew if they turned him loose at that age his less than mature body couldn't handle it.

As for him getting beat a week from Saturday. I sincerely doubt that will happen.

He's so much better than everyone else he can regress quite a bit off the Pacific Classic and still get the job done.

Do you guys think the riders on the other horses might ride differently trying to secure 2nd by not taking him on rather than risk getting nothing by challenging him?

I'm convinced that's what Johnny V did last year with MEDINA SPIRIT. Nothing wrong with 2nd money with that purse.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:14 AM   #12
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I'm not suggesting he'll be injured.

I'm saying that a horse who runs as fast as him will have a hard time replicating that effort.

Even with lots of rest in between.

In two months he'll be five years old.

I'm sure he was just as fast when he was a two year old.

I'm also sure they knew if they turned him loose at that age his less than mature body couldn't handle it.

As for him getting beat a week from Saturday. I sincerely doubt that will happen.

He's so much better than everyone else he can regress quite a bit off the Pacific Classic and still get the job done.

Do you guys think the riders on the other horses might ride differently trying to secure 2nd by not taking him on rather than risk getting nothing by challenging him?

I'm convinced that's what Johnny V did last year with MEDINA SPIRIT. Nothing wrong with 2nd money with that purse.
Life is Good is certainly the key to the race. That is his edge over Flightline, who can be shaky out of the gate. He can gain a couple lengths at the start, I cannot see the jock sacrificing this advantage, so I think he is a send. What works out in Flightline's favor tho is that LIG has so much speed he will space the field out and Flightline can eventually get outside of LIG if he is drawn inside.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:16 AM   #13
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Epicenter is an interesting conundrum, he doesn't have to win the Classic to be 3 year old of the year, just have a good showing. And with how he's been ridden the last couple times well off the pace, I can see him being ridden for a place.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:18 AM   #14
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And this is kind of spitballing, but what if LIG goes to the front and Hot Rod Charlie (or another with speed) can box in Flightline? Is there a scenario like Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes where he got really rank and by the time the jock got outside the damage was done?
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Old 10-25-2022, 12:19 PM   #15
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Don't overlook Taiba, one of three possible Baffert runners (Defunded, Country Grammer), who is a strong finisher & can pick up all the pieces if the big guy should falter.
Not sure if Baffert will run all three, but I can see him relaying on the front end to try to push LIG, Flightline and anyone other E types into a suicidal pace & set it up for the 3yr old.

I give Taiba a very good chance to be in the exacta
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