Arrogateless Trifecta

[menifee]

Paid $108.65 for .50. I know it was only a 5 horse field, but were there that many people betting for him not to finish in the top 3 in the tri pool? That seems awfully light.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by menifee

Paid $108.65 for .50. I know it was only a 5 horse field, but were there that many people betting for him not to finish in the top 3 in the tri pool? That seems awfully light.

A lot of people mindlessly box trifectas. I've seen stuff like this before.

The value was obviously in the WPS pools.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by menifee

Paid $108.65 for .50. I know it was only a 5 horse field, but were there that many people betting for him not to finish in the top 3 in the tri pool? That seems awfully light.

that seems impossible, I wasn't playing and don't play these type of situations, but I think I would have played Arrogate on top over 2 others for $50 tri. Im sure others would have tried to hammer it like that who have more money than me

[RunForTheRoses]

On another horsey site someone is saying the non Arrogate DDs were pounded while Arogate's went up late.

Exacta and Q seem low.

[Robert Fischer]

It's a great example of what effective takeout looks like.

5 horse field= unbettable trifectas.

add in 24% vig and 50cent minimums and it's a complete joke.

[VigorsTheGrey]

There is just something about this race this doesn't add up....

[theiman]

If my math and takeout #'s are correct, (not 100% sure)

Tri pool was $211,805
Takeout 23.68%
takeout = $50,155
Payout $ available $161,650 ($211,805-$50,155)
$1 payout = $217.30($.50 =$108.65)
Thus there were 743 winning $1 tickets or 1486 winning $.50 tickets out of 423,610 combos bet.

What I also found interesting in the Pick 6 there were still 118 live tickets going into the 10th race, and no jackpot(one winner tickets) There were 4 horses 23/1, 30/1, 40/1, and 50/1 which all had at least 2 winning tickets on them. Not sure if this seems odd.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by theiman

If my math and takeout #'s are correct, (not 100% sure)

Tri pool was $211,805
Takeout 23.68%
takeout = $50,155
Payout $ available $161,650 ($211,805-$50,155)
$1 payout = $217.30($.50 =$108.65)
Thus there were 743 winning $1 tickets or 1486 winning $.50 tickets out of 423,610 combos bet.

What I also found interesting in the Pick 6 there were still 118 live tickets going into the 10th race, and no jackpot(one winner tickets) There were 4 horses 23/1, 30/1, 40/1, and 50/1 which all had at least 2 winning tickets on them. Not sure if this seems odd.

At the risk of redboarding (but not really, because I don't bet the pick 6), it seems to me that a winning pick 6 strategy seeks to hit them where they ain't, to use the baseball expression. IOW if you single the horse that everyone singles, then you have just cut the expected value of your tickets. Whereas spreading a race like the San Diego gives you a shot at a big pick 6 payoff if something screwy happens. So it doesn't surprise me that much that there were some live tickets.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

A lot of people mindlessly box trifectas. I've seen stuff like this before.

The value was obviously in the WPS pools.

value to betting on horses is always in the straight mutuel pools. the tricks are very tricky!

[Bennie]

I thought I saw Bob Baffert at the SAM machine hitting repeat,repeat,repeat........ just before the race. think he knew something?

[olddaddy]

Originally Posted by Bennie

I thought I saw Bob Baffert at the SAM machine hitting repeat,repeat,repeat........ just before the race. think he knew something?

He would need a lots of those tickets to make up for his trainers share of the purse.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

At the risk of redboarding (but not really, because I don't bet the pick 6), it seems to me that a winning pick 6 strategy seeks to hit them where they ain't, to use the baseball expression. IOW if you single the horse that everyone singles, then you have just cut the expected value of your tickets. Whereas spreading a race like the San Diego gives you a shot at a big pick 6 payoff if something screwy happens. So it doesn't surprise me that much that there were some live tickets.

I can see why you don't bet the P-6! Strategizing to try and win a jackpot P-6 is a fools game.

Singling horses that "everyone singles" doesn't mean you automatically cut your EV. If you agreed that Arrogate was a legitimate 1/9 horse you would only have your EV cut if he was bet on more than 90% of the total tickets.

Most good P-6 players have exceptional instincts for recognizing races that are chaotic and spread accordingly.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I can see why you don't bet the P-6! Strategizing to try and win a jackpot P-6 is a fools game.

Singling horses that "everyone singles" doesn't mean you automatically cut your EV. If you agreed that Arrogate was a legitimate 1/9 horse you would only have your EV cut if he was bet on more than 90% of the total tickets.

Most good P-6 players have exceptional instincts for recognizing races that are chaotic and spread accordingly.

I keep track of it more in the pick 3's, which I do play, but you definitely gain very little value by hitting the 5th betting choice, at 8 to 1, in a wide open race where everyone is spreading. Whereas if you can beat a big favorite, you can win a bundle.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I keep track of it more in the pick 3's, which I do play, but you definitely gain very little value by hitting the 5th betting choice, at 8 to 1, in a wide open race where everyone is spreading. Whereas if you can beat a big favorite, you can win a bundle.

You can't win a bundle unless the other 5 races come in. Chasing "value" on a race by race basis in selecting a P-6 ticket is really a poor method. I would be far more apt to try and beat the big favorite in other pools. If I thought Arrogate was a 1-1 horse and not a 1-9 horse I am sure as hell not going to leave him off of my P-6 ticket and lose 50% coverage on a race.

I have had several large P-6 scores finding the 8-1 5th choices. There is not a higher percentage of money bet on the 8-1 in the P-6 pool than there is in the win pool. Hence I am getting at least 8-1 or more. Other spreaders don't take the value out of the selection.