ROI data for individual bettors - percentile, etc.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

More like 4-in-1000.

Is this supposed to be how many people make a profit in a lifetime, a year, what's the time frame? And is this based off of actual data?

[headhawg]

Actual data on this topic is specious at best.

[romankoz]

Discussing profit on turnover is a strange beast as the number of bets is the key. I had a terrific year last year on my best bets but there were only 93 of them. My task this year is to try and replicate last year but if I have another 93 it is still only 186 which most will agree is a low number in the racing world. Anyhow all we can do is have a go!

[SBD400]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Actual data on this topic is specious at best.

The ADW providers certainly have the data, I assume they keep this data for close to the vest though.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by SG4

Is this supposed to be how many people make a profit in a lifetime, a year, what's the time frame? And is this based off of actual data?

The STATE of being a "winning player" is, of course, up to the individual.

Clearly, a winning day does not make a player a "long-term winner."

Neither does a winning month.

In my years in the racing business (since 1990) I've known perhaps 2 dozen players who I am convinced were long-term winners.

Those divide nicely into two groups:

1) Grinders
2) Big Hitters

Grinders win every month and rarely, if ever, refill their accounts.

Big Hitters play an up-and-down game, but always get the money when they tally up at the end of the year.

As Ron Cox, a full-time pro, said to me long ago, "At the end of the year I can trace my net win for the year back to EIGHT PLAYING DAYS."

BTW, I've never known a single "ever so patient, lay-in-the-weeds, make 3 bets a week" player who was a professional. The pools just won't handle making 150 bets a year to generate (say) $250,000. (in today's economic dollars)

Not saying they don't exist, just saying I've never known one.

Summary:
A grinder who can win for a year - while churning through (say) 40+ bets a week; 2000 bets per year - IS PROBABLY A WINNING PLAYER.

In fact, such a player who can win for 6 months will probably continue to win - until the game changes and he has to retool.

This happens almost every year or three in the whale era.
______________
Veracity & Reliability
This is a combination of survey data that I collected years ago, and personal experience dealing with players.

It would have to fall into the "largely anecdotal" category.

[Dave Schwartz]

I'd like to clarify a couple of things about my last post.

Probably nobody will resonate with this but I'm going to give it a try anyway.
____________
Understand that these are all estimates with zero corroborative evidence.

1. I believe 4 out of 1000 race goers are long-term profitable.

2. That includes ALL horse bettors; everyone who bets at least a handful of times per year.

3. My belief is that the more often one plays, the greater the likelihood that they get into that 0.4%.

4. I also believe the same for those who buy books, training videos, software, subscribe to data/PDF services, etc.

5. I believe that the players that only bet on the Biggest Race Days are the epitome of those who don't have a chance.

CONCLUSION #1
100% of the winners will be concentrated in that group of people who make ANY EFFORT to improve.

This is purely a guess, but I would say that at least 60% of ALL BETTORS fall into the class of making zero effort to improve.

So, starting with 1,000 players and 4 winners, that means we can remove 600 as losers.

1,000
 -600
_____
  400

CONCLUSION #2
(That cuts the 1,000 down to 400, with all 4 winners in that group.)

We are now at 1%.
1-out-of-100.


CONCLUSION #3
Here are some things I know about PROFESSIONAL PLAYERS.

1) Every single one of them keeps detailed records of their betting.

Not necessarily deep, searchable records, but, at an absolute minimum, they have access to money bet and money won on a daily basis.

2) Every one of them Looks at that data frequently because The State of Winning can be very fragile.

It's not just about how much is in their account, or withdrawals minus deposits.

What they are looking for is things that indicate a change they need to be aware of. IOW, if their approach is not doing well, they need to know as soon as possible so they can get a handle on what might be broken.

CONCLUSION #4
Every single one of them, without exception, is 100% reality-based.

It is simply impossible to become a long-term winner if one cannot face the reality that their approach is working or failing.

In my own, weak, nothing to read forum, there is this ever so valuable post from earlier this week.

Recap of 2022 (by Tony Kofalt)

This is what a professional player looks like.

CONCLUSION #5
Moving from losing to winning is not just a matter of better handicapping, money management, bet sizing, etc.

It is about changing one's outlook on the game.

Most players I speak with think that they are one little tweak from being winning players.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Professionals see the game differently.

Just as running a real business is different than mom mixing up a pitcher of lemonade so little Muffy can sell it on the sidewalk to make some money.

While that is a wonderful place to start for a 9-year old, the reality component is missing.

In 1999, a fine fellow named Jack Burkholder called me to enquire about my software. He said that he was a professional player who had supported himself 100% since 1976.

I asked him, "Why are you calling me?"

His response is legendary:

You don't think I am doing the same thing now as I was in 1976, do you?

I instantly knew that I was speaking with the real deal.

Please note: This is not a sales pitch for my software. He was a winning player long before he and I connected.
He still is after all these years.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

My final conclusion is that at least 10% of the people on this forum could be long-term winners. I think the parimutuel system could support that.

That's purely a guess.

Not professionals. That's probably limited to about 1% or less.


Note: I am not a professional player.
I am a winning recreational player.

Let me answer THAT question before you ask it.
"... because betting for a living is way too much like work for me. Takes all the pleasure out of it. So does losing."

[headhawg]

Does it really matter how many people are winning players? Even if we knew the exact number, how is that helpful? Either a handicapper is making money or s/he isn't. I trust Dave's opinion. For another reality check read Barry Meadow's Skeptical Handicapping. If that doesn't open your eyes then nothing will. At least Dave and Barry give a little hope -- to those willing to do the work.

[MJC922]

I think it needs to be understood just how much money someone needs to be betting to make a 'bad' living at it, let alone a good one. lol The money just wasn't there when I was doing it. I stayed with it for decade but when you live out of your bankroll during the season and worse during the off-season too it can't possibly build up to the point where you're making good money. Again I had 8-12% for nearly a decade going out to the track every day but my prime bets were at most like $800, so when you add up avg two primes per day 800 + 800 + action bets on the other 7 races like $500 you get $2100 per day and there were about 20 racing days per month, $42000, avg profit then at 10% was $4200 per month. And that's living and breathing the game every day like Serling does, I mean you knew those horses and how those races looked going in and out. Like I said I was picking most of my prime bets off the overnight in those days, you knew exactly who was who and what you were looking for. So yea ballpark take home pay $1000 per week, I guess you could say it was good money when my regular jobs back then paid $5 an hour.

If you want to make a consistent even just a middle-class income it's honestly much easier to get a real job. There are probably less then a few dozen people nationally who making better than a min wage income from it year after year. It's incredibly hard to do. All of the self-control that's required everyday and the work that goes into finding edges etc, sure it's better than working at walmart I suppose but it definitely isn't worth it to me anymore. I would only go back to that if I were retired or was on some kind of fixed income. Mostly the only reason I hang around with it now is the potential of automated betting on a large scale with multiple tracks, IF such an edge is found which fits that description there's potentially very large amounts of money to be made. Some few people are doing it so it's definitely possible. We all know what Benter did.

[Johnny V]

Great posts. I tried my hand at being "professional" by that I mean only income from betting horses. I lasted three months. I just couldn't deal with the ups and downs and the pressure. The large bet sizes didn't really get to me in themselves but only up to a certain point and then it was too much. I knew I was done with it when I came home from the track up $1,500 for that particular day and I felt like no elation and actually dreaded going back the next day. I did not go back and that ended my foray into the realm of "professional handicapping".

It was too time consuming and unhealthy for me mentally and physically. It just wasn't worth the effort. So it was back to recreational play for me and enjoying the game and not worrying about my profit for that day/week/whatever. In all my years of betting horses I have personally met only one player who made his entire living at the races. That was in NY back in the 1980's.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Johnny V

Great posts. I tried my hand at being "professional" by that I mean only income from betting horses. I lasted three months. I just couldn't deal with the ups and downs and the pressure. The large bet sizes didn't really get to me in themselves but only up to a certain point and then it was too much. I knew I was done with it when I came home from the track up $1,500 for that particular day and I felt like no elation and actually dreaded going back the next day. I did not go back and that ended my foray into the realm of "professional handicapping".

It was too time consuming and unhealthy for me mentally and physically. It just wasn't worth the effort. So it was back to recreational play for me and enjoying the game and not worrying about my profit for that day/week/whatever. In all my years of betting horses I have personally met only one player who made his entire living at the races. That was in NY back in the 1980's.

The Battle is the Reward.
When something you enjoy becomes all about the money, it ceases to be fun.

Learning this lesson was a great understanding for me.

The Value of Rewards
Mark Lepper, ’66, [Stanford] has long worked on intrinsic versus extrinsic motivation. In a 1973 study, he and colleagues had children play with materials in which they’d already shown an interest (say, marker pens and drawing paper). Two of three groups received rewards for the activity—one group unexpectedly. Then those materials, along with others, were placed in the classroom and the children were observed to see what they chose to play with. The children in the expected-award group showed significantly less interest in that activity than before the study. This research has implications for anyone trying to modify a child’s behavior through a system of rewards.

From the first study on this page

The video below explains this phenomenon and applies it to motivation.

Truly, this video changed my life.

(Ignore the graphic shown below and just watch the video.)

Well Explained in this You Tube video

[thaskalos]

Some of us "winning players" thought they we could make a living exclusively from this game once full-card simulcasting came about. The prevailing theory was that the many tracks around the country suddenly available to us would provide us with many more "prime" betting opportunities than what we had when we were confined just to our home tracks. Of course, this didn't work out as planned for most of us, because (A) we underestimated the effort that it took to become and stay properly informed about all the additional tracks, and (B) the plethora of additional prime bets revealed that we didn't hold the edge over this game that we initially thought we had.

[thaskalos]

As an aside...the most successful horseplayer that I have ever known doesn't know who Andy Beyer is. Honest!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Some of us "winning players" thought they we could make a living exclusively from this game once full-card simulcasting came about. The prevailing theory was that the many tracks around the country suddenly available to us would provide us with many more "prime" betting opportunities than what we had when we were confined just to our home tracks. Of course, this didn't work out as planned for most of us, because (A) we underestimated the effort that it took to become and stay properly informed about all the additional tracks, and (B) the plethora of additional prime bets revealed that we didn't hold the edge over this game that we initially thought we had.

in the very beginning of simulcasting it was ok, but you are 100% right. i need more than a racing form and speed figures to bet this game.

[Johnny V]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The Battle is the Reward.
When something you enjoy becomes all about the money, it ceases to be fun.

Learning this lesson was a great understanding for me.



From the first study on this page

The video below explains this phenomenon and applies it to motivation.

Truly, this video changed my life.

(Ignore the graphic shown below and just watch the video.)
Well Explained in this You Tube video

Dave, thanks for posting that video. I encourage everyone to watch it. It is only 9:43 long but it took me a lot longer than that to watch/listen to what was being said. I found myself replaying certain parts over because it really hit home and I wanted to fully digest the scope and ramifications of what was being said and how it applied and still applies to me.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Johnny V

Dave, thanks for posting that video. I encourage everyone to watch it. It is only 9:43 long but it took me a lot longer than that to watch/listen to what was being said. I found myself replaying certain parts over because it really hit home and I wanted to fully digest the scope and ramifications of what was being said and how it applied and still applies to me.

Worth a listen. Gambling might be a special case, I think the things that constitute 'work' for the professional horseplayer, whether it's the figure-making or the race-watching or whatever record keeping, the coding, you name it, I've honestly enjoyed an awful lot of that stuff over the years where many others might not have, so I can relate to the video as far as that goes. Where the real rubber meets the road for the professional horseplayer though is outside of that 'work' piece of it IMO, it's managing the bankroll and the unusual level of restraint that you must bring to bear each and every day, there's literally no end to that. It doesn't just one year suddenly go away, you've made it, that would be the greatest reward if it did, beyond any money. Even when you're winning every year there's no end to the constant losing days, losing hundreds, losing thousands, it can wear on a person. You lose and then you need to go home oblivious to it because it's part of the process, walk in the next day still oblivious, very robotic execution, bet your percentages, log your profit loss on the race, turn the page, on to the next. If you could figure out some jedi mind-trick for that part of it that will allow me to not cringe about the thought of ever doing it seriously again then you're really doing something. If the computer can do it for me then I'm interested.