Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

In what sense? I rely heavily on %Median. Maybe not in the same way as others see it.

Like you, BJ, I have never gotten it to work for me.

But his stuff is different.
Completely different application.

I've seen some of Ranch's work.
His concepts are very solid.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

Would you like to take a race and explain?

Race 1 Parx, 10/24/22 (today)

A field of early energy horses (fairly high %M) going 5.5f, a dash. Should be a normal pace race. All of the horses have a similar early energy.

#4 shows to be the early pace horse, gets the lead. #1 shows to have early foot and class, breaks a little off, moves up and runs down the 4.

Nothing special about this race, but that's what the %M told me... nothing special to be concerned about, handicap it normally.

[ranchwest]

It's when there's a field of low %M horses that I get more creative in my handicapping.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Race 1 Parx, 10/24/22 (today)

A field of early energy horses (fairly high %M) going 5.5f, a dash. Should be a normal pace race. All of the horses have a similar early energy.

#4 shows to be the early pace horse, gets the lead. #1 shows to have early foot and class, breaks a little off, moves up and runs down the 4.

Nothing special about this race, but that's what the %M told me... nothing special to be concerned about, handicap it normally.

thxs


Your first sentence says "fairly high %M at 5.5"

How do you know that?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

thxs


Your first sentence says "fairly high %M at 5.5"

How do you know that?

That may not have been as clear as it should have been. I didn't mean their history at 5.5. I meant that they were going 5.5 today.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

That may not have been as clear as it should have been. I didn't mean their history at 5.5. I meant that they were going 5.5 today.

it sounds like your going off the top of your head with no real rules...

correct?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

it sounds like your going off the top of your head with no real rules...

correct?

Incorrect. I take the %M of all prior races and take the median of those. I divide those into 6 levels of early to late. I then take the median value for those 6 levels. If it leans late (on dirt) for the field, I get creative.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Incorrect. I take the %M of all prior races and take the median of those. I divide those into 6 levels of early to late. I then take the median value for those 6 levels. If it leans late (on dirt) for the field, I get creative.

thx....got it

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I think you're talking about handicapping today's race and I'm talking about assessing the impact of energy distribution in a previous race. In theory if I'm carrying forward more accurate data from previously rated races as inputs to today's handicapping process then I'm setting myself up for success against those who aren't.

That's what I'm interested in also. I'm trying to measure the past more accurately.

The complexity for me is that each horse is different in terms of how it reacts to various pace and flow conditions even when the running styles are the same. IMO, all the formulas and handicapping dictums are wrong some of the time other than if we are talking about the "average" horse.

So the trick to getting value is not being on the same page as everyone else. It's understanding where all the commonly held views are wrong for some individual horse.