Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

[wiretowire68]

The #1 horse today at parx New Commission in my method of energy distribution when I did my full handicapping I believe in the 9th race was top rated in terms of least amount used going into todays race. He was 30-1 went off at 35-1 payed more than the winner. It is rare but they can be used in exotics...I throw them on the back end sometimes...

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

The #1 horse today at parx New Commission in my method of energy distribution when I did my full handicapping I believe in the 9th race was top rated in terms of least amount used going into todays race. He was 30-1 went off at 35-1 payed more than the winner. It is rare but they can be used in exotics...I throw them on the back end sometimes...

Can you explain how you quantify "top rated in terms of least amount used going into todays race"?

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, somebody took a long time to make sure this poll was JUICED to the gills...

Bunch of psychos on this board...

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Wow, somebody took a long time to make sure this poll was JUICED to the gills...

Bunch of psychos on this board...

Yes, and every time they vote it comes up in New Posts. Way more often than actual new posts.

And, I didn't originally understand the question. So, my vote isn't recorded properly anyway.

[wiretowire68]

Well, I calculate it similarily to Mike Pizzola only my percentages are lower particularly in route races. I use my pace analysis and in terms you really have to judge it on a race to race basis. I think when you read past performances, one of my angles has been to keep an eye on what horses go off at in their last race connections or not. I have seen it many times where it does not matter what the classification of the race is, a long short or a good overlay will and the public gets stupid and figures that the horse is going to come right back and win as the fav. More times than not it does not happen. So it is a % thing. As well, when you look at a race particularly a stakes race yesterday at Parx. The two choices #7 Far Mo Power had just upset in his stakes race at 13-1 although disqualified and the # 9 Riden with Biden was coming off an 8-1 Upset in the Greenwood Derby on Philly Derby Day and went wire to wire at 1 1/2. So to me the race had speed and they had bad posts. An owner, a trainer of the #1 were stepping up and high odds and looking to get a pay day with a cheaper horse. It is smart business, the pace line I chose in his mile route his last race showed that he was getting him ready for this type of race. It is just not a number but also a logical deduction. The horse was ranked in my analysis best of the worse only because of energy dist. and the fact the other two in my top three were the # 7 and the # 9

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

Well, I calculate it similarily to Mike Pizzola only my percentages are lower particularly in route races. I use my pace analysis and in terms you really have to judge it on a race to race basis. I think when you read past performances, one of my angles has been to keep an eye on what horses go off at in their last race connections or not. I have seen it many times where it does not matter what the classification of the race is, a long short or a good overlay will and the public gets stupid and figures that the horse is going to come right back and win as the fav. More times than not it does not happen. So it is a % thing. As well, when you look at a race particularly a stakes race yesterday at Parx. The two choices #7 Far Mo Power had just upset in his stakes race at 13-1 although disqualified and the # 9 Riden with Biden was coming off an 8-1 Upset in the Greenwood Derby on Philly Derby Day and went wire to wire at 1 1/2. So to me the race had speed and they had bad posts. An owner, a trainer of the #1 were stepping up and high odds and looking to get a pay day with a cheaper horse. It is smart business, the pace line I chose in his mile route his last race showed that he was getting him ready for this type of race. It is just not a number but also a logical deduction. The horse was ranked in my analysis best of the worse only because of energy dist. and the fact the other two in my top three were the # 7 and the # 9

Thanks! I am not sure that I yet fully understand, but it is genuine food for thought. I did feel that this was a race where the front pace was likely to collapse, but I will have to review your points to better understand your approach.

[wiretowire68]

Well energy distribution can be calculated by taking an Early pace # with your 2nd call or in Feet per second...based on a pace line..pace line is so important..Pace handicappers and Sartin try to pick the proper race, it is a skill that without software because you know that horses cutback or stretchout. Otherwise, you have figure out whether the horse is worth doing the work for. #1 New Commission in terms of form did not show much in terms of what he was stepping up into but I take the least amount of energy and grade it into my final algorithm. People argue these points vehemently, every race is an energy distribution, and I find it usually a horse that is long odds because he finish way out of it last race or he stepping up in class and trainer owner are hoping to get a piece of the purse. Energy distribution to me is strictly either horse that goes off as fav. or bet down because on paper his numbers look like he did not use up energy and I find it is the exact opposite. It is like any other figure, I treat sprints totally differently than routes obviously because sprints and energy are used up quicker because horses need to be closer in position..running style prediction is also very important and I also believe energy has to be judged on the pilot..... its up to him to either know or dont know what kind of horse he has going into a race..They hold the reins.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Wow, somebody took a long time to make sure this poll was JUICED to the gills...

Bunch of psychos on this board...

Unbelievable that a vote could be tampered with!

[BroadwayJoe]

This thread and those results still has me....

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

Well energy distribution can be calculated by taking an Early pace # with your 2nd call or in Feet per second...based on a pace line..pace line is so important..Pace handicappers and Sartin try to pick the proper race, it is a skill that without software because you know that horses cutback or stretchout. Otherwise, you have figure out whether the horse is worth doing the work for. #1 New Commission in terms of form did not show much in terms of what he was stepping up into but I take the least amount of energy and grade it into my final algorithm. People argue these points vehemently, every race is an energy distribution, and I find it usually a horse that is long odds because he finish way out of it last race or he stepping up in class and trainer owner are hoping to get a piece of the purse. Energy distribution to me is strictly either horse that goes off as fav. or bet down because on paper his numbers look like he did not use up energy and I find it is the exact opposite. It is like any other figure, I treat sprints totally differently than routes obviously because sprints and energy are used up quicker because horses need to be closer in position..running style prediction is also very important and I also believe energy has to be judged on the pilot..... its up to him to either know or dont know what kind of horse he has going into a race..They hold the reins.

Thanks for the explanation. I believe I better understand your points. I, too, depend a lot on energy distribution.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Wow, somebody took a long time to make sure this poll was JUICED to the gills...

Bunch of psychos on this board...

Seems like an inefficient distribution of energy ...

[BroadwayJoe]

Why was this poll closed?

Is it because how ridiculous the results were?

There's a poll on here since 2012 on which handicapping method you use that got less than 800 votes....a very reasonable question like this but this got over 2000....

Hmmmmm......

[classhandicapper]

One one the problems I have with thinking along these lines is that every horse is different. I like Baffert’s use of the term “cruising speed”. What he’s talking about is how fast the horse can run early or in the middle and still be comfortable so he’s not burning off extreme energy. Unless you know that breaking point for each horse, you really don’t know the impact the early fractions had on the front front runners or the middle fractions had on the mid pack and closers as they tried to get into position.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

One one the problems I have with thinking along these lines is that every horse is different. I like Baffert’s use of the term “cruising speed”. What he’s talking about is how fast the horse can run early or in the middle and still be comfortable so he’s not burning off extreme energy. Unless you know that breaking point for each horse, you really don’t know the impact the early fractions had on the front front runners or the middle fractions had on the mid pack and closers as they tried to get into position.

Not every horse is different...Every race is different

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

Not every horse is different...Every race is different

Every horse IS different. They are always at different points in their form cycle. Some could be at their peak total energy and some could be much lower. Their running styles may be fairly consistent but in the big picture that doesn't mean much. Energy distribution is an interesting concept but I don't know that it gives you much more information than other things. Again -- it goes back to the totality of energy a horse has today. The trainer might know. The horse knows, but he/she's not talking. The handicapper is just guessing although I suspect that a very good physicality 'capper has an edge here.