OOPS at Belmont

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

any time they can't field an adequate field size of at least eight runners, there should be 2% per horse deduction in takeout.

this goes for unusual/heavy scratches

or when fields of 6 or 7 are presented as complete races.

I agree with the spirit of your view, but it could result in pressure to keep a horse running when it should be scratched.

I'm not sure how they approach scratches in Hong Kong - but it seems to work. Lots of cards with no or just a single scratch. And it's very unusual to see a post-time scratch. They appear to have track vets and gate personnel that are really on the ball.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

NYRA has never been known to be run by the brightest bulbs. Sources say that entries will be very light at Saratoga....what a joke. That ought to make it easy for handicappers to pick 4 horses in 5 horse fields. 🙄🙄🙄🙄

I would be very surprised if Saratoga, which has weathered all the storms affecting other tracks, has field size problems. And for all my criticisms of NYRA, they run Saratoga extremely well.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

any time they can't field an adequate field size of at least eight runners, there should be 2% per horse deduction in takeout.

this goes for unusual/heavy scratches

or when fields of 6 or 7 are presented as complete races.

I've said for a long time that I think takeout should scale based on field size and other demand factors. Horse racing is totally blowing it by having the same takeout on the Kentucky Derby- a 20 horse race that will generate enormous betting handle even with high takeout- and a Friday afternoon 6 horse maiden race, where lowering the takeout could get more people to bet it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I've said for a long time that I think takeout should scale based on field size and other demand factors. Horse racing is totally blowing it by having the same takeout on the Kentucky Derby- a 20 horse race that will generate enormous betting handle even with high takeout- and a Friday afternoon 6 horse maiden race, where lowering the takeout could get more people to bet it.

Fair to bettors.

legitimizes fields too small (4,5,6) because of a division/crop issue, or an owner-showcase issue.

more competitive to sports betting options


emphasizes my meaningless personal grumpy hangup with fields of 7 or 6 presented as 'full fields'



lots of positives

[cj]

I will say this is the first time I've seen a match race where the public completely botched the betting. I think it might be the first one I've ever bet to be honest. Maybe the turf part of it threw them off, thinking speed was important.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

I will say this is the first time I've seen a match race where the public completely botched the betting. I think it might be the first one I've ever bet to be honest. Maybe the turf part of it threw them off, thinking speed was important.

I got shut out, trying to make a token $5 bet on 4/5 long shot Baby Blythe in that match race.

However, even with speed/pace/tactics less important - I was surprised to see Prat not send and establish.

I could be biased, and I could be wrong about the handicapping of their pace, and I could be wrong watching it live about how much Prat had in reserve.


IF he did have unused tactical speed, then I do feel strongly that turf or not, early pace has to be used to advantage.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I got shut out, trying to make a token $5 bet on 4/5 long shot Baby Blythe in that match race.

However, even with speed/pace/tactics less important - I was surprised to see Prat not send and establish.

I could be biased, and I could be wrong about the handicapping of their pace, and I could be wrong watching it live about how much Prat had in reserve.


IF he did have unused tactical speed, then I do feel strongly that turf or not, early pace has to be used to advantage.

I thought the same watching, but they actually went really fast for the course and distance early, the pace figures will be big. They were slowing big time late.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

I thought the same watching, but they actually went really fast for the course and distance early, the pace figures will be big. They were slowing big time late.

Thanks CJ.

One of the reasons I use your TimeformUS. I consider it a legit model, and will re-watch and consider different perspectives.


Reinvestmentstrategy( name? ) I think only had 3 races and wasn't exactly a rabbit, and Baby Blythe had at least one race to memory were she was rank, in spite of generally being a plodder. It's not like it's impossible that they could have been bunched early.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I would be very surprised if Saratoga, which has weathered all the storms affecting other tracks, has field size problems. And for all my criticisms of NYRA, they run Saratoga extremely well.

It’s actually been the storms who have weathered Saratoga year after year. It’s like why even bother to run turf races when they seem to come off the turf at least 2 cards a week? Even without the off turf field size has been dismal the last several years at Toga. Expect many 5-6 horse fields this summer. Bookmark my post you will see. Oddly some people like to bet the small fields though.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

It’s actually been the storms who have weathered Saratoga year after year. It’s like why even bother to run turf races when they seem to come off the turf at least 2 cards a week? Even without the off turf field size has been dismal the last several years at Toga. Expect many 5-6 horse fields this summer. Bookmark my post you will see. Oddly some people like to bet the small fields though.

The weather is always a wildcard in upstate New York. But you know, one of the reasons I praise NYRA so much for how they run Saratoga is precisely that I have never seen the point despite a number of trips there. The facility is cramped and old and in the middle of nowhere, there are serious issues with comfort and obstructed views, and it's probably a fire trap. And yes, as you point out, the weather is a huge variable.

And yet NYRA has turned this into THE place for summer racing in America. Even though objectively, my beloved Del Mar is a much better place to see a horse race, the racing product at Del Mar rates about a 5 (and when it was at it's best was about a 7) where as Saratoga's product would rate at least a 9 on a scale of 10.

I expect that Saratoga will have great racing this summer, just like it always does. I am envious.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The weather is always a wildcard in upstate New York. But you know, one of the reasons I praise NYRA so much for how they run Saratoga is precisely that I have never seen the point despite a number of trips there. The facility is cramped and old and in the middle of nowhere, there are serious issues with comfort and obstructed views, and it's probably a fire trap. And yes, as you point out, the weather is a huge variable.

And yet NYRA has turned this into THE place for summer racing in America. Even though objectively, my beloved Del Mar is a much better place to see a horse race, the racing product at Del Mar rates about a 5 (and when it was at it's best was about a 7) where as Saratoga's product would rate at least a 9 on a scale of 10.

I expect that Saratoga will have great racing this summer, just like it always does. I am envious.

Don’t get me wrong. Saratoga is by far my second favorite track to spend time at regardless of the racing product. The atmosphere in and around the track is what keeps me visiting each year. Saratoga just naturally sells itself. I just don’t like how they make very little effort to keep field size at a premium. They cut back to 5 racing days a week selling a fake bill of goods that field size would get and stay bigger. That did not happen. NYRA is full of shenanigans and characters but that will never depreciate the value of the track and city of Saratoga Springs.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

It’s actually been the storms who have weathered Saratoga year after year. It’s like why even bother to run turf races when they seem to come off the turf at least 2 cards a week? Even without the off turf field size has been dismal the last several years at Toga. Expect many 5-6 horse fields this summer. Bookmark my post you will see. Oddly some people like to bet the small fields though.

This has to be an act. Nobody is this wrong this often. Nobody.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by the little guy

This has to be an act. Nobody is this wrong this often. Nobody.

The irony is so thick you need a chainsaw.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

The irony is so thick you need a chainsaw.

Oh no...somebody with a bone to pick with TLG...how shockingly original.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Oh no...somebody with a bone to pick with TLG...how shockingly original.

Good grief, it was a joke.

My apologies to Andy if he was offended. Not a good way to post sarcasm here.