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06-22-2020, 04:32 PM
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#166
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usfgeology
Interesting observations. Readers Digest for me is I’m trying to transition between an action player (like Coach describes) to a more strategic and patient spot player (like Mike describes).
Trying being the operative word...
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I'm not that patient.....but ....you can have 2 bank-rolls.....
One for the prime bets ...the other for action....
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06-22-2020, 08:11 PM
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#167
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I'm not that patient.....but ....you can have 2 bank-rolls.....
One for the prime bets ...the other for action....
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Agreed.....but even still, it doesn't mean this horse was his top selection. He posted here because it met the angle of discussion but maybe he had a value line on him as his 3rd choice and the horse did not meet his value. If the 6 didn't win, we would be saying "Great Call" for laying off it but yet if he finishes 2nd at 8/1 we would say, "Great call" taking a chance with him.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
Last edited by coachv30; 06-22-2020 at 08:13 PM.
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06-23-2020, 08:17 AM
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#168
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Good thread, Coach.
Just wanted to point out, if your subscribe to DRF PLUS, it has something called Hot Stat which shows up on some of the horses and gives angles, one of which shows when a horse comes out of a key race and it gives you each horse that ran and won and the date of the race it won.
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06-23-2020, 08:36 AM
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#169
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
One of which shows when a horse comes out of a key race and it gives you each horse that ran and won and the date of the race it won.
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The original post said that the key race for the system was two races back, I believe.
"Interesting long shot angle that I've been following
I will post some examples of winners tomorrow but until then......here's the angle.
1) Horse is coming out of a Key race (or what can be assumed as a key race with at least two finishers in italics) two races back."
Last edited by jk3521; 06-23-2020 at 08:42 AM.
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06-23-2020, 10:49 AM
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#170
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Tampa Bay
Posts: 1,100
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Exactly. Key races two back is what supports the longshot angle. Which was another reason I backed off my previous pick (it was no longer a longshot).
For my purposes, I’ve modified and only look for one italicized horse, not two or more. Those are too obvious to get the odds I’m looking for....
And to wrap up Conversation about selection vs my play. I backed off the Tiz horse to win due to the odds, but I boxed it with the most likely winner (the 2) so I ultimately was able to extract odds of around 7-1.
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06-23-2020, 12:46 PM
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#171
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Good thread, Coach.
Just wanted to point out, if your subscribe to DRF PLUS, it has something called Hot Stat which shows up on some of the horses and gives angles, one of which shows when a horse comes out of a key race and it gives you each horse that ran and won and the date of the race it won.
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Thanks Pandy...I will look into that.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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06-23-2020, 12:51 PM
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#172
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by usfgeology
Exactly. Key races two back is what supports the longshot angle. Which was another reason I backed off my previous pick (it was no longer a longshot).
For my purposes, I’ve modified and only look for one italicized horse, not two or more. Those are too obvious to get the odds I’m looking for....
And to wrap up Conversation about selection vs my play. I backed off the Tiz horse to win due to the odds, but I boxed it with the most likely winner (the 2) so I ultimately was able to extract odds of around 7-1.
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Yes....the two or even three races back kind of disguises the angle a bit. If I see a key race three back so to speak, I will look for an excuse in the last two whether through trip notes, level of company, surface, distance, post position or even watch a replay for a bad step if he did not run well. Sort of like a "Delayed Key Race Effect".
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
Last edited by coachv30; 06-23-2020 at 12:52 PM.
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06-23-2020, 01:05 PM
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#173
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Here's an interesting one today in Parx 4th. See my comments at the bottom of the PP.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
Last edited by coachv30; 06-23-2020 at 01:09 PM.
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06-23-2020, 01:24 PM
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#174
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Here's an interesting one today in Parx 4th. See my comments at the bottom of the PP.
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In the maiden win by 4 lengths, I like to a moderate to big speed improvement if she's going up in class. Kind of like the race previous to the maiden win. Without seeing the field, I'm not sure how this is an 8-1 ML longshot today.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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06-23-2020, 01:38 PM
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#175
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Here's an interesting one today in Parx 4th. See my comments at the bottom of the PP.
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Good choice...8-1?......nah.....
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06-23-2020, 01:43 PM
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#176
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Good choice...8-1?......nah.....
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Yeah...i can't see it either.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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06-23-2020, 01:45 PM
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#177
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Good choice...8-1?......nah.....
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But at 19/1 in the double, worth a small shot.
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06-23-2020, 02:24 PM
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#178
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
But at 19/1 in the double, worth a small shot.
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or the $20 exacta with the favorite.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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06-23-2020, 02:27 PM
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#179
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Made $11.60 on the race...
I went $5 WIN 
$1 EX KEY BOX- 3/1,8
 Exacta returned $20.60
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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06-23-2020, 02:31 PM
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#180
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
Made $11.60 on the race...
I went $5 WIN
$1 EX KEY BOX- 3/1,8
Exacta returned $20.60 |
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