The Mountain Mad Bomber strikes!

[cj]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I cannot control what other people do. If someone pulls out 1/2 the pool last second or crushes my horse last second nothing I can do about it. I guess nobody cares about odds because this can happen at any track.

Actually, it can't happen at any track.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by cj

You know, so you want 4 to 1 on a horse, he is 6 to 1 heading to the gate, so you don't cancel, correct? Then after the break he is suddenly 5-2. That is what happens at MNR.

I play as many thoroughbred tracks as I can. I may get 2 or 3 bets a year at MNR. I know what happens at MNR been watching it for years. I've made 1 bet at MNR where there was a large early win bet. I ended up getting a much higher price than I thought I would.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I cannot control what other people do. If someone pulls out 1/2 the pool last second or crushes my horse last second nothing I can do about it. I guess nobody cares about odds because this can happen at any track.

What we're talking about only seems to be happening these days at The Mountain.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

What we're talking about only seems to be happening these days at The Mountain.

I agree with that. I remember a couple of years ago looking at a program for MTR. I saw 6 of the 9 races where I thought he might make that large early wager. He did indeed make that early wager in all 6 races. I've seen a couple of times where it appears he may have placed big exacta wagers. I wonder if he does place sizable excotic wagers or sticks mainly to win betting?

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by cj

Actually, it can't happen at any track.

Which tracks can't it happen at?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Which tracks can't it happen at?

Those that don't allow large cancellations.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by banacek

No. The horses I bet weren't scratched. the horse I was betting against was scratched.

So..Why should anyone think they get a guarantee of the 'best bet" they can possibly make on every race. We're dealing with live creatures here. There are lots of variables.
Everyone wants the best chance of a positive return on their wager. However, this is still a game of chance. With all the research one does with programs that ferret out factors such as value, negative races, positive races, etc, the one constant is the fact that one might just LOSE their wager.
If you want a guaranteed or near certain guarantee of positive income, either put your money on an income fund or buy some condos and charge enough rent to make sure you have positive cash flow.
If you decide that betting on horse racing is a way to either make a living or augment your income, then there are certain chances you take.
Handicapping and other tools mitigate the chance at a loss. But they do not guarantee a profit.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by cj

I hope everyone can see the irony of that post.

Yes...

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

I cannot control what other people do. If someone pulls out 1/2 the pool last second or crushes my horse last second nothing I can do about it. I guess nobody cares about odds because this can happen at any track.

You don't make any sense.
In one respect, you say price the most important factor. You would cancel a wager based on price alone...Yet you say you'd cancel based on 'body language' of the horse on which your bet already lay.
Suppose the body language was nothing and you pulled your bet only to have the Bay 3Yo named "Bad Body Language" win by 5 at 6-1? Then what?
Look, the normal way this is done, is you go to the paddock or saddling area. then watch the post parade. If you see stuff you don't like, leave the race alone. Why bet early then go look at these things and decide later to pull your bet? Remember, you are wagering into a shared pool. What you do affects everyone else. If your wagers are a large enough portion of the pools, by cancelling a bet, you in effect manipulate the pool. Not saying it's with malice intent. Still however, this has a negative affect on the other bettors.
Anyway, we agree to disagree.
I think though, the days of the ability to cancel bets with impunity are going to end. As long as the public believes there is an integrity issue with the pools, they will stay away.

[Tom]

My opinion - no cancellations period.
No exceptions.

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Tom

My opinion - no cancellations period.
No exceptions.

That's correct...once u leave the window ur done!!!! Just like the old days...if Mnr cared this could be done for tonight's card

[Longshot6977]

I wonder what would happen if it was found to be a whale like Dana Parham who bets about $330M/year. The track could bend their rules for him to allow his huge bets to increase their handle, even if he did cancel some. The track may just want more handle at the expense of losing some smaller bettors. Ya never know what these racetrack executives may do.

And I wonder what Jeff Gural would do at the Big M if he found out someone was doing it there(maybe it is being done there too?), like a Dana Parham.

[Tom]

I suspect they care, but about who?

[wiffleball whizz]

[QUOTE=Longshot6977]I wonder what would happen if it was found to be a whale like Dana Parham who bets about $330M/year. The track could bend their rules for him to allow his huge bets to increase their handle, even if he did cancel some. The track may just want more handle at the expense of losing some smaller bettors. Ya never know what these racetrack executives may do.

And I wonder what Jeff Gural would do at the Big M if he found out someone was doing it there(maybe it is being done there too?), like a Dana Parham.[/

QUOTE]

Hmmmmmm Dana parham why does that name ring a bell so early in the morning?!!?

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by thespaah

You don't make any sense.
In one respect, you say price the most important factor. You would cancel a wager based on price alone...Yet you say you'd cancel based on 'body language' of the horse on which your bet already lay.
Suppose the body language was nothing and you pulled your bet only to have the Bay 3Yo named "Bad Body Language" win by 5 at 6-1? Then what?
Look, the normal way this is done, is you go to the paddock or saddling area. then watch the post parade. If you see stuff you don't like, leave the race alone. Why bet early then go look at these things and decide later to pull your bet? Remember, you are wagering into a shared pool. What you do affects everyone else. If your wagers are a large enough portion of the pools, by cancelling a bet, you in effect manipulate the pool. Not saying it's with malice intent. Still however, this has a negative affect on the other bettors.
Anyway, we agree to disagree.
I think though, the days of the ability to cancel bets with impunity are going to end. As long as the public believes there is an integrity issue with the pools, they will stay away.

Could have explained it better. I've never had a horse with what I considered bad body language win a race. I will explain why I bet early as best I can. Let me say that all my wagering is via simulcast unless I catch a bet during the live meet at Ellis. I'm looking for a specific angle and check as many tracks as I can to find it. I bet early so I can concentrate on my horse in the paddock and on the track. Most tracks do a suffeciant job at showing the horses in the paddock. The tracks do a good job at the initial post parade but after that it's hit or miss. Some tracks do a real good job showing horses warming up and others do a piss poor job. I'm only betting a handful of races each month and I am trying to reduce the chances I get stuck on a bet.