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Old 02-28-2013, 05:25 PM   #1
cj
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Trainer Racing

Is it just me, or does it seem like half the favorites these days are determined by nothing but a trainer change? I'm not saying that is a bad thing for bettors. It just seems people have been burned so many times they overdo it now.
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Old 02-28-2013, 05:30 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by cj
Is it just me, or does it seem like half the favorites these days are determined by nothing but a trainer change? I'm not saying that is a bad thing for bettors. It just seems people have been burned so many times they overdo it now.
What was once a profitable angle is now completely overbet. Horses transferred even to mediocre barns get bet in CASE they improve. And mediocre horses switched to strong barns get bet like they can't lose-even in deep, competitive fields.
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Old 02-28-2013, 05:38 PM   #3
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Instead of listing the horse in the program and the trainer in small print in the upper corner, they ought to list the trainer with the horse in the upper corner in small print.
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Old 02-28-2013, 05:39 PM   #4
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You said it just right. It's the way the game is now Trainer Racing. Yes, that's it. Played the game for 30 years. The guys that were 20% now are 3o%. The 10's are now closer to 20% . If anyone wants examples, I can give a ton.
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Old 02-28-2013, 05:43 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
Instead of listing the horse in the program and the trainer in small print in the upper corner, they ought to list the trainer with the horse in the upper corner in small print.
OK, that is pretty funny! Instead of running lines for the horses, we could just get his meet stats like trainers, and running lines for every trainer entrant!
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Old 02-28-2013, 05:55 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by cj
OK, that is pretty funny! Instead of running lines for the horses, we could just get his meet stats like trainers, and running lines for every trainer entrant!


I could just hear Trevor now....here's the field for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap....Number one is Bob Baffert...he's a 60 year old human, bred in Arizona....
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Old 02-28-2013, 06:13 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
What was once a profitable angle is now completely overbet. Horses transferred even to mediocre barns get bet in CASE they improve. And mediocre horses switched to strong barns get bet like they can't lose-even in deep, competitive fields.
Then you should be able to bet against them and make a nice profit in the long run. Good luck.
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Old 02-28-2013, 06:18 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I could just hear Trevor now....here's the field for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap....Number one is Bob Baffert...he's a 60 year old human, bred in Arizona....
The problem would be that the rest of the call would go like this...

Number 3 is also Bob Baffert
Number 4 is also Bob Baffert
Number 6 is also Bob Baffert
etc.
etc.
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Old 02-28-2013, 06:28 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Then you should be able to bet against them and make a nice profit in the long run. Good luck.
You can, but you have to pick your spots.
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Old 02-28-2013, 06:37 PM   #10
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So, what do you guys think of Little Distorted on Saturday in the Swale? He moves to the Martin Wolfson barn....
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Old 02-28-2013, 06:43 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Charli125
The problem would be that the rest of the call would go like this...

Number 3 is also Bob Baffert
Number 4 is also Bob Baffert
Number 6 is also Bob Baffert
etc.
etc.
Post of the year. When you handicap So Cal races, you got that Baffert guy who always seems to have 2 or 3 in the race, esp these 3yo races.
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Old 02-28-2013, 07:07 PM   #12
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OK, that is pretty funny! Instead of running lines for the horses, we could just get his meet stats like trainers, and running lines for every trainer entrant!
Funny you mention this, because it is the basis for the software that will eventually replace HSH.
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Old 02-28-2013, 07:45 PM   #13
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[QUOTE=Dave Schwartz]Funny you mention this, because it is the basis for the software that will eventually replace HSH.[/QUOTE
Now there is intresting concept
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Old 02-28-2013, 09:33 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Then you should be able to bet against them and make a nice profit in the long run. Good luck.
It's still hard for me to bet counter to what's been a pet angle of mine for a long time. Back before the form flagged transferred horses, it was pure gold at the windows. I even suggested to previous management that we put such info in our pp-program. Unfortunately, I was turned down and lost my shot to trump drf by 2 or 3 years.
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Old 03-01-2013, 07:03 AM   #15
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personally i don't follow trends. i believe in the efficient market hypothesis.
when information becomes widely available for public consumption, it is incorporated in the "price" of the horse given to the bettor for wagering on it.
horseracing is a rapidly changing game, and one has to stay a step ahead of one's contemporaries if one is to remain even remotely close to beating the take-out.
also from my betting records i see that every penny counts. for the amount i bet if i bet at the track instead of with a rebate house i would make around 5000 dollars less just this past year. something is going to change in this area, but that is a topic for another thread.
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