Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Every horse IS different. They are always at different points in their form cycle. Some could be at their peak total energy and some could be much lower. Their running styles may be fairly consistent but in the big picture that doesn't mean much. Energy distribution is an interesting concept but I don't know that it gives you much more information than other things. Again -- it goes back to the totality of energy a horse has today. The trainer might know. The horse knows, but he/she's not talking. The handicapper is just guessing although I suspect that a very good physicality 'capper has an edge here.

Well said.

[Dave Schwartz]

WOW!
I had not looked at this poll in a long time, except to read the occasional new comments.

The last time I looked, it was like 55/45.

[edit]
PA, could this be bots voting?
Hard to imagine that anything gets this many votes on any topic.

Every horse IS different. They are always at different points in their form cycle. Some could be at their peak total energy and some could be much lower. Their running styles may be fairly consistent but in the big picture that doesn't mean much. Energy distribution is an interesting concept but I don't know that it gives you much more information than other things. Again -- it goes back to the totality of energy a horse has today. The trainer might know. The horse knows, but he/she's not talking. The handicapper is just guessing although I suspect that a very good physicality 'capper has an edge here.

Absolutely.

Maybe a good next question.
LOL

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Every horse IS different. They are always at different points in their form cycle. Some could be at their peak total energy and some could be much lower. Their running styles may be fairly consistent but in the big picture that doesn't mean much. Energy distribution is an interesting concept but I don't know that it gives you much more information than other things. Again -- it goes back to the totality of energy a horse has today. The trainer might know. The horse knows, but he/she's not talking. The handicapper is just guessing although I suspect that a very good physicality 'capper has an edge here.

I'll settle for "Horse and Race" is different...

SAy you have a 10,000 claimer in top condition and hes Early...

He moves up to 20,000 claimer with 2 Earlies....

No matter whats his form....Guess what ...he'll lose 9 of 10 times....

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

I'll settle for "Horse and Race" is different...

SAy you have a 10,000 claimer in top condition and hes Early...

He moves up to 20,000 claimer with 2 Earlies....

No matter whats his form....Guess what ...he'll lose 9 of 10 times....

You tend to look at things in isolation which is wrong, but settle for what you want. Moving up in class is a different topic from energy distribution (and by inference, PTE -- Probable Total Energy). And if the 20k earlies are @62% of their total energy because they've raced four times in nine weeks, and the 10k is at 95% third off a layoff AND the trainer has a wpct of 18% moving up in class and 16% 3rd off layoff? Oh...the 10k horse is 7-1 and the 20Ks are < 5-2. Now what?

The horses still make up the composition of a race. Do I think race analysis is important? Of course and probably needs to be done more. And if you can find other situations where horses can lose 90% of the time then you have found handicapping gold. However, it seems like you want to examine all the individual parts without putting them together in a meaningful way.

[classhandicapper]

I’m talking about something more subtle.

Let’s say we have 3 horses. They all ran 22 - 45 - 110 last time out and that’s typical of their recent performances.

Numerically they all ran the same race and there has been no form change since the last race.

They face each other, except this time the fractions are 21 4/5 - 44 3/5.

How do they react?

My argument is that one might collapse, one might run the same 110 final time, and one might actually finish in 109 4/5.

If they ran 44 flat, they’d all probably collapse, but to much different degrees.

Initially, their fractions and final times were the same, but the horses are not. They have different levels of ability to run faster early without burning up a lot of excess energy and different amounts of reserve energy if asked for more. It’s tough to know those things before a horse is asked.

IMO, this is sort of what “class” is. It’s not just the ability to run fast. It’s the ability to run fast even if the demands of the race are really tough.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’m talking about something more subtle.

Let’s say we have 3 horses. They all ran 22 - 45 - 110 last time out and that’s typical of their recent performances.

Numerically they all ran the same race and there has been no form change since the last race.

They face each other, except this time the fractions are 21 4/5 - 44 3/5.

How do they react?

My argument is that one might collapse, one might run the same 110 final time, and one might actually finish in 109 4/5.

If they ran 44 flat, they’d all probably collapse, but to much different degrees.

Initially, their fractions and final times were the same, but the horses are not. They have different levels of ability to run faster early without burning up a lot of excess energy and different amounts of reserve energy if asked for more. It’s tough to know those things before a horse is asked.

IMO, this is sort of what “class” is. It’s not just the ability to run fast. It’s the ability to run fast even if the demands of the race are really tough.

This is what handicapping is all about....

You just can't isolate a horse that he is in top condition and can beat everyone..

That is why I said "Horse and Race" is different

Mike

[Dave Schwartz]

Headhawg
You tend to look at things in isolation which is wrong,

This is the most important thing you've said.

This, above all else, is the difference between players that have a real shot at winning long term and everyone else.

Please explain more of this.

[Tom]

The form is full of other information that is relevent. In class's example, who are the jockeys? Is one of them Eric Cancel? When each of the three horses wins, what is it's deceleration, how the win accomplished, easily, hard fought? How many races in the last 100 days, was the last hard race it's best in a while, but only tree weeks ago? WEhat are the running styles? Need the lead, early presser?

Most important what are the odds? Maybe even more important, what does the next race look like?

Handicappingis a puzzle. You need more than the corner pieces.

[MJC922]

The way I was dealing with it when I was using time comes down to what are the average internal fractions for a specific final time, distance and surface. When you have that, now working backward which fractions exceeded that baseline and to what degree did they exceed it. Once you have those inputs you can study the impact on the final time. If you want to argue that the impact on a group of bucketed 6f in 110-111 is invalid, it comes down to the individual anyway that's ok, I don't entirely disagree there will be individual variation but what I'm saying is this is about as close as we can get to bringing hard data to the table. The impact will surely be different for different distances and surfaces.

Now back waaay up because it also implies that you have taken care to correct for wind conditions first which the average segments and their differences from 'par' for the final times will point out to you. So if we have an entire card of horses running two fifths faster on average during the backstretch segment of the race then we know the wind variant for the segment is two fifths (tailwind conditions), with the wind variant(s) applied at this point you can start looking at energy distribution for the individual horses. Now that the fractions been corrected for the wind what are the average fractions for this horse's final time, not the race winner, not the race fractions, looking strictly at the horse's own times you can then recalculate the horse's expected final time given a more optimum energy distribution. This isn't going to be perfect no matter what, there will always be headstrong runaway free-running horses that never really do or can ration their speed but I think at the end of the day if your accuracy improves the final estimates it's worth the trade-off, you'll just have to be wary of free running horses OR identify them somehow if they consistently distribute their energy improperly then you'll have to make an exemption for this subset of horses.

[Dave Schwartz]

Logically, anything that is 94% in use by the public is destined to fail.

(Not that I believe these figures are kosher.)

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by MJC922

The way I was dealing with it when I was using time comes down to what are the average internal fractions for a specific final time, distance and surface. When you have that, now working backward which fractions exceeded that baseline and to what degree did they exceed it. Once you have those inputs you can study the impact on the final time. If you want to argue that the impact on a group of bucketed 6f in 110-111 is invalid, it comes down to the individual anyway that's ok, I don't entirely disagree there will be individual variation but what I'm saying is this is about as close as we can get to bringing hard data to the table. The impact will surely be different for different distances and surfaces.

Now back waaay up because it also implies that you have taken care to correct for wind conditions first which the average segments and their differences from 'par' for the final times will point out to you. So if we have an entire card of horses running two fifths faster on average during the backstretch segment of the race then we know the wind variant for the segment is two fifths (tailwind conditions), with the wind variant(s) applied at this point you can start looking at energy distribution for the individual horses. Now that the fractions been corrected for the wind what are the average fractions for this horse's final time, not the race winner, not the race fractions, looking strictly at the horse's own times you can then recalculate the horse's expected final time given a more optimum energy distribution. This isn't going to be perfect no matter what, there will always be headstrong runaway free-running horses that never really do or can ration their speed but I think at the end of the day if your accuracy improves the final estimates it's worth the trade-off, you'll just have to be wary of free running horses OR identify them somehow if they consistently distribute their energy improperly then you'll have to make an exemption for this subset of horses.

Actually , I start in the opposite direction...

1ST Fraction...

Determine this from the front runners(s)

Then see who can compete....

Remembering Jim Bradshaw.....

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

Actually , I start in the opposite direction...

1ST Fraction...

Determine this from the front runners(s)

Then see who can compete....

Remembering Jim Bradshaw.....

I think you're talking about handicapping today's race and I'm talking about assessing the impact of energy distribution in a previous race. In theory if I'm carrying forward more accurate data from previously rated races as inputs to today's handicapping process then I'm setting myself up for success against those who aren't.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I think you're talking about handicapping today's race and I'm talking about assessing the impact of energy distribution in a previous race. In theory if I'm carrying forward more accurate data from previously rated races as inputs to today's handicapping process then I'm setting myself up for success against those who aren't.

In my many years handicapping and talking to many people and having many programs...


Early Distribution does not work.....



I am open to see otherwise.....

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by BroadwayJoe

In my many years handicapping and talking to many people and having many programs...


Early Distribution does not work.....



I am open to see otherwise.....

In what sense? I rely heavily on %Median. Maybe not in the same way as others see it.

[BroadwayJoe]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

In what sense? I rely heavily on %Median. Maybe not in the same way as others see it.

Would you like to take a race and explain?