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Old 04-17-2022, 11:01 AM   #1
westernmassbob
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Charlestown

WTF ! There is no rhyme or reason to any of their races. There is never any type of track bias that favors horses on any particular day. Every horse has an equal opportunity to win. It seems like the jockeys don’t even have any kind of strategy they just blow the horses out of the gate and whatever happens happens. Forgot about a jockey rating a horses speed. No rates ever. What is going on at that track ? I get that oddities happen in horse racing but the oddities seem more prevalent then any other venue. I hope it’s not another Great Lakes Downs scenario or back when Penn National had all those frog juice races.
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Old 04-17-2022, 11:25 AM   #2
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Charlestown

At least it is 10%
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Old 04-17-2022, 11:26 AM   #3
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I tried playing this track in the summer and found that the majority of the time the favourites would either win every race or it would be a longshot players day

Here is what happened last night:

Favourites went 2 for 8 (25%) yesterday with the average winner's odds being (excluding the favourites) 10.40-1 but with the favourites included in the data it goes down a bit to 8.06-1

Posts 1-3 won the most races while Stalkers were the most favorable running style

Average BL at 1C/2C
Dirt Sprints 2.1 1.1
Dirt Routes 3.0 0.0

It looks like the Last 4 racing days have seen Stalkers being the most favorable running style with posts 1-3 getting the most wins

Sorry for the rambling but it looks like Charles Town plays inside so far with Stalkers being the best running style and 2 lengths 1C and 1 length 2C
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Old 04-17-2022, 11:44 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by westernmassbob View Post
WTF ! There is no rhyme or reason to any of their races. There is never any type of track bias that favors horses on any particular day. Every horse has an equal opportunity to win. It seems like the jockeys don’t even have any kind of strategy they just blow the horses out of the gate and whatever happens happens. Forgot about a jockey rating a horses speed. No rates ever. What is going on at that track ? I get that oddities happen in horse racing but the oddities seem more prevalent then any other venue. I hope it’s not another Great Lakes Downs scenario or back when Penn National had all those frog juice races.
Hi, Bob, and happy Easter. Having played lots of Charlestown this past winter (while passing time before taking my son home from his 4 to 12 job at Mnr's hotel/casino), I am likewise amazed at the almost complete absence of strategy employed in 6 1/2 and 7 furlong races. Seeing jocks routinely go to the whip early into the backstretch in two-turn races takes some getting used to. And all those frantic rides , along with unfamiliar placements of the poles, do disorient me as an observer so accustomed to the classic one-mile configuration.

I did detect (what I thought was) a moderate anti-rail bias that took hold for a period earlier this year. And that made it profitable to focus at 4 1/2 on aggressive pressers and early types likely to race buffered out from the rail.

For several reasons, I found it much harder to spot and exploit the contrasting pro-rail trend that can also pop up
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Old 04-17-2022, 12:22 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
I tried playing this track in the summer and found that the majority of the time the favourites would either win every race or it would be a longshot players day

Here is what happened last night:

Favourites went 2 for 8 (25%) yesterday with the average winner's odds being (excluding the favourites) 10.40-1 but with the favourites included in the data it goes down a bit to 8.06-1

Posts 1-3 won the most races while Stalkers were the most favorable running style

Average BL at 1C/2C
Dirt Sprints 2.1 1.1
Dirt Routes 3.0 0.0

It looks like the Last 4 racing days have seen Stalkers being the most favorable running style with posts 1-3 getting the most wins

Sorry for the rambling but it looks like Charles Town plays inside so far with Stalkers being the best running style and 2 lengths 1C and 1 length 2C
You did your homework, now seeing jockeys seem to be the talk here, add in the riders ability at this specoific track and you are probably going to do all right,
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Old 04-17-2022, 01:47 PM   #6
Robert Fischer
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I got lucky there in early March with a small win.

horse was big odds, and the fun name caught my eye, and then I noticed was loose on the TimeformUS paceprojector and was cutting back from 7f hot pace duels to a 4.5f loose lead 12 days later.
was worth a small hunch play


In general I don't play CT unless I have a big vulnerable chalk or very bored/gambling mood.

it's tough. They had a couple days when maybe Lrl was closed for winter maintenance? And some LRL horses were getting into fields there, which had me briefly following as well.
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Old 04-17-2022, 02:35 PM   #7
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on Saturday's 5th race @ Woodbine, Mark Casse sent out a West Virginia Bred that they paid $300,000 for. he ran a bad third going 5/8ths. this horse can't win in Charlestown West Virginia breds and has no shot at Mountaineer on the turf.

keep yourself clear of ICING, no matter where he goes.
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Old 04-17-2022, 04:04 PM   #8
mountainman
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Big Heavy Boy's (aka Anthony Farrior) utter domination of Ct's non-restricted races has soured lots of players I know on betting that track.

Sure, it's easy to discern that his entrants get habitually over-bet, but with the guy batting almost 500, lots of luck betting against him. For the most part, however, I do look hard for spots in which he seems vulnerable, perhaps due to race-shape, or maybe stiff competition, but also when his entrant's form appears suspect from the standpoint of soundness or potential decline. Pick your poison. He probably will feed it to you. Or pay the Farrior tax by betting on him, and thus guarantee yourself a drawn out and painful death.

Big Heavy Boy (admittedly, a friend of mine..but, then again, I'm also friends with Kevin Patterson and on great terms with Runco) walks loud and with swag. So I can only imagine how the old -guard horsemen down there, so deeply entrenched and imbued with long-standing clout must resent him.

Things tend to get very personal in that neck of the woods.

Last edited by mountainman; 04-17-2022 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 04-17-2022, 06:03 PM   #9
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Patterson not as dominant of late and Farrier , agreed, tough to bet on and against.

Place was better without either of them to be honest. Many breakdowns and unfit horses make me suspicious of both these guys. Seem like corporate horsemen with no regard for the horses at all. I find Runco and Grams to be totally opposite.

That being said I could be totally off on all counts. Ulike Mark I know none of these guys personally.

First week of April had huge inside speed bias which was quite profitable if one caught it.

Also curious if Farrier will be shuttling some off to Helms and Clouston this meet. Witness race 2 at the Mountain tomorrow. What does one do with Bipapartisan Brook in race 2 tomorrow?

Any opinions.
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Old 04-17-2022, 08:42 PM   #10
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Patterson not as dominant of late and Farrier , agreed, tough to bet on and against.

Place was better without either of them to be honest. Many breakdowns and unfit horses make me suspicious of both these guys. Seem like corporate horsemen with no regard for the horses at all. I find Runco and Grams to be totally opposite.

That being said I could be totally off on all counts. Ulike Mark I know none of these guys personally.

First week of April had huge inside speed bias which was quite profitable if one caught it.

Also curious if Farrier will be shuttling some off to Helms and Clouston this meet. Witness race 2 at the Mountain tomorrow. What does one do with Bipapartisan Brook in race 2 tomorrow?

Any opinions.
Hi, Boom. Runco, Farrior, and Patterson..three distinctly different kind of guys, in both personality and M.O. And each conducts his business behind the scenes in a uniquely differing manner.

Runco, an implacable pro, cool and efficient, always out ahead of his business. Farrior and Patterson more passionate, the former forever testing the rules and pushing the envelope behind a veil of charm and self-deprecation. Patterson outwardly friendly and sincerely down to earth, but burning with a barely concealed obsession with beating everybody-every time.

Of the three, I am no doubt closest to Patterson, about whom I once wrote a blog entitled "undefeated" which I like to think largely prophesized the other-worldly roll that propelled him to an all time record for consecutive wins.

I do think what elevates Patterson, at least in terms of accomplishment, above other super-trainers (although, in truth, whose win % based on a similar number of starters has ever even approached his?) is that he wins races with tons of horses completely unsuccessful for their previous trainers. And his record of transforming them into veritable win-machines surely stands unprecedented in t-bred history.

Maybe I am wrong here, Boom, but I can't recall him ever breaking a horse down, or even one of his runners failing to make the course.

Last edited by mountainman; 04-17-2022 at 08:45 PM.
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Old 04-17-2022, 11:04 PM   #11
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Very simple track to handicap - class, distance, and surface condition. No reason to even look at pace, speed figures, or track variants
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Old 04-23-2022, 10:04 PM   #12
westernmassbob
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Chucktown back at it again tonight with the bombs. Once again no pace , horses being blown out, jockeys making super late moves in stretch. At least they are consistent with the shenanigans.
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Old 04-24-2022, 05:33 PM   #13
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Chucktown back at it again tonight with the bombs. Once again no pace , horses being blown out, jockeys making super late moves in stretch. At least they are consistent with the shenanigans.
You talking about KEENELAND?
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Old 04-24-2022, 08:33 PM   #14
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4/22 bias notes for Charles Town

Very strong Front Runner bias with posts 1-3 getting 4 wins on the card
Stalkers and Trailers were at a disadvantage tonight so horses on the Front were aided


They did race 4/23 too but I didn't find any type of favouring bias to note down
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Old 04-24-2022, 08:35 PM   #15
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4/22 bias notes for Charles Town

Very strong Front Runner bias with posts 1-3 getting 4 wins on the card
Stalkers and Trailers were at a disadvantage tonight so horses on the Front were aided


They did race 4/23 too but I didn't find any type of favouring bias to note down
I also have been keeping notes on Biases at other tracks throughout the US and Canada (including here for Woodbine) so if anyone wanted a note or 2 from the races starting on 4/21 I am available to give them out per request
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