Bad Trip Handicapping Service

[teddy]

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best. If anyone wants to do this I personally would pay up to a 100 bucks a month. Should provide about 5 plays a day or more. NO body I know does this.. Could be a opportunity for one of you retired guys to get a ton of subs. Patreon or whatever.. Maybe 3 the big 3 tracks. Would take you an hour a day I think.. route races are the best cause they get wide for 2 turns and then next out they pop.

[Brisk Urging]

Originally Posted by teddy

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best. If anyone wants to do this I personally would pay up to a 100 bucks a month. Should provide about 5 plays a day or more. NO body I know does this.. Could be a opportunity for one of you retired guys to get a ton of subs. Patreon or whatever.. Maybe 3 the big 3 tracks. Would take you an hour a day I think.. route races are the best cause they get wide for 2 turns and then next out they pop.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...arMWKEaqbDFlkA

[teddy]

That dude wants $400 a month pertrack

[Dave Schwartz]

The TEDSTER IS BACK!

Where have you been?

[teddy]

Just preparing for my next life in asia lol.. like all smart older men. I may do this as a hobby since nobody seems to have a real cheaper service..

[Light]

Originally Posted by teddy

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best.

You're speaking anecdotally about wide trips. I use to flag any horse going 5 wide or more. Not impressed with their comebacks. No guarantee they wont go wide again. Dropped flagging them. More impressive are horses who:

steadied
Jostled
Bobbled
awkward
stumbled
bothered
hopped
hit
shuffled
Pinched
hesitated
checked
hopped
boxed
squeezed
lunged
ducked
lost footing
dwelt
Bumped hard
clipped
slammed
blocked
slipped
Took up
Jumped
Reared
Tangle
Threw head
Pinballed



That's what my program flags.

But if you want to do what you say, Bris has 2 comments on trips and trouble. The short ones are what you see in the form. The "extended" trip comments can be accessed with the $1 data files. Put the extended comments into a spread sheet and have the word "wide" flagged with a macro. Now you have a collection of horses on the card you can quickly zoom in on. But you would be missing out on all those other horses with troubled trips.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Light

You're speaking anecdotally about wide trips. I use to flag any horse going 5 wide or more. Not impressed with their comebacks. No guarantee they wont go wide again. Dropped flagging them. More impressive are horses who:

steadied
Jostled
Bobbled
awkward
stumbled
bothered
hopped
hit
shuffled
Pinched
hesitated
checked
hopped
boxed
squeezed
lunged
ducked
lost footing
dwelt
Bumped hard
clipped
slammed
blocked
slipped
Took up
Jumped
Reared
Tangle
Threw head
Pinballed



That's what my program flags.

But if you want to do what you say, Bris has 2 comments on trips and trouble. The short ones are what you see in the form. The "extended" trip comments can be accessed with the $1 data files. Put the extended comments into a spread sheet and have the word "wide" flagged with a macro. Now you have a collection of horses on the card you can quickly zoom in on. But you would be missing out on all those other horses with troubled trips.

Do you only flag these for the most recent start or is there any merit to looking beyond?

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by teddy

I wish someone would watch all the races in the major tracks each day and put the horses in race watch and send them out Daily to subs. I did it for a month and had win after win. Wide trips were the best. If anyone wants to do this I personally would pay up to a 100 bucks a month. Should provide about 5 plays a day or more. NO body I know does this.. Could be a opportunity for one of you retired guys to get a ton of subs. Patreon or whatever.. Maybe 3 the big 3 tracks. Would take you an hour a day I think.. route races are the best cause they get wide for 2 turns and then next out they pop.

I watch replays of every NYRA race and make notes in the charts (not for every horse, but for those that had trouble etc etc) and put runners I want to watch in my stable mail.
I look for wide trips (focusing on those who were wide into the 1st turn on the inner turf courses, those who made a wide bid on the 2nd turn when the pace was quickening), and those who gained ground during a fast final fraction.
Other factors are noted, of course...such as a bad break or traffic trouble, but I've noticed these runners all seem to get bet in their next race.

Overlays are rare.

[Bustin Stones]

Great post. I look for some of these. I note any excuse in the last race or two if they are a victim, such as pinched or bumped. I don't note stuff like slipped or hopped as it was of the horse's own doing.

[teddy]

The wide first turn horses did very well in my wagers. I only looked at routes. They did not get bet next out from what I saw...

What would people pay for a daily list of horses that were wide.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I watch replays of every NYRA race and make notes in the charts (not for every horse, but for those that had trouble etc etc) and put runners I want to watch in my stable mail.
I look for wide trips (focusing on those who were wide into the 1st turn on the inner turf courses, those who made a wide bid on the 2nd turn when the pace was quickening), and those who gained ground during a fast final fraction.
Other factors are noted, of course...such as a bad break or traffic trouble, but I've noticed these runners all seem to get bet in their next race.

Overlays are rare.

Phantom,

You've just made a wonderful point.

So, here you are doing this wonderful, laborious work and someone else gets many of the same horses simply by looking for those who are "getting bet" today.

This is why so many truly gifted pace handicappers don't do as well as expected: there are just too many ways for other people to wind up on the same horses (despite having no such gift).

[classhandicapper]

There are a lot of competent public handicappers and podcasters out there that make selections and give away their reasons for the selections.

That's why you can watch NYRA replays all night long, make all sorts of notes, and still struggle to find much value. A lot of the horses you find will be talked about on TV or on a podcast and others will be found by other hard working handicappers that learned what to look for by listening to sharp handicappers on TV and podcasts.

Of course if you are selling information or getting paid to make and discuss selections publicly you are going to do the best you can and may be making more than you could gambling anyway, but this is one of the rare businesses where people often give away the "secret formula" to Coke or Kentucky Friend Chicken for free and then complain about the competition.

[Light]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Do you only flag these for the most recent start or is there any merit to looking beyond?

I flag the trouble the horse had in relation to the past performance line I am using for the horse .If the horse had trouble in its last race and its sr is worse than 2 back without trouble that seems like a legitimate excuse to use the race 2 back if its conditions were somewhat similar to today's.

[Light]

Originally Posted by teddy

The wide first turn horses did very well in my wagers. I only looked at routes. They did not get bet next out from what I saw...

What would people pay for a daily list of horses that were wide.

You're being too general. In every race you can find horses going wide. So what? The vast majority will not come back to win. Obviously you are using other more important factors to decide on who to bet. Its nice when you like a horse and you see it went wide but if you are saying all contenders that went wide are a bet, I have a bridge to sell you.

Also a serious player would know the roi of "wide" moves and its hit rate. You don't seem to.

[classhandicapper]

IMO ground loss is still a fertile area for overlays, but only because Thorograph and Ragonzin Sheets apply ground loss uniformly and have a huge impact on the board.

IMO, there are tracks where ground loss tends to be more or less important, days where it is more or less important, and portions of a race where it can be more or less important.

IMHO, the trick is to think about it less in terms of adjusting the speed figure or beaten lengths for the extra ground covered and more in terms of how it impacted the horse's ability to maintain or improve it's position and how much extra energy the horse used to maintain or improve that position.