Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-30-2022, 02:32 PM   #1
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Florida Derby

Strike Hard
Classic Causeway
Simplification
King of Truth
Pappacap
Charge It
White Abarrio
Cajun's Magic
O Captain
Clapton
Steal Sunshine


The Florida Derby is usually quite chalky. Pletcher has bagged five out of the last eight renewals and brings the lightly run and well bred Charge It with Saez aboard. That's my selection here, however, I'm skeptical I'll get the 7/2 ML. He won't be too chalky though, with Classic Causeway, Simplification, and White Abarrio in there.

A couple random stats: The FL Derby has been the most prolific KY Derby prep, producing 24 winners, including 15 that won both. No horse that failed to win the FL Derby has won the KY Derby since Go For Gin in 1994. Seven FL Derby winners have won the roses since then. Basically, you want your tentative Derby pick to win this race or you might want to consider going back to the drawing board.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2022, 01:24 PM   #2
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2022, 02:25 PM   #3
f2tornado
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
^ This wouldn't surprise me. The prototypical FL Derby winner will get a 103 Brisnet figure and this guy hasn't cleared 99 in three routes. What you've seen is probably what you'll get (95,92,99). Further, while there are no pure speedsters in here, White Abarrio, Pappacap, and Charge It suggest he might not get a modest 1:12 6F call this time.

Also, while the FL Derby winner is usually one of the top three in the ML, the place horse is often not one of those:

2021: Soup and Sandwich 12-1
2020: Shivaree 80-1
2019: Bodexpress 71-1
2018: Hofburg 8-1

I could make a decent case for O Captain to squeeze in there. The horse has improving Brisnet figures, gets the services of Rosario, has a pile of dosage points, and a double Buckpasser-x. He got out slow last out which probably dulled his mild late rally to hit the show pool in FOY. Strike Hard and Cajon Magic seem to like the surface and close on the speed figures. I'll have some fun with the dime super here mixing the chalks with a few bombers underneath.
f2tornado is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2022, 05:18 PM   #4
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
^ This wouldn't surprise me. The prototypical FL Derby winner will get a 103 Brisnet figure and this guy hasn't cleared 99 in three routes. What you've seen is probably what you'll get (95,92,99). Further, while there are no pure speedsters in here, White Abarrio, Pappacap, and Charge It suggest he might not get a modest 1:12 6F call this time.

Also, while the FL Derby winner is usually one of the top three in the ML, the place horse is often not one of those:

2021: Soup and Sandwich 12-1
2020: Shivaree 80-1
2019: Bodexpress 71-1
2018: Hofburg 8-1

I could make a decent case for O Captain to squeeze in there. The horse has improving Brisnet figures, gets the services of Rosario, has a pile of dosage points, and a double Buckpasser-x. He got out slow last out which probably dulled his mild late rally to hit the show pool in FOY. Strike Hard and Cajon Magic seem to like the surface and close on the speed figures. I'll have some fun with the dime super here mixing the chalks with a few bombers underneath.
good points on some of the place horses being prices
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2022, 08:29 PM   #5
Michael
Registered User
 
Michael's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
If you drop the filly into the mix... Secret Oath looks like a contender.

Never been a huge fan of simplification. The horse seems to win without changing leads, and I think I read the other day that the horse finally learned. In any case, I have Classic Causway on top... but kind of hope White Abario wins so I can toss him in the Derby.

Michael is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-31-2022, 09:27 PM   #6
Bustin Stones
Registered User
 
Bustin Stones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
I'm taking Charge It. This looks like a classic lightly raced horse continuing to improve. I don't want to miss the ride.
Bustin Stones is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-01-2022, 06:08 PM   #7
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,574
My toss is Charge It. I don't think Pletcher ever won a FL derby with a horse coming off a maiden win. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

My value play is Strike Hard. If he rides the rail and gets a perfect trip he could sneak through for a piece. Draw a line thru his last race because of the wide trip. My only concern is why he didn't run in the Fountain Of Youth. But at 20-1, I'm in. If he starts rising up the tote, I'm out.
Redboard is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-01-2022, 09:39 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
These penultimate 'Derbys' and some solid big cards Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Turfway?, and then next week the Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass and Wood Memorial.

gives you an 'opportunity' to find some value plays or lucky scores, and that's all you can ask
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 12:30 AM   #9
jocko699
Resurrectionist
 
jocko699's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
Going to make a bet on with a W/S bet on the
jocko699 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 08:43 AM   #10
Redboard
$2 Showbettor
 
Redboard's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,574
I hope you are right Robert. The last few "big" days have been chalkfests. I hope the 50 cent late pick 5 doesn't end up paying 60 cents.
Redboard is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 10:25 AM   #11
PalaceOfFortLarned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,003
What strikes me is the emergence of the sire Not This Time in this year's Triple Crown run.

Retired after his runner up finish in the 2016 BC Juvy, he is a big time player in this year's run for the roses.

Epicenter is already locked in as one of the Derby favorites after his impressive performance in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.

Here in the Florida Derby, we have Simplification who is the ML favorite.

In the Arkansas Derby, Chasing Time is in with a shot, and then there is In Due Time that returned to the work tab yesterday after his runner up finish in the Fountain of Youth.

And with all that said I'm going with White Abarrio at 7/2 or better. Really interested in how much action the Charge It takes. Has that 'now' horse feeling.

Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 04-02-2022 at 10:27 AM.
PalaceOfFortLarned is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 11:31 AM   #12
Michael
Registered User
 
Michael's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
as per equibase
Mostly Cloudy
Wind SSE at 10 mph
Temperature 85°F
Humidity 63%

Did it rain there last night? or is rain in the pipeline? my guess is it should be fine at 63% humidity... That said, I've read and heard others say it might rain?
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 12:52 PM   #13
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
wow,

what a strong field.

there's going to be a couple/few really good horses that will be otb in this race.

these horses would have potentially won or hit the board in a few of the other really light preps.
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 12:59 PM   #14
boys at tosconova
Registered User
 
boys at tosconova's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
My toss is Charge It. I don't think Pletcher ever won a FL derby with a horse coming off a maiden win. You can correct me if I'm wrong.

My value play is Strike Hard. If he rides the rail and gets a perfect trip he could sneak through for a piece. Draw a line thru his last race because of the wide trip. My only concern is why he didn't run in the Fountain Of Youth. But at 20-1, I'm in. If he starts rising up the tote, I'm out.
seems like the 1 is worthy of a longshot that might be able to menace.

the bad news is that simp and white ab both beat him by 4L and cc beat him by 6L. now he must handle pletcher as well. and if you put a line through pappas's last race, him as well


good news is he's not saddled with an outside post, this is his 2nd time route and should improve and wasn't very high, odds wise is a couple of those previous races.
boys at tosconova is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2022, 01:26 PM   #15
jocko699
Resurrectionist
 
jocko699's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699 View Post
Going to make a bet on with a W/S bet on the
Should be not
jocko699 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.