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03-30-2022, 02:32 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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Florida Derby
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03-31-2022, 01:24 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-31-2022, 02:25 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
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^ This wouldn't surprise me. The prototypical FL Derby winner will get a 103 Brisnet figure and this guy hasn't cleared 99 in three routes. What you've seen is probably what you'll get (95,92,99). Further, while there are no pure speedsters in here, White Abarrio, Pappacap, and Charge It suggest he might not get a modest 1:12 6F call this time.
Also, while the FL Derby winner is usually one of the top three in the ML, the place horse is often not one of those:
2021: Soup and Sandwich 12-1
2020: Shivaree 80-1
2019: Bodexpress 71-1
2018: Hofburg 8-1
I could make a decent case for O Captain to squeeze in there. The horse has improving Brisnet figures, gets the services of Rosario, has a pile of dosage points, and a double Buckpasser-x. He got out slow last out which probably dulled his mild late rally to hit the show pool in FOY. Strike Hard and Cajon Magic seem to like the surface and close on the speed figures. I'll have some fun with the dime super here mixing the chalks with a few bombers underneath.
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03-31-2022, 05:18 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
^ This wouldn't surprise me. The prototypical FL Derby winner will get a 103 Brisnet figure and this guy hasn't cleared 99 in three routes. What you've seen is probably what you'll get (95,92,99). Further, while there are no pure speedsters in here, White Abarrio, Pappacap, and Charge It suggest he might not get a modest 1:12 6F call this time.
Also, while the FL Derby winner is usually one of the top three in the ML, the place horse is often not one of those:
2021: Soup and Sandwich 12-1
2020: Shivaree 80-1
2019: Bodexpress 71-1
2018: Hofburg 8-1
I could make a decent case for O Captain to squeeze in there. The horse has improving Brisnet figures, gets the services of Rosario, has a pile of dosage points, and a double Buckpasser-x. He got out slow last out which probably dulled his mild late rally to hit the show pool in FOY. Strike Hard and Cajon Magic seem to like the surface and close on the speed figures. I'll have some fun with the dime super here mixing the chalks with a few bombers underneath.
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good points on some of the place horses being prices
__________________
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03-31-2022, 08:29 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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03-31-2022, 09:27 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 774
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I'm taking Charge It. This looks like a classic lightly raced horse continuing to improve. I don't want to miss the ride.
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04-01-2022, 06:08 PM
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#7
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,574
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My toss is Charge It. I don't think Pletcher ever won a FL derby with a horse coming off a maiden win. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
My value play is Strike Hard. If he rides the rail and gets a perfect trip he could sneak through for a piece. Draw a line thru his last race because of the wide trip. My only concern is why he didn't run in the Fountain Of Youth. But at 20-1, I'm in. If he starts rising up the tote, I'm out.
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04-01-2022, 09:39 PM
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#8
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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These penultimate 'Derbys' and some solid big cards Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Turfway?, and then next week the Santa Anita Derby, Bluegrass and Wood Memorial.
gives you an 'opportunity' to find some value plays or lucky scores, and that's all you can ask
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-02-2022, 12:30 AM
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#9
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Going to make a bet on with a W/S bet on the
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04-02-2022, 08:43 AM
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#10
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$2 Showbettor
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: The Villages
Posts: 2,574
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I hope you are right Robert. The last few "big" days have been chalkfests. I hope the 50 cent late pick 5 doesn't end up paying 60 cents.
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04-02-2022, 10:25 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 2,003
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What strikes me is the emergence of the sire Not This Time in this year's Triple Crown run.
Retired after his runner up finish in the 2016 BC Juvy, he is a big time player in this year's run for the roses.
Epicenter is already locked in as one of the Derby favorites after his impressive performance in the Louisiana Derby last weekend.
Here in the Florida Derby, we have Simplification who is the ML favorite.
In the Arkansas Derby, Chasing Time is in with a shot, and then there is In Due Time that returned to the work tab yesterday after his runner up finish in the Fountain of Youth.
And with all that said I'm going with White Abarrio at 7/2 or better. Really interested in how much action the Charge It takes. Has that 'now' horse feeling.
Last edited by PalaceOfFortLarned; 04-02-2022 at 10:27 AM.
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04-02-2022, 11:31 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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as per equibase
Mostly Cloudy
Wind SSE at 10 mph
Temperature 85°F
Humidity 63%
Did it rain there last night? or is rain in the pipeline? my guess is it should be fine at 63% humidity... That said, I've read and heard others say it might rain?
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04-02-2022, 12:52 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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wow,
what a strong field.
there's going to be a couple/few really good horses that will be otb in this race.
these horses would have potentially won or hit the board in a few of the other really light preps.
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04-02-2022, 12:59 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
My toss is Charge It. I don't think Pletcher ever won a FL derby with a horse coming off a maiden win. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
My value play is Strike Hard. If he rides the rail and gets a perfect trip he could sneak through for a piece. Draw a line thru his last race because of the wide trip. My only concern is why he didn't run in the Fountain Of Youth. But at 20-1, I'm in. If he starts rising up the tote, I'm out.
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seems like the 1 is worthy of a longshot that might be able to menace.
the bad news is that simp and white ab both beat him by 4L and cc beat him by 6L. now he must handle pletcher as well. and if you put a line through pappas's last race, him as well
good news is he's not saddled with an outside post, this is his 2nd time route and should improve and wasn't very high, odds wise is a couple of those previous races.
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04-02-2022, 01:26 PM
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#15
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Going to make a bet on with a W/S bet on the
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Should be not
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