Wayne: Run that filly in the Derby

[Someday Silent]

So maybe the wine I got from my mother in law is talking for me, but Secret Oath should run on the first Saturday in May. Not only did she look like Serena Williams amongst seventh graders, she also ran substantially faster than those colts in the Rebel.

[SG4]

A lot of reasons why she might show up in the Arkansas Derby to at least give it a shot in qualifying for the Derby - she already has enough points for Oaks entry, slow effort by the boys in the Rebel, already nominated for the Ark Derby, Lukas with a solid history of taking on the colts with fillies & given that Baffert horses will likely be excluded that will lighten the starting gate for the first Saturday in May as well. The initial quote I saw today was pointing toward the Fantasy but if she comes out of the race well I think we're going to see them gravitate to try & take on the colts in Arkansas.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SG4

given that Baffert horses will likely be excluded that will lighten the starting gate for the first Saturday in May as well.

Wayne Lukas mentioned the Arkansas Derby prior to the Honey Bee, so I'm sure its on the radar. However, his late-developing colt ran well in the Rebel so maybe he thinks that one will continue to progress.

That aside, the whole Baffert exclusion thing is starting to appear moot. Firstly, it is ridiculous to think that Baffert would have had more than a couple of starters in the Derby (people always forget he usually starts off with half a dozen prospects at the beginning of the year and loses 3 or 4 along the way). Secondly, his group this year, if not suspect physically, is suspect talent wise.

Newgrange - won 2 underwhelming Grade 3s and got drilled today
Messier - was upset in the Los Al Futurity, won a weak Grade 3, now reportedly will have to be babied into a major prep race
Doppelgänger - drilled in a sprint stakes
Pinehurst - bred and running like a one-turn horse
Blackadder - only stakes win on the Tapeta
Corniche - not working as far as anyone on the outside knows, and no guarantee he's going back to the Baffert barn if he is
Rockefeller - patchy worktab since barely saving the place spot in the weak Sham

He's got a couple benchwarmers that might wake up I suppose but even if one jumps up in a big prep, they rarely follow through in the classics (Sinister Minister, Midnight Interlude, Collected, Wimbledon, Indian Express).

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Wayne Lukas mentioned the Arkansas Derby prior to the Honey Bee, so I'm sure its on the radar. However, his late-developing colt ran well in the Rebel so maybe he thinks that one will continue to progress.

That aside, the whole Baffert exclusion thing is starting to appear moot. Firstly, it is ridiculous to think that Baffert would have had more than a couple of starters in the Derby (people always forget he usually starts off with half a dozen prospects at the beginning of the year and loses 3 or 4 along the way). Secondly, his group this year, if not suspect physically, is suspect talent wise.

Newgrange - won 2 underwhelming Grade 3s and got drilled today
Messier - was upset in the Los Al Futurity, won a weak Grade 3, now reportedly will have to be babied into a major prep race
Doppelgänger - drilled in a sprint stakes
Pinehurst - bred and running like a one-turn horse
Blackadder - only stakes win on the Tapeta
Corniche - not working as far as anyone on the outside knows, and no guarantee he's going back to the Baffert barn if he is
Rockefeller - patchy worktab since barely saving the place spot in the weak Sham

He's got a couple benchwarmers that might wake up I suppose but even if one jumps up in a big prep, they rarely follow through in the classics (Sinister Minister, Midnight Interlude, Collected, Wimbledon, Indian Express).

ELITE POST

[SG4]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Wayne Lukas mentioned the Arkansas Derby prior to the Honey Bee, so I'm sure its on the radar. However, his late-developing colt ran well in the Rebel so maybe he thinks that one will continue to progress.

That aside, the whole Baffert exclusion thing is starting to appear moot. Firstly, it is ridiculous to think that Baffert would have had more than a couple of starters in the Derby (people always forget he usually starts off with half a dozen prospects at the beginning of the year and loses 3 or 4 along the way). Secondly, his group this year, if not suspect physically, is suspect talent wise.

Newgrange - won 2 underwhelming Grade 3s and got drilled today
Messier - was upset in the Los Al Futurity, won a weak Grade 3, now reportedly will have to be babied into a major prep race
Doppelgänger - drilled in a sprint stakes
Pinehurst - bred and running like a one-turn horse
Blackadder - only stakes win on the Tapeta
Corniche - not working as far as anyone on the outside knows, and no guarantee he's going back to the Baffert barn if he is
Rockefeller - patchy worktab since barely saving the place spot in the weak Sham

He's got a couple benchwarmers that might wake up I suppose but even if one jumps up in a big prep, they rarely follow through in the classics (Sinister Minister, Midnight Interlude, Collected, Wimbledon, Indian Express).

Good recap. If the Derby was run today with all healthy 3yo's available, would Messier be the favorite? He'd have to be close to it, so even if it's just one Baffert out, that could be a pretty big deal. Same situation might apply to the Oaks as well with Adare Manor.



I hadn't read anything on Messier's health lately but I see he's been missing from the work tab recently, what's the story?

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by SG4

I hadn't read anything on Messier's health lately but I see he's been missing from the work tab recently, what's the story?

I think the Horse Racing Nation website mentioned he was going to "skip the next round of preps". Didn't provide any further details.

The horse is not even nominated to the San Felipe at Santa Anita (the race is Saturday).

[metro]

Seems the Rebel would have been a good starting point for Lukas to run Secret Oath against the boys. Get the Derby points out of the way if she's successful, if not she comes back in the Fantasy or the Ashland.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by metro

Seems the Rebel would have been a good starting point for Lukas to run Secret Oath against the boys. Get the Derby points out of the way if she's successful, if not she comes back in the Fantasy or the Ashland.

The Rebel looked weak going into it unless the Baffert horse had a breakout performance. It looks even weaker after the fact.

I'm not sure I've been impressed by a single 3yo colt yet. Messier may be very good, but imo he had a biased track helping him in his break out performance.

I guess the Risen Star horses are OK, but I'm not sold on them being serious Derby horses in the typical year yet either.

It looks like it may be a good year for an elite filly to take a shot, but I'm not sure Secret Oath is the filly to do it either. She's winning big and looking good doing it, but she's not breaking the clock or beating anything yet either. The Honeybee wasn't exactly a stellar field.

[SG4]

Messier back on the work tab today so at least he's still in the mix

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by SG4

Messier back on the work tab today so at least he's still in the mix

He won't be allowed to run.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by the little guy

He won't be allowed to run.

Hard to run in the derby with zero points.

Allan

[Someday Silent]

After watching Morello and Forbidden Kingdom this weekend, the Derby path looks a little more daunting for Secret Oath. I still think she has a legit chance though.

SO has the athleticism to make multiple moves within a race and overcome traffic trouble. Her pedigree looks pretty good for 10 furlongs. On the other hand, pedigree seems less important for the Derby now. Plus the recent consistent winning formula for the Derby is take the lead or lay second/third and coast home.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

After watching Morello and Forbidden Kingdom this weekend, the Derby path looks a little more daunting for Secret Oath.

I normally don't take these early NY horses seriously anymore. In fact, they are often so bad relative to the top tier if a top trainer brings his horse to NY I take it as a lack of confidence in his own horse to take on the serious 3yos. But even if Morello winds up not being a Derby horse, he looks like a legitimately good horse to me.

[v j stauffer]

I sure hope the lack of talk about SMILE HAPPY means most think he's not as much of a major player.

I thought his race in the Risen Star was excellent.

Of course they would have preferred to win. However, to me it looked like a perfect prep.

McPeek has said it's either the Florida Derby or the Bluegrass next.

IMO he's a MAJOR Derby player.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

IMO he's a MAJOR Derby player.

I'll wait for someone to interview McPeek ahead of the Kentucky Derby.

He might be using that race as a prep for Royal Ascot.