White Abarrio - Derby Spotlight! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Designed4Luck · 02-16-2022, 01:27 PM

Is he a true top 5 contender for the 2022 Derby?

classhandicapper · 04-29-2022, 09:14 AM

This horse is getting no respect at all.

He beat Mo Donegal easily. That one came back to win the Wood.

He beat Simplification clearly twice.

Simplification beat Emmanuel by 5 1/4 and Emmanuel came back to lose to Zandon and Smile Happy by 6 1/4 on a day I thought inside speed was not particularly good and played against him.

There are always subtle trips and 3yo development issues involved, but he probably at least fits in with the best horses and is getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.

I guess people don't like his closing time in the Florida Derby, but I thought that race got pretty hot in the middle. That may account for the whole field not closing particularly fast.

classhandicapper · 04-29-2022, 09:22 AM

No respect at all! :-)

Robert Fischer · 04-29-2022, 10:47 AM

White Abarrio has good and bad.

Not a horse that wows you with physicality and stride and classic-distance superiority of genetics.
However he's precocious, and he's been well conditioned to be a hard-hitter, and he can re-break. He's both been put in a situation where he can thrive, and he's also been conditioned hard in the mornings to show a response. It looks like Alvarado, and Gaffalione have personally been on him and conditioning him to the cues and getting him as sharp and tough as possible.

If this is the type of race shape where he can chase a pace that comes back a little bit, he is capable of hitting the board if he can work an efficient trip. It's possible there he can get a piece of the Tri or Su

I don't put any stock in the Mo Donegal comparison stuff. In that race (was it Holy Bull?) you had a goofy Romans or something low price in biased-post 9, but White Abarrio did a nice job from post 8 to be placed forward, and all you had was some goofy (Galt?) allowance horse trying to take a flyer from post 1, until White Abarrio inherited command (and then ran on well from there). Meanwhile Mo Donegal was patiently ridden in what can be assumed to have been a prep with emphasis on conserving style and form over points/results (unless the jock and trainer had no clue of the track layout and probable race flow). Mo Donegal may have been best in the Holy Bull, finished a literal 3rd.

Simplification is a joke, but his Florida Derby is at least respectable having changed leads and then given a point or so credit for attending the pace.

The crux is whether White Abarrio can get a smooth trip in a favoring flow. He'll probably run his race in that case. If there's a bunch of adversity, we could see some distance issues and just plain old normal stuff that happens in the Derby when you have adversity.

On the flip side, he could get some ABSOLUTE DREAM SCENARIO (unlikely) super lucky suck up rail-skimming trip. Where Tyler throws the crosses and he responds with a dream Super Saver trip

(sorry i had to type a bad hypothetical race call for full measure of this coffee rant)

""Passing the Twin Spires for the first time... Summer is Tomorrow setting the pace, with a neck in front. Taiba hung out 4-wide..." ... "Epicenter 5th down to the inside, Cyberknife is flattening... and as they straighten away in the stretch run, it's still Summer is Tomorrow with a tenuous lead.., and here comes Flavian Prat and ZANDON!!! Smile Happy to the center of the track... and Mo Donegal following too... And ZANDON!!!! they've kicked into high-gear! And Zandon is going right on by!!! and uhh uhh down to the inside... has come down through... that is... uh... white abarrio now... as they come down to the finish! spectacular!! "

classhandicapper · 04-29-2022, 11:05 AM

I'm looking for someone that may be overlooked to use in the verticals that has at least some chance of winning and that can hit the exacta, triple, or super if not. We have a week to go, but this one seems to be getting ignored. He looks even better on Thorograh. I don't think he's that bad or far off the better horses other than maybe Taiba if you think he's going to duplicate that SA Derby form in his 3rd start going 10F.

Robert Fischer · 04-29-2022, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm looking for someone that may be overlooked to use in the verticals that has at least some chance of winning and that can hit the exacta, triple, or super if not.

Good luck Class.

That's a great approach. It's possible he's your overlay.

This is such an interesting field. About to dive more into the full Oaks/Derby cards and P5s, sequences, ... but the Derby itself is really an honor to be able puzzle over. Interested in any opinions you have.

classhandicapper · 04-29-2022, 12:21 PM

These are the current odds offered at one off shore site.

classhandicapper · 04-29-2022, 12:29 PM

Simplification may not be so bad at his price either. He finished behind White Abbario last time, but he was more engaged in the pace when imo it got a little hot in the middle. We know he can finish if taken back.

Charge It is similar to White Abbario if you think he'll move forward.

Thomas Roulston · 04-30-2022, 06:29 PM

White Abarrio has no Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile.

Therefore, if he wins the Derby, he will do so without any of my money on him.

classhandicapper · 05-02-2022, 04:37 PM

These are the current odds available off shore at one location.

White Abbario dropped sharply from 15.91 to 10.16 - 1.

Taiba rose sharply from 6.27 to 12.17

Several others changed more modestly also.

classhandicapper · 05-05-2022, 08:25 AM

Andy Beyer picked him last night on a videocast with Jay Privman for the DRF.

I liked him a lot more at 16-1 than 10-1, but I'll probably use him and Simplification on my tickets at prices similar to what they look like now.

I think those Florida races may be being overlooked a bit. They looked pretty good on paper to me going in and the horses are running out of them fine.

The Florida Derby was pretty hot in the middle. That probably caused the race to collapse a bit late.

Simplification probably got the worst of the setup because he was challenging up front while White Abbarrio was running wide and fast into it while they were still moving along. The outside paths were pretty good that day. So maybe being wide wasn't as big an issue as it sometimes is, but I don't think WA got a perfect trip either.

The one that's trickier for me is Charge It. His setup was a little better, but he was green. Normally I'd expect a forward move, but I have no idea how to handle these very lightly raced horses at 10F on dirt in May.

(this thread should probably be moved to the Triple Crown area)

Tom · 05-06-2022, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

No respect at all! :-)

Andy Beyer picks him.

btw, do you know what Andy Beyer's favorite cookie is?

FIG Newtons.

classhandicapper · 05-06-2022, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

Andy Beyer picks him.

btw, do you know what Andy Beyer's favorite cookie is?

FIG Newtons.

He's 10.45-1 off shore. He was 16-1 early.

Simplification is 25.5-1. He was over 30-1 early.

Taiba is 7.25. He was over 12-1 early.

Almost all the horses I thought were overlays worth betting have come down sharply since the opening day of betting off shore.

Michael · 05-06-2022, 11:29 AM

White Abarrio's the Toni Kukoc of the group imo. (the 6th man)

Can Saffie win outside of Florida? I'm going to say no... the good part is, if anyone think's I'm wrong? I'm at least putting my money where my mouth is... so, come and get it.