Must read HRN: Gamblers say stop the cheating and lower the takeout or else

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Horse Racing is meant to be a thinking persons game who likes puzzles, not a button pushers game like a slot in a casino. If people believed they could win they wouldn't mind learning

Yes they would. We are asking a generation to put down their phones and concentrate on past performances that involve thought and processing. Now that is a 99/1 shot right there; they like things easy and they want it NOW. So the big question becomes how do we get to THEIR level in order to attract business as opposed to expecting them to come to OUR level. Because obviously the latter has not worked and will never work.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Zman179

Yes they would. We are asking a generation to put down their phones and concentrate on past performances that involve thought and processing. Now that is a 99/1 shot right there; they like things easy and they want it NOW. So the big question becomes how do we get to THEIR level in order to attract business as opposed to expecting them to come to OUR level. Because obviously the latter has not worked and will never work.

And yet, this "younger generation" was dealing quite nicely with the complexity of no limit holdem before online poker was shut down in this country...and they are now spending a lot of time concentrating on the statistics associated with Daily Fantasy Sports. I think you are wrong when you imply that this younger generation may be allergic to gambling games which involve "thought and processing".

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Horse Racing is meant to be a thinking persons game who likes puzzles, not a button pushers game like a slot in a casino. If people believed they could win they wouldn't mind learning.

Lower takeout means a lot. First of all there are more gamblers than ever, most of whom bet sports. They are the first people racing needs to convert and they won't try it at the current rates.

It all comes down to the best marketing ever created and it's free, and called word of mouth. If more people came to the track and won they would be telling other people. That almost never happens anymore.

Well, it is to people like us, anyway.

As ZMan said, the younger generation is basically a DONE-FOR-ME generation.

They really don't want the work.

To us, this game is like chess. There are move-like behaviors that "everyone" has to know in order to be remotely competitive.

(The fact that many such axioms have proven to be wrong, does not change this fact.)

I question that more than a tiny percent of 20-40 year olds are wanting to engage in something that is (potentially) a giant time suck.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Well, it is to people like us, anyway.

As ZMan said, the younger generation is basically a DONE-FOR-ME generation.

They really don't want the work.

To us, this game is like chess. There are move-like behaviors that "everyone" has to know in order to be remotely competitive.

(The fact that many such axioms have proven to be wrong, does not change this fact.)

I question that more than a tiny percent of 20-40 year olds are wanting to engage in something that is (potentially) a giant time suck.

They have to believe they can win. Right now I don't expect anyone to believe they can win paying retail takeout.

[Robert Fischer]

Takeout is a significant issue, but marketing seems to be the issue with the game.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Being a creator of Par Times (since 1991), I've studied the relationship between purses and times.

(Short version: It doesn't work well.)

_________________________
[/B]

I remember reading that insight from you a few years back (maybe it was in a Par Times I bought from you). I could see it in the data, but I lacked an explanation. You explained something I didn't grasp until I read that.

[classhandicapper]

For me, the work is the major issue.

If I could open the DRF, do some quick handicapping, and feel like I had a good chance to make a few plays that would lead to long term profits, I'd be way more enthusiastic. As it is, I keep a database, watch dozens of replays, take trip, bias, and race flow notes, and am often doing research and testing new things. By the time I'm ready to actually play, I'm barely in the mood. But for me, to have a pretty good chance of being profitable, I have to work really hard. It's not really worth it, but I enjoy the sport. Most others would just throw in the towel or pick something else to gamble on.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Takeout is a significant issue, but marketing seems to be the issue with the game.

Agree with MARKETING ...it sucks

But Take-Out is necessary to fund purses


What bothers me is that the big tracks CAN afford to lower take.....


Take Gulfstream.....

I'm guessing here , say they take 24% of the mutual betting to run the track...


On Saturday alone , the handle was 7.6 mill

24% 0f that is 1.8 mill

Total purses was @ 400,000+

So what do they do with the 1.4 mill left ?????

and this is for one day!!!


mike

[The_Turf_Monster]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Agree with MARKETING ...it sucks

But Take-Out is necessary to fund purses


What bothers me is that the big tracks CAN afford to lower take.....


Take Gulfstream.....

I'm guessing here , say they take 24% of the mutual betting to run the track...


On Saturday alone , the handle was 7.6 mill

24% 0f that is 1.8 mill

Total purses was @ 400,000+

So what do they do with the 1.4 mill left ?????

and this is for one day!!!


mike

I would be shocked to find out that GP added more than $230,000 out of that $7.6M into its purse account after all was said and done with all of the hands in the cookie jar

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Agree with MARKETING ...it sucks

So what do they do with the 1.4 mill left ?????

They pay to run the track.

Labor costs, maintenance, and a gazillion other things.

Oh, and they are entitled to make a profit, right?

[Jeff P]

Responding to many of the earlier posts in this thread:

I have two nephews. Both are in their early 20's.

Both will happily spend ungodly numbers of hrs studying player stats and injury reports in an effort to draft (their version of) an optimal fantasy sports lineup... MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, etc.

Both also happily spend similar hrs working out (again their version of) optimal strategies for Fortnite Tournaments. (One is actually pretty good at this although he hasn't cashed the racing equivalent of a pick6 yet.)

Neither has shown the slightest bit of interest in horse racing. One recently texted me an ESPN headline Bob Baffert-trained Thoroughbred Medina Spirit, the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner, dies after collapsing post-workout followed by the words "How can you defend Horse Racing as a actual sport?"

Points I'm trying to make here:

• 20-somethings are more than willing to devote hrs and critical thought to games they enjoy where they also think they have a realistic chance to make the occasional score. (No different than me in my '20's with racing.)

• Racing completely missed the boat on landing the current generation of 20-somethings. (Maybe the last two generations of 20-somethings.)

• Imo, takeout is a big part of the reason racing missed the boat on landing the last few generations of 20-somethings.

• In sports betting you can bet TeamA over TeamB and the vigorish is 4.50%.

• In racing when a field scratches down to a match race the takeout is still (what?) 14.95% to 18%+ PLUS BREAKAGE.

• A few years ago Emerald Downs decided to offer parimutuel wagering on head to head horse matchups. Imo, this experiment was short lived because of the takeout. But instead of making the takeout 4.50% like SideA vs. SideB wagering in sports betting track management and horsemen decided to make the takeout 16.10% PLUS BREAKAGE.

• There were times I recall looking at the parimutuel odds for the head to head horse matchup while the horses were facing up to the gate only to see the 'favorite' going off at 1-5 and the 'longshot' going off at 3-5. And yeah, the experiment was short lived.

• Beginning players might not know or care what the takeout rates actually are.

• What they DO care about and what drives beginning players away is that money returned by a series of winning bets over a lengthy period of time does not allow them to stay anywhere close to within shouting distance of break-even.

• Their bankroll disappears too fast. After visiting the ATM or reloading enough times they realize they are impossibly behind and decide to spend their money on something else - anything but horse racing.

• And NO. It isn't JUST the takeout.

• Racing has a DRUG INTEGRITY problem. I know it. You know it. And I think just about everybody connected to horse racing knows it.

• But when a family member with no connection to racing texts his crazy uncle with an ESPN headline about Medina Spirit: I'm guessing the general public knows it too.

• Racing also has a TOTE INTEGRITY problem. Imo, odds that change after the bell are always going to be seen by the public as an integrity problem.

• The REAL PROBLEM as I see it is that racing decision makers know about these problems too. But they collectively decided decades ago to PURPOSELY IGNORE the many problems mentioned in this thread as well as the hundreds of other threads both here at Paceadvantage and elsewhere.

Carry on,

-jp

.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

They pay to run the track.

Labor costs, maintenance, and a gazillion other things.

Oh, and they are entitled to make a profit, right?

Take Parx 12/15


Total Handle 2.8 mill

24% out = 665,000

Total Purses 230,000

There running their operation with 400,000


Whats so special about Gulfstream thats taking a mill more...

more fat asses in the cookie jar

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Agree with MARKETING ...it sucks

But Take-Out is necessary to fund purses


What bothers me is that the big tracks CAN afford to lower take.....


Take Gulfstream.....

I'm guessing here , say they take 24% of the mutual betting to run the track...


On Saturday alone , the handle was 7.6 mill

24% 0f that is 1.8 mill

Total purses was @ 400,000+

So what do they do with the 1.4 mill left ?????

and this is for one day!!!


mike

They only get 24% of the handle bet through them, either on track or their ADW. They get whatever they charge for their signal for all other wagers.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Take Parx 12/15


Total Handle 2.8 mill

24% out = 665,000

Total Purses 230,000

There running their operation with 400,000


Whats so special about Gulfstream thats taking a mill more...

more fat asses in the cookie jar

You can't really be this far away from understanding this? It has to be an act.

[classhandicapper]

I have two nephews. Both are in their early 20's.

Both will happily spend ungodly numbers of hrs studying player stats and injury reports in an effort to draft (their version of) an optimal fantasy sports lineup... MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, etc.

Both also happily spend similar hrs working out (again their version of) optimal strategies for Fortnite Tournaments. (One is actually pretty good at this although he hasn't cashed the racing equivalent of a pick6 yet.)

I think this is because a lot of people grow up playing baseball, basketball, football, hockey (and soccer too these days). They watch and play those those sports for pleasure and understand them first. So it's a quick transition to gamble on them.

Very few people are involved in horse racing or watch it just as a sport. It's more about the gambling first and then some people fall in love with the competition on the track and start looking for the next great horse or race to get excited about.

If you start from zero, you are less likely to put the hours into replays, notes, handicapping etc.. when you feel like you don't understand what's going on to begin with.

I watch a ton of basketball. It's an easy transition for me to make a bet once in awhile if I think I have a good insight. I know nothing about soccer. I'm not going to spend hours looking at soccer data when I know I'm clueless.