Flightline

[The Arbiter]

118 Beyer

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Agreed. Just noting that it was an interesting change of direction after two pretty decent years racing "full time" here. I wonder what factors played into it.

I was originally thinking that a possible Oaklawn target might have been the G2 Oaklawn Handicap for $1M on April 22nd, but it seemed having the first race at 2 turns and against older horses going a full 1 1/8 miles wouldn't be a likely path. The G3 Count Fleet the week before is turning back to 6f, which doesn't make a lot of sense either.

What race would you envision them pointing towards with an Oaklawn stop?

The Hronises have enjoyed Oaklawn when they've been here, for sure!

This is the part of the career arc where the horse is mentioned as "possible" for every upcoming major race but for one reason or another doesn't start.

The Razorback at Oaklawn is a near-perfect stretch out test: it's only 8.5 furlongs, it's a Grade 3, and it carries a ridiculous $600k purse.

The only problem is that the horse would only have 7 weeks to recover from his race yesterday. Add in the shipping across the Rockies and it's probably too much for even a great horse to handle.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is the part of the career arc where the horse is mentioned as "possible" for every upcoming major race but for one reason or another doesn't start.

The Razorback at Oaklawn is a near-perfect stretch out test: it's only 8.5 furlongs, it's a Grade 3, and it carries a ridiculous $600k purse.

The only problem is that the horse would only have 7 weeks to recover from his race yesterday. Add in the shipping across the Rockies and it's probably too much for even a great horse to handle.

YES - the Razorback would make some sense. That purse for a Grade 3 is enticing. Maybe too soon, especially given this horse's history, but a fairly sensible purse/grade/stretchout/increased competition combo. Nice thought.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is the part of the career arc where the horse is mentioned as "possible" for every upcoming major race but for one reason or another doesn't start.

The Razorback at Oaklawn is a near-perfect stretch out test: it's only 8.5 furlongs, it's a Grade 3, and it carries a ridiculous $600k purse.

The only problem is that the horse would only have 7 weeks to recover from his race yesterday. Add in the shipping across the Rockies and it's probably too much for even a great horse to handle.

Also, isn't the Razorback a handicap? They might put some unacceptable weight like 121 on him.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by The Arbiter

118 Beyer

The DRF got a quote from Beyer himself in their story. He's amazed, as is everyone.

What really got me is it actually doesn't look like Prat really asked him to run. He drew away himself after going 44 and change to the half in a 7 furlong race. He might be one of the best sprinters I've ever seen.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Also, isn't the Razorback a handicap? They might put some unacceptable weight like 121 on him.

Call PETA! Only 7 weeks rest and 121 lbs! And a plane trip on top of that? My God, what's wrong with these butchers?

I think we through the word great around too rasily. FL is fast.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by The Arbiter

118 Beyer

Beyer had the track getting about 4 points faster late in the card (I believe he also broke out the 1m races).

I'm not going to argue whether the track speeded up or not, but the race looked and felt better than a 118 to me. Not that it was a great Malibu field behind him, but the utter destruction makes me think that performance was qualitatively even better than a 118.

[Tom]

CJ tweeted about 140, first blush, so prett close

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Beyer had the track getting about 4 points faster late in the card (I believe he also broke out the 1m races).

I'm not going to argue whether the track speeded up or not, but the race looked and felt better than a 118 to me. Not that it was a great Malibu field behind him, but the utter destruction makes me think that performance was qualitatively even better than a 118.

Was his effort really much different than Charlatan's last year?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Was his effort really much different than Charlatan's last year?

I was a Charlatan fan and I think the answer is "yes".

I had flashbacks of Seattle Slew dusting White Rammer. Granted I was several drinks into the day by then, but that was impressive.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by Tom

Call PETA! Only 7 weeks rest and 121 lbs! And a plane trip on top of that? My God, what's wrong with these butchers?

I think we through the word great around too rasily. FL is fast.

May 31, one mile carrying 130 lbs. Win
June 13, 1 1/8 miles carrying 132 lbs. Win.
July 5, 1 3/16 miles carrying 134 lbs. Second by a nose!
July 24 1 1/4 miles with 134 lbs. Win.
August 21, 1 1/4 miles 136 lbs . 3rd beaten a length.
Sept. 18. 1 1/8 miles. 135 lbs. Win.
Oct. 2. 1 1/4 miles. 137 lbs. Win.

If you haven’t guessed, that was Forego in 1976. Starting Memorial Day 1976 and concluding Sept. 17, 1977, Forego carried 130 lbs. or more in 13 of 14 races. He won 9, finished second 3 times, third once and seventh once. That was a racehorse.

The question is, do we no longer have horses like that or are modern day trainers afraid to test their horses; content to win Hugh purses against mediocre competition carrying feather weights?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by mostpost

May 31, one mile carrying 130 lbs. Win
June 13, 1 1/8 miles carrying 132 lbs. Win.
July 5, 1 3/16 miles carrying 134 lbs. Second by a nose!
July 24 1 1/4 miles with 134 lbs. Win.
August 21, 1 1/4 miles 136 lbs . 3rd beaten a length.
Sept. 18. 1 1/8 miles. 135 lbs. Win.
Oct. 2. 1 1/4 miles. 137 lbs. Win.

If you haven’t guessed, that was Forego in 1976. Starting Memorial Day 1976 and concluding Sept. 17, 1977, Forego carried 130 lbs. or more in 13 of 14 races. He won 9, finished second 3 times, third once and seventh once. That was a racehorse.

The question is, do we no longer have horses like that or are modern day trainers afraid to test their horses; content to win Hugh purses against mediocre competition carrying feather weights?

Forego was a gelding.

The breeding industry wants to protect colts. Everything flows from that. You still see mares (Beholder) and geldings (Game on Dude) have long careers.

But since the breeding industry demands a light racing schedule for colts, that's how top trainers have learned to train. They COULD run more often- they do it in the Triple Crown! But in general, they use consistent methods.

[mostpost]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Forego was a gelding.

The breeding industry wants to protect colts. Everything flows from that. You still see mares (Beholder) and geldings (Game on Dude) have long careers.

But since the breeding industry demands a light racing schedule for colts, that's how top trainers have learned to train. They COULD run more often- they do it in the Triple Crown! But in general, they use consistent methods.

A valid point. But is there any proof that more racing would impact breeding negatively? Bold Ruler raced 33 times and carried high weights. Not only was he perhaps the best sire of all time, but his progeny-male progeny-were also excellent sires.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by taxicab

The Met Mile is logical.

Maybe a race at Santa Anita or Churchill in between (eg "April")


3 fastballs down the middle, and 3 homeruns so far for Flightline.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by mostpost

A valid point. But is there any proof that more racing would impact breeding negatively? Bold Ruler raced 33 times and carried high weights. Not only was he perhaps the best sire of all time, but his progeny-male progeny-were also excellent sires.

More racing isn't going to impact breeding at all (except for rare cases involving catastrophic injuries). But more racing does mean more opportunities for losses or even a complete tailing off of form. In other words, there comes a point where the likelihood that you are going increase a horse's stud fees with more racing is low and the possibility that you are going to decrease them is higher. And then add to that (1) the possibility of a catastrophic injury and (2) the cost, in the case of extending careers, of missing a breeding season, and you get the modern philosophy of doing just enough to establish a horse's breeding value and then retiring.

The real difference between now and the halcyon days of old is (a) who owns breeding operations- corporations and partnerships vs. individuals, and (b) the separation of breeding and racing operations through sales. The reason why a lot of colts had long careers back in the old days is because they were owned by rich people who were going to breed them themselves at their own farm when they finished racing, so they weren't giving up a ton in stud fees (or at least did not perceive it that way).

In many ways, I think the big bang of modern racing economics was Secretariat's syndication deal. Secretariat, to be clear, is NOT an example of a modern racehorse- he raced 12 times as a 3 year old, including in spots where he could have gotten beat, and DID get beat three times. But the deal meant that he wouldn't race as a 4 year old (as previous uninjured top horses had), and would never carry 130 pounds (as was standard for top horses in that era). In other words, though not as restrictive as a modern arrangement, it set the precedent that if you had a well bred big stakes winner, you could cash a huge check as long as you played ball with what the breeding industry wanted.

And what the breeding industry has wanted has gotten stricter and stricter since then.

And as I said, the tell that this is just about breeding, and not about the soundness of horses, is that they keep top mares and geldings going. Bob Baffert could run Game on Dude in races he might lose, because it wasn't going to do anything to his stud fee- running Justify in a race he might lose, on the other hand, was off the table, so they concocted an injury and rushed him off to stud.