Time for Contraction

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by proximity

in the suffolk situation those people can get similar jobs at wynn that will be year round and most likely pay better.

in most of these situations horsemen never seem to want to work together with management to make the product more competitive with other forms of gambling (26% exactas?) and that is why there is animosity from players who see the potential that this form of gambling has.

I understand the animosity, it's simple tho, don't give them your money. They will either change or shut down on they're own.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

I understand the animosity, it's simple tho, don't give them your money. They will either change or shut down on they're own.

Ahh...so THAT'S what it is. You "understand the animosity"...but you don't want us to express it. Okay...

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Ahh...so THAT'S what it is. You "understand the animosity"...but you don't want us to express it. Okay...

I'll say it for the third or fourth time, I have a problem with the way you want things done.

[dirty moose]

It's you're way or the highway apparently.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

I'll say it for the third or fourth time, I have a problem with the way you want things done.

The way some posters on here want it done is to insinuate who should close and who should stay open, as if it really works that way. The free market will cause how it will actually go down. The foal count will also go down, and the lesser horses will be culled from that lot if they have no place to run, and the leftover tracks will still have the short fields we have today.

[thespaah]

Unfortunately, a contraction in the business is inevitable.
The number on issue is a fractured business model. Individual state racing jurisdictions compete against one another when they should be working together.
Poor marketing.
Competition for the gambling dollar is at a fever pitch.
Too many tracks in close geographic proximity running simultaneously, competing for similar racing stock..
Tracks running races on top of each other.
An apparent blindness on the part of track managements who ignore present technology which permits bettors to wager several tracks.
The fact that racetrack managements refuse to acknowledge the fact that in order to get people to come to the track, they have to think outside the box.
"We're here. Come to the track" doesn't cut it anymore.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

...Think about the people that have nothing to do with the actual racing. The person who sells the programs, the food, the poor guy that's gonna clean the bathroom, the security, the cashiers. You guys wanna put all these people out of work so you can make a few more bucks on your exacta, makes you no better than the horsemen.

On the contrary, the few track management teams and horsemen's groups who have figured out how to give the horseplayer a better paying exacta are discovering that we horseplayers will line up to put money in their pools.

Kentucky Downs (posted about above) would be one example.

Another example would be the recently concluded 2014 meets at Del Mar and Saratoga.

The Blood-Horse reported that 2014 all sources handle at Saratoga was down 2.6% vs. the prior year:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...andle-declines

The Blood-Horse also reported that 2014 average daily handle at Del Mar was down 7.3% vs. the prior year:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...odHorse.com%29

Not written about by any reporters (yet) are some of the differences in handle for specific pools comparing Del Mar vs. Saratoga.

I compliled the following handle per race numbers using the charts:

                   DMR        SAR  
---------------------------------
WPS            363,890    429,874
EXOTICS        730,775    938,665
TOT HANDLE   1,094,665  1,368,539
EXA           195,0755    345,629
DD              52,427    109,674
FIELD SIZE        8.80       7.88

A few bullet points:

WPS --
Both tracks have approximate level takeout rates. Del Mar WPS takeout is 15.43%. Saratoga WPS takeout is 16.00% but uses more favorable breakage.

DMR handled 0.8465 as much as SAR. (If you are going to compare DMR vs. SAR use that as your benchmark.)


TOTAL HANDLE --
DMR handled 0.7999 as much as SAR.


2 HORSE BETS (EXA and DD) --

EXA --
DMR exacta takeout is 22.68%
SAR exacta takeout is 18.50%

If you look at EXA pool per race, DMR handled just 0.5644 as much as SAR. That number is telling when you compare it to the benchmark (0.8465) and consider the differential in takeout rates.


DD --
DMR rake was 20.00%. We wrote about the "logic" the CHRB used to raise the double takeout in southern California from 18.00% at Santa Anita to 20.00% at Del Mar on the HANA Blog here and here .

SAR DD rake was 18.50%.

If you look at DD pool per race, DMR handled just 0.478 as much as SAR. That number is appalling if you compare it to the benchmark. (0.8465)


Field Size --
Much of this flies in the face of the industry's field size narrative. Many in the industry will tell reporters that recent handle woes are "all" field size related. (Churchill Downs and Arlington earlier this year both come to mind. Neither track would admit on the record that takeout rates impact handle.)

DMR field size was 8.80 runners per race.

SAR field size was 7.88 runners per race.

Yet with almost a full horse per race smaller field size: Saratoga had the better meet this summer - being down only 2.6% vs. the prior year compared to Del Mar being down 7.3% vs. the prior year.

Takeout on two horse bets wasn't the only reason, but speaking as a horseplayer who bets a considerable amount of money, I made an extra effort this past summer to give Saratoga more of my business than Del Mar.

I did that BECAUSE of the differential in takeout.

The way I see it, Saratoga was the major track offering horseplayers the better deal value-wise in the EXA and DD pools this past summer.

The trend-line in the handle numbers between the two tracks suggests I might not be the only horseplayer who saw it that this way.




-jp

.

[wisconsin]

I will say this again, have said it before, the Atlantic coast could have a monster circuit, if the tracks could work out 6-week meets. Hell, the tracks that are "dark" will make more on simo handle than live handle.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

I'll say it for the third or fourth time, I have a problem with the way you want things done.

You have no IDEA about how I want things done...you just THINK you do. What you've said in this thread makes no sense at all. "Let the tracks close on their own", you say...as if that's not what's happening now. Isn't Suffolk closing on its own? Did I, or anybody else, put them out of business?

Does it make any difference if I have animosity for a track or not? Can my "animosity" bring about any negative change...or cause anybody to lose their job?

It's a cruel world, friend...and no job is guaranteed. That's NATURE'S law...the strong survive, and the weak lick their wounds on the sidelines. It wasn't I who made the rules...

[burnsy]

Its not just greed or animosity. This is just economic reality. Supply and demand. People that don't want to face it, blame the folks that point out the facts. I mean, in all reality this would have happened sooner without the casinos. Without that money, there would be less owners, less horses and so on. Even look at a major track like Churchill, I looked at the card the first Friday night and didn't know whether to laugh or cry. Are you kidding me?

This game is not dying but the demand has waned. Its a watered down product because some tracks are artificially afloat with casino money and others are just so dumb they shot their own ass. On this trajectory the 10 track theory is probably close to accurate. Personally, I don't understand how the smaller tracks keep going as it is. Who is betting>Who is going>Who cares? Even the big tracks have resorted to "festival" big day racing. Any other day horse racing can't get a sniff. Yes, jobs will be lost......Yes, this sucks....No, you can't blame any of us, we play the game. You can't point fingers at people that don't play, they could give a crap. Times change, in a way you can't blame anyone. But if you must assign blame. Try looking at how these tracks have conducted themselves for the last 20 years when all of this was becoming apparent. Some of these tracks are still playing "cut throat"....if that doesn't work.....screw the customer...when they notice....act like nothing is happening. Things will get better???????

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

The way some posters on here want it done is to insinuate who should close and who should stay open, as if it really works that way. The free market will cause how it will actually go down. The foal count will also go down, and the lesser horses will be culled from that lot if they have no place to run, and the leftover tracks will still have the short fields we have today.

There's been no free market for over 20 years. I started this post knowing it would hit a raw nerve with those closely aligned with their home-track. You think I'm not aware that it's like "family" in most smaller market tracks? I've been waiting patiently for things to sort themselves out "naturally" for years, but it just keeps getting worse and worse. Please excuse my bluntness in my posts, but know this........without the bettor, there is no horse racing and the owners can go collect their "ribbons" when they win. It's the BETTOR that makes this game, and if we don't take control of the game NOW, it won't exist for anyone.......

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

There's been no free market for over 20 years. I started this post knowing it would hit a raw nerve with those closely aligned with their home-track. You think I'm not aware that it's like "family" in most smaller market tracks? I've been waiting patiently for things to sort themselves out "naturally" for years, but it just keeps getting worse and worse. Please excuse my bluntness in my posts, but know this........without the bettor, there is no horse racing and the owners can go collect their "ribbons" when they win. It's the BETTOR that makes this game, and if we don't take control of the game NOW, it won't exist for anyone.......

I want to apologize to you, I didn't mean to curse at you. I live here in NY and don't really care for the product from a betting standpoint. I play Finger Lakes way more than I do NYRA. So I'm not aligned with any tracks.

You say without the bettor there is no horse racing, 100% right. So don't spend your money at any of the tracks you don't like. You came across very personal. Put your self in a race track employees shoes.

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You have no IDEA about how I want things done...you just THINK you do. What you've said in this thread makes no sense at all. "Let the tracks close on their own", you say...as if that's not what's happening now. Isn't Suffolk closing on its own? Did I, or anybody else, put them out of business?

Does it make any difference if I have animosity for a track or not? Can my "animosity" bring about any negative change...or cause anybody to lose their job?

It's a cruel world, friend...and no job is guaranteed. That's NATURE'S law...the strong survive, and the weak lick their wounds on the sidelines. It wasn't I who made the rules...

Could you be a little more cynical for us? Why don't you TELL us how you'd like things done? Please enlighten us all.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

There's been no free market for over 20 years. I started this post knowing it would hit a raw nerve with those closely aligned with their home-track. You think I'm not aware that it's like "family" in most smaller market tracks? I've been waiting patiently for things to sort themselves out "naturally" for years, but it just keeps getting worse and worse. Please excuse my bluntness in my posts, but know this........without the bettor, there is no horse racing and the owners can go collect their "ribbons" when they win. It's the BETTOR that makes this game, and if we don't take control of the game NOW, it won't exist for anyone.......

Yes, the BETTOR makes the game...but that doesn't mean that the game is his to control. The game belongs to the horsemen and the track owners...and they run it as they see fit. We horseplayers sometimes call this "our game"...but we are confused on this issue. It doesn't BELONG to us, and we don't even have a voice in the way that it's been run.

The horsemen and the track owners have made all the decisions...and now they must live with them. THEY are the ones who have wrecked this game...and the blame for its condition belongs squarely on their shoulders. The horseplayer in an outsider...and an unwelcomed one at that. How can an unwelcomed outsider ever take control of anything?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

Could you be a little more cynical for us? Why don't you TELL us how you'd like things done? Please enlighten us all.

No...I don't think I'll do that. I think I'll just sit back and read the opinions of geniuses like you.