having a terrible year, thinking of giving it up

[riskman]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I strongly disagree with the idea that more technology is the answer to making profits, at least for the little minnows that most horseplayers are. You spend a lot of time learning somebody else's tool, developing your own, or tweaking models to arrive at....something that will not be as good as the whales' approach.

The game has changed where the pools are more efficient to the point it's very difficult to overcome the takeout. I would describe myself as a comprehensive handicapper, following the methods laid out by Davidowitz and Beyer, but that no longer works - at least for me. We now have to have the specialized or "zag" or "artful" approach to making a profit, with discipline being the biggest factor on winning or losing. If you can limit your technology to identifying the niche plays, then it can help - but for most players, it's tough to integrate that.

Discipline is not something I can easily overcome. When simulcasting came out, it was a big hit to the bankroll to play all the prime opportunities. At first I thought, "how sweet" to be able to use the PPs for all the tracks in the Form. When online contests became the thing, it was very difficult for me to pass a race without an action bet - since I had to handicap them all anyway.

The latest challenge is the decline in the quality of the product, which I doubt will improve over the years ahead. We're looking at an economy in decline, less discretionary money for owners and players to toss in the kitty, and contraction will continue. Like Thask pointed out, weekday racing is awful, and now I skip Sundays too. Saturdays I hope to find three or four bets.

I've given up sports betting and was never into the casino games or poker, but racing is definitely getting tougher to justify the effort. I've really enjoyed the last 37 years to so playing the ponies, but like the OP it's been a grind into the dust for me too.

A very honest appraisal of the current status of the game. Personally, I keep on hoping that something new will devolpe that will change the direction of the game . The future does not look good at the present time.

[Parkview_Pirate]

I don't want to be all doom and gloom, but the current model for racing is pretty broken in most countries. If the sport contracts and gets more localized, you'll see racing survive as entertainment in a few markets, with a look more like in South America (geldings with 100+ starts running for 2K purses) or the racing like on the back roads of Louisiana with quarter horses.

Racing will always be around, but I'm just not sure how large the major circuits will remain. I think we're past peak casinos, so that stream of purse money will be shrinking.

When I was living out west a few years ago I really enjoyed some of the fair circuit racing in Oregon with the small and lively crowds, but even those horses were being shipped between venues and I think it'll be just too expensive to do that in the future. I see centralized venues with year round, limited days, as the future.

Personally, my favorite circuit is Hong Kong - racing two days per week at two different tracks, and a very local group of horses with minimum turnover. Everyone gets a break in the hottest part of the summer for a couple of months. They announce retirements of each horse a couple of times per month. They race for insane amounts of money right now, but that will probably be shrinking as well, and they'll need to adapt. Australia and Japan will need to change their model IMHO, and reduce the shipping between tracks as well.

And now, back to 'capping the Derby.

[RainMan]

Too many wagering choices has been my downfall. I was a fairly consistent winner back in the 80's and 90's when the menu consisted of an early DD, $5 exactas, a couple of tris and a Pick 6. Even though I have the patience of Job my biggest challenge is deciding which bets to make. When I cut my teeth at the track it was laid out for you - now I spent much more time trying to figure out a wagering game plan than I do handicapping. As examples I may start off with a Pick 3 and then find a single on the back end and turn it in to a losing Pick 4 or start out with a midrange tri and end up with a super. Have always tried to go against the grain and favor pools that contained the most "dumb" money. For instance when tracks depended on attendance, the casual racegoer overwhelmingly boxed the 3 program picks in exactas or tris if they had a program at all. But in the modern era the live attendance is no longer the competition. Will never give it up but have scaled back in an attempt to survive and like most depend on a few occasional decent hits to show a profit.

[Aerocraft67]

You can try to beat the game with tricky propositions. But even if you're playing 18-1 wagers going off at 20-1 in aggregate, inevitable droughts are tough to absorb.

Droughts also complicate evaluation of your game. Are you performing badly or just enduring normal negative variance? Can you afford to wager more to find out?

Could that be your problem? I think it is for me. I'm trying to graduate from the exacta to the trifecta and superfecta. I'm having trouble managing wager spread to get sufficient hit rate and payoff to sustain bankroll between scores.

Alternatively, betting a lot to win a little on probable outcomes with short prices can't be any easier. Good luck beating the whales at that game, right?

[2low]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________


I've had a quite a few good years and believed I could be profitable betting racing

my confidence is now shaken

this year, it seems like everything I do is wrong

seems like every horse I bet fades badly in the stretch - I should post my picks so my pick can be eliminated_________________)~:\

I always did much better betting sports, but I liked racing a lot more

I don't know what the reason for this is, probably just a statistical anomaly

maybe I'll just paper bet for a while to try to figure out what's going on



.

Not sure anybody will remember me, I used to hang around a bit. I've been off the past several years building models for sports betting, and have recently turned my attention back to the horses. Once again, I feel like I'm on to something

Anyway, whether it is sports or horses, one thing has been very consistent. With a very good, winning, profitable model comes the physical proof that losing streaks sometimes will be far, far, far longer and much more soul sucking than anybody could possibly imagine without seeing the data for themselves. And that's in sports betting. Horses are worse! But, if you are doing the math right and you keep doing the math right, the results show up eventually.

[PaceAdvantage]

Excellent point!

Which is why if you're underfunded, you're absolutely screwed. And may give up on a profitable method before it's had a chance to show itself in the real world.

[2low]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Excellent point!

Which is why if you're underfunded, you're absolutely screwed. And may give up on a profitable method before it's had a chance to show itself in the real world.

Yep, and the opposite can also be true. I wonder how many formerly profitable sports bettors/poker players started life with the horseshoe firmly planted. Those things fall out. Then you lose your insides.

[lefty359]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Excellent point!

Which is why if you're underfunded, you're absolutely screwed. And may give up on a profitable method before it's had a chance to show itself in the real world.

Right. If you're underfunded you can turn a winning method into a loser.
Gambler's Ruin.

I 've resorted to betting 1% of BR. Takes the stress away.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Right. If you're underfunded you can turn a winning method into a loser.
Gambler's Ruin.

I 've resorted to betting 1% of BR. Takes the stress away.

I have done this for a few years. Very mechanical...which helps to remove the Emotion factor from the process.

[Mdnspecialist]

I just had my $12 exacta eliminated in a DQ at Laurel. I was all in on a 3/1,2 exacta. 3 came out on the backstretch. 3 was much the best but the jockey screwed up. Not going to chase after that. I'm done for the day.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Mdnspecialist

I just had my $12 exacta eliminated in a DQ at Laurel. I was all in on a 3/1,2 exacta. 3 came out on the backstretch. 3 was much the best but the jockey screwed up. Not going to chase after that. I'm done for the day.

Suggestion. If that bothers you to such an extent, well, you probably should not bet until you have confidence in what you are doing.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by lefty359

Right. If you're underfunded you can turn a winning method into a loser.
Gambler's Ruin.

I 've resorted to betting 1% of BR. Takes the stress away.

I've resorted to 0% and there is no stress at all!

If you are funded enough to ride out the long run, why would you bother with this stupid game, go out and spend the money, have fun.

[lefty359]

TOM, Racing is my fun!

[ThreeHorseEntry]

The biggest problem in this game is the money that is taken out of the pools leaves you so far behind from the start.

In racing, you may have between 15-25% taken out that you have to overcome to break even. Compare that to other games such as the stock market where even if you don't know anything you should make a little money (due to the upward drift over a long period of time) and there is no comparison as to which is the better game.

The elimination of brokerage fees on stock purchases has made stock trading at least a fair game if not a favorable game.

If you have the ability to make a little money at racing, you can likely translate that into making a lot of money in the stock market.

Spend your time accordingly.

[Mdnspecialist]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Suggestion. If that bothers you to such an extent, well, you probably should not bet until you have confidence in what you are doing.

Confidence has nothing to do with it. A days profit can be determined by just one bet. That was my one bet for the day. $12 was a gift. No reason to continue for the day. This is something I didn't do years ago. Now, I can walk away after a big win, DQ or string of losses. Not going to make bad decisions and chase. We've all been there, don't act like you haven't.