Rich Strike?

[lured]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

I heard on one of the podcasts that it was a 101. Par on the DRF was 103. It seems a bit high with a time of 202.61.

How were the times of other races yesterday at Churchill? Were they abnormally slow from the past stakes races on Derby day? If so, that could have something to do with it. The track went from good to fast I believe during the day. So that means it could've been on the low end of a fast track.

Only one horse stayed within 4 spots of his position during the race and that was Smile Happy. That to me indicates a slower track. Also tells me that Smile Happy also ran pretty decent race and might be a good bet to win or place in his next race.

[Inner Dirt]

That 21 3/5 1st quarter would have fried anyone close to the lead even if they were running downhill on cement, that can lead to slow final times when half the field is waddling home like 3200 claimers running 1- 9/16. Anyone who went to the old LA County Fair might remember those races. If you give him credit for running an extra 3 lengths from post #21 doesn't that give Rich Strike a 107 Beyer? I wonder if there was a real bettor who laid good win money on Rich Strike? Anyone hear any stories?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Brisk Urging

Rich Strike was 81-1 going into the gate, wins at 80-1. They knew.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

That 21 3/5 1st quarter would have fried anyone close to the lead even if they were running downhill on cement, that can lead to slow final times when half the field is waddling home like 3200 claimers running 1- 9/16. Anyone who went to the old LA County Fair might remember those races. If you give him credit for running an extra 3 lengths from post #21 doesn't that give Rich Strike a 107 Beyer? I wonder if there was a real bettor who laid good win money on Rich Strike? Anyone hear any stories?

Wouldn't that make Beyers even more inaccurate? I mean, the fact that your final position in a race automatically gives you a higher beyer than horses that finish behind you and lower than any that finish ahead of you, how can you take their post position into consideration? It would mean that only the winner could be adjusted for an outside post position.

[Vinnie]

An Unbelievable have to see to believe kind of race. Congratulations to the horse and his connections! I would have never predicted such an incredible amount of pace in the race. My wife didn't handicap the race, but, when she saw Rich Strike out there on the track pre-post time she exclaimed "that's my horse, you should put something on him". WOW!!

I couldn't believe it when he was first to hit the wire. Awesome stuff!!

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

It's been a while since we used to argue at Fairmount, but I'll take the other side of some of this, 'cause that's what I do:



Probably not, but DRF indicates Rich Strike is heading to Pimlico. In theory, unless you know something we don't, the Triple Crown is still alive.



Probably a good idea. One Derby winner has done it, but the lack of gauging the horse's class is impossible after two starts. Beyer pointed out "not enough base", and I won't argue. But I think Rich Strike's win indicates a weak field too, as opposed to the fawning going on last week about how this was a superior crop. Track condition played a part too - track was tiring.



Probably true, though modern pharmacy knows no bounds. Horses have wildly different psyiologies than humans, but some trainers can pull off the non-racing prep - it's just much more rare that what we consider "normal".



Never can be a long time. With the purse structures in the ME and Japan, I think it's only a matter of time before a good foreign running horse comes over and wins the Derby. Maybe not in my lifetime though, which is sort of a year-to-year proposition.

Would agree that "the streak" against the UAE Derby horses is a valid "bet against" until it happens though. 'Course, you won't get to brag on catching that first UAE-KY Derby winner....(it's all about the bragging....)



Epicenter ran huge yesterday. So huge, I think he'll be a great bounce candidate and will fade him at Pimlico. But at this moment in time, he appears to be the cream of the crop.



Yes, yes they do. Especially for those that hauled in the $741K Super High Five.

A couple of comments! It takes a talented, gifted horse to win the Triple Crown. None have done it since 1946 with Assault. That is a long time and racing has changed dramatically since then. Many many better horses than Rich Strike have won the Derby and failed, some miserably. He has a much better chance of running out of the super than he does of winning the Preakness. In theory, yes, in reality, no of being a Triple Crown champion.

I thought the crop was bad, possibly really bad. Can't see how someone could think this is a quality group.

Never is a long time! Many have gone broke betting against streaks, not only in horse racing, but at the casino and sports betting. Think of the teams that took forever to win a championship. Cubs, Red Sox, Chiefs, our St. Louis Blues. Betting them every year to win cost you a fortune and you still came out down when they finally did. Of course, if you were betting the Cubs starting in the 1930's you died long before they won.

If Epicenter runs he won't bounce. Can you give me a list of very good Derby horses that ran great and then flopped in the Preakness. I can't think of any. More often than not they hold their form and repeat with a great effort. I worry your list is going to contain several average horses, like say Orb, Always Dreaming, and Super Saver plus a bunch that ran second that weren't all that great.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by pandy

Oxbow was right on the pace in that 2013 Derby. That was a good score for me in the Preakness, Oxbow fit the system play form my Pace Handicapping Longshots book.

But Epicenter and Zandon had no excuses. They ran well, I personally don't think they ran great. If Chad Brown could have drawn it up he would have given Zandon the exact trip that he had. He simply didn't have a strong enough closing kick off a complete pace meltdown.

The horse that ran well on the pace was Zozos. That horse could be a very tough sprinter/miler if they keep him out of these longer races.

Exactly! Zandon stayed two lengths behind Epicenter on the rail the entire way until the stretch. He had a dream trip. I thought the same about Zozos. While neither had an excuse, they just got unlucky that some cheap, inferior horse ran the race of his life that he will never duplicate.

[mlyles1]

Don’t mess with Rich Strike

[BIG49010]

Anyone thinking that the smartest thing these guys could do is take some of their hard earned cash, and buy a rabbit for the Preakness and Belmont?

[Ahorsewithnoname]

Anybody know if this horse was available for a future bet?
If not a late entrie is a perfect way to take down the whole pool.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Ahorsewithnoname

Anybody know if this horse was available for a future bet?
If not a late entrie is a perfect way to take down the whole pool.

Aren't all horses not given an individual betting interest covered in a field bet?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Ahorsewithnoname

Anybody know if this horse was available for a future bet?
If not a late entrie is a perfect way to take down the whole pool.

Yes, he was #24 The Mutuel Field in all five pools.

[rrpic6]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Melt-down? More traffic than the Los Angeles freeway at rush hour? That's like sending the bat signal to Sonny Leon. The guy is uncanny at timing a move, sees into the future as a race develops, possesses more guts than Evel Knievel, and finishes like Tiger Woods with a 4th round lead. Plus, Mahoning's flat turns have imbued him with a singular knack for saving ground and finding seams.

Beyond that, Leon, has an almost eerie ability to relax his mount and, regardless of running style, somehow convince a horse to do his will. I have yet to watch the replay, but would bet my life that Leon's spacing, at every point in the race, was impeccable as pertained to the flow.

In following Mvr almost religiously since that track's inception, I have learned one thing for certain: Sonny Leon is a sorcerer.

Such a Magical day for Sonny! So glad my girl DVR'd the race as we were stuck in traffic on the way to see Journey in Cleveland last night as the Derby was running. I knew something was up as my phone and twitter were blowing up at 7 o'clock. Shame on me for not even betting a loose deuce on Reed/Leon. I did here quite a few of the Faithful at MVR did have some small WPS wagers on the miracle horse.

RR

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Agree...other then the pace up front, the jockey on his back was the other reason he won...that was a fantastic ride especially from the top of the stretch on....sure, things broke his way with almost cinematic precision, but one wrong move by Leon and that horse would have been stopped cold and done...

FLAWLESS VICTORY!

When historians in the future talk about the greatest ride in Kentucky Derby history, this ride by Sonny Leon will be right up near the top of the list if not the very best ride ever.
This is why this is such a great sport.

[Katewerk]

Originally Posted by pandy

We've seen this many times, a horse dropped in for a tag too soon. I guess Rich Strike didn't train well on dirt, but I can't understand why you would race a Calumet bred horse that has a good dirt pedigree on turf once, and then immediately put the horse in for $30,000. It doesn't make sense. After the horse broke his maiden by 17 lengths, they had to know right away that they made a mistake. Even if he never wins another GR1, he was a bargain claim.

Have you seen a replay of that claiming race? It's pretty good, too.