Florida Derby

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

You cannot compare an average of all chalks to one race where none of the still developing participants have run the distance and most have not run the surface. Is there some chaos? Certainly. Is it unraveling the chalks. I'd say, in most cases, no. The fact the public is hitting one in four in your example is mildly impressive considering the variables. It's certainly not the same as betting the in form horse for course and distance at Gulfstream.

All this made sense until I looked up the totals for all Ky derbies.
Favorites won 51/146. So prior to expanding the fields, derby favs were winning at a 40% clip.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

All this made sense until I looked up the totals for all Ky derbies.
Favorites won 51/146. So prior to expanding the fields, derby favs were winning at a 40% clip.

A few additional things to consider:
1. A horse will rarely scratch out of the Derby for track condition unlike most other races, particularly turf to slop.
2. The first 21 Derbies were 10F.
3. Eleven Preakness renewals were run before the Derby prior to establishment of the Triple Crown.
4. In 11 of the years you selected, there were 16 or fewer starters in the Derby.
5. Prior to the years you selected, there were many fields with 16 or more starters including a record 23 starters in 1974.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Michael

After the race I was kind of wondering what in the world happened to Classic Causway. Apparently his wheels just fell off... and he's perfectly healthy. I assume they're definately headed towards the derby... I think I'm going to cross off Classic Causway, the Saffie horse, and Charge it for the derby.

"Lynch said he found nothing physically wrong in a routine check of Classic Causeway about 12 hours after Saturday’s race. With jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, the two-time Tampa Bay Downs graded-stakes winner set an honest early pace with fractions of 23.67 and 47.24 seconds. Then he regressed to finish 21 1/4 lengths up the track from White Abarrio.

“Everybody’s got a plan until they get punched in the nose,” Lynch said. “Isn’t that what Mike Tyson said? The good news is we’re not looking at anything we can point the finger at. He scoped clean, and he’s come back good.”


per https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...c_Causeway_123

I’m not certain, but I think a small case can be made that speed on the inside was not ideal at GP Saturday. If so, the last thing you wanted to do was show speed on the rail in a fast pace. He was so bad though, it’s hard to totally toss the race. If he found a softer spot and ran well next time I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’d want no part of him in the Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’m not certain, but I think a small case can be made that speed on the inside was not ideal at GP Saturday. If so, the last thing you wanted to do was show speed on the rail in a fast pace. He was so bad though, it’s hard to totally toss the race. If he found a softer spot and ran well next time I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’d want no part of him in the Derby.

Have you ever seen a track you thought was fair?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Have you ever seen a track you thought was fair?

Which decade?

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

It didn't seem so, I checked back at the history of the race and found that field size grew after 1980.
I did a count of favorites from 1979 to the present and found that 10/42 favorites won over that period for 24%. I guess that's not terrible. It isn't up to average either. If you would expect the favorite to win 33% of the time, then it's 28% shy of averages. That's only 4 favorites shy of average. 4 horses that did not go into the books as derby winners.

You probably noted in doing your count that 6 of those 10 winning favorites came in the last 10 years. The move to the points system starting with the 2013 road to the Derby changed the makeup of the field - we lost the sprint types who earned their way to the Derby in shorter races with big purses. That's a lot of potential "E" types that have gone missing and affect the way the race is run. I'd surmise that the overall winning percentage for favorites will continue its upward trend. (Not that I want it to.)

[Michael]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’m not certain, but I think a small case can be made that speed on the inside was not ideal at GP Saturday. If so, the last thing you wanted to do was show speed on the rail in a fast pace. He was so bad though, it’s hard to totally toss the race. If he found a softer spot and ran well next time I wouldn’t be shocked, but I’d want no part of him in the Derby.

Even if you're right about the rail... He's more than capable of going 47:2 to the half without dropping the anchor. My tin foil hat was telling me "maybe Irad was instructed to take him 4 furlongs and call it a day." (bc he's already in the derby gate)

Then after re-watching the race... there's just no way. You can visually see Irad tighten the reins after charge it passed him. I think the horse just quit. Guess we'll see in a month.