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Old 01-06-2022, 03:33 PM   #16
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by dnlgfnk View Post
Disagree, Thask. Andy talked a good trip handicapping game, but I never really saw him apply anything more than generalities to the trip approach. I'm exaggerating by saying the figs are his raison d' etre, but Big Coach was their desired effect.

I don't mean I disregard a top fig outright, even an outrun figure. I'm taking in GP casually today, gearing up for the weekend. Within the parameters of public percentages as I mentioned above, I compared my visual impressions of Macedonian (62-70 bris) and Merzaz (83) in the second race, hoping to downgrade the former. If you access their last race, my notes read:

Macedonian had easy outside speed, was passed by winner, gave ground 2T/3T pushing, 3ES weakened.

Merzaz 2/3 FT, restrained a few strides rounding, 3E backstretch, zoomed to stalk later B, 4T, bolted widest ES.

The latter clearly impressed, while Macedonian folded to a rival still under a hold, analagous to a driver pressing the accelerator losing ground to a car maintaining position in neutral. I was mildly concerned about the layoff- one doesn't improve upon Pletcher- and the subsequent drop, but the work on 11/21 was sufficient.

Much of the above involved watching the jockey's hands, etc. I first got the idea that this was significant when Beyer's "Charlie" was able to detect race fixing at Saratoga in '74 when applying his skills.
I can't speak with any authority about Beyer's handicapping methods, because I know practically nothing about what the man really does when he handicaps. Yes, he has written books...but the written word is severely limited when it is asked to convey the real prowess that a man brings to his craft. There are people out there who call Beyer a "speed handicapper"...when his books reveal him to be as close to a "comprehensive handicapper" as a horseplayer can effectively get. He compiles and analyzes speed figures...he analyzes pace scenarios...he gathers copious trainer stats...he deciphers track surface irregularities...and he also obsesses about the trips of the individual horses. That's about as complete a game as a horseplayer can possibly play, IMO.

You seem obsessed with "Charlie"...and you keep referring to him in your handicapping posts. Has it ever occurred to you that Beyer might have exaggerated Charlie's success at the windows, just to make a point? Authors do that sometimes, you know...they call it "artistic license". In any case...I have rubbed shoulders with several "trip handicappers" in my day...and, although they all talked a "good game"...none of them was successful enough to entice me to put "trips" on the handicapping pedestal that some place it on. When it comes to the "mystical" parts of handicapping...practicality seldom catches up to the theory of the topic. In my opinion, at least.

Last edited by thaskalos; 01-06-2022 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 01-06-2022, 04:47 PM   #17
dnlgfnk
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I can't speak with any authority about Beyer's handicapping methods, because I know practically nothing about what the man really does when he handicaps. Yes, he has written books...but the written word is severely limited when it is asked to convey the real prowess that a man brings to his craft. There are people out there who call Beyer a "speed handicapper"...when his books reveal him to be as close to a "comprehensive handicapper" as a horseplayer can effectively get. He compiles and analyzes speed figures...he analyzes pace scenarios...he gathers copious trainer stats...he deciphers track surface irregularities...and he also obsesses about the trips of the individual horses. That's about as complete a game as a horseplayer can possibly play, IMO.

You seem obsessed with "Charlie"...and you keep referring to him in your handicapping posts. Has it ever occurred to you that Beyer might have exaggerated Charlie's success at the windows, just to make a point? Authors do that sometimes, you know...they call it "artistic license". In any case...I have rubbed shoulders with several "trip handicappers" in my day...and, although they all talked a "good game"...none of them was successful enough to entice me to put "trips" on the handicapping pedestal that some place it on. When it comes to the "mystical" parts of handicapping...practicality seldom catches up to the theory of the topic. In my opinion, at least.
I wondered some time ago about Andy exaggerating Charlie's exploits for effect, especially after TLG considered him more of a physicalist, as well as discovering the rearrangement of events regarding Gulfstream '77. You and others labeled it "artistic license" then as you do now, which was fine. I've gone my own way by now with some personal insights, I hope.

Since becoming aware of the expertise of the Public using comprehensive factors, I now recognize that every-race applications will only get one a loss at the takeout rate, and selectivity is required.

I'm sure Andy is fine cashing on Big Coach, since the best situation for figure makers is that elusive, competitive fig horse who otherwise looks bad enough to be 11-1.
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Old 01-06-2022, 05:01 PM   #18
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by dnlgfnk View Post
I wondered some time ago about Andy exaggerating Charlie's exploits for effect, especially after TLG considered him more of a physicalist, as well as discovering the rearrangement of events regarding Gulfstream '77. You and others labeled it "artistic license" then as you do now, which was fine. I've gone my own way by now with some personal insights, I hope.

Since becoming aware of the expertise of the Public using comprehensive factors, I now recognize that every-race applications will only get one a loss at the takeout rate, and selectivity is required.

I'm sure Andy is fine cashing on Big Coach, since the best situation for figure makers is that elusive, competitive fig horse who otherwise looks bad enough to be 11-1.
IMO...for every one "Big Coach" that wins, there are at least 12 of him that lose the race.
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Old 01-08-2022, 11:06 AM   #19
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betting the figures is like an over-baked ham. there is too much that can't be quantified. probably the best case for the folly of basing a selection on figures is in the regression formula of dr quirin . about 1/3 rd of his rating system was based on who was riding the horse! most often than not the figures of a horse being ridden by a low percentage rider look like a forgery, after the race is over, and leads one to scratching his head, more often than not.
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Old 01-08-2022, 12:27 PM   #20
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And he was using DRF SR+TV, not Beyer, or TFUS, or the sheets.
I doubt you will find a factor better than figures that is affordabley available.
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