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Old 03-31-2017, 03:50 PM   #361
dilanesp
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I know exactly what the delta is, sorry you felt you had to type 2000 words to explain it without bothering to try figuring out what I meant. Have a nice day.
Personally I thought Delta was a bullring in rural Louisiana with a casino attached. FWIW you definitely don't want to go wide on the turns there.
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Old 03-31-2017, 04:04 PM   #362
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Personally I thought Delta was a bullring in rural Louisiana with a casino attached. FWIW you definitely don't want to go wide on the turns there.

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Old 03-31-2017, 04:23 PM   #363
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It doesn't.

The delta is just a calculation from TRAKUS that is based on total distance traveled. The calculation is trivial. It's merely a comparison of the distance covered by the winner and each of the other horses in the race. I'm hard pressed to understand why this couldn't also be done for a group of races.

Let's do one:

DWC DAY

Race 2 2000m on the dirt. Distance covered by the winner: 2035 meters

Rac 9 DWC 2000m on the dirt. Distance covered by the winner: 2039 meters.


DELTA race 1 to race 9:

Let's do the math:

2035 - 2039 = - 4 meters

Make sense?

p.s. in a thread where the point being advanced by the majority is that Arrogate not only was compromised by the bad start but had an extremely wide trip, one would think that a comparison of his total distance covered to that of the others in the race, in other worlds DELTA for the race in question, would be the way to advance the argument.
Your suggestion is well thought, but it wouldn't be of much value across races because Trakus measures a race distance with a series tangent vectors with each vector length being the displacement between points and to minimize the rewriting of data for each horse they use a “delta” which essentially does the same thing.

To go across races they would have to calibrated each race with respect to environment conditions and normalized; and even then, I don’t see the value because horses individually are so dissimilar.
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Old 03-31-2017, 05:01 PM   #364
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In fairness, I don't think 3 lengths qualifies as up the track.
I was going to say much the same, as I remembered her running a pretty game BCC. But I started questioning my memory, so I'm glad you stepped in. Thanks.
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Old 04-01-2017, 06:09 PM   #365
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The fact that Arrogate is as fast as he is just makes it more of an outrage that he has such an incomplete career.
Can you explain this is more detail?

From what I understand the horse was slow developing and then really had some issues in his two year old year so they gave him some time off.

Since he made his debut he has been in training making starts on a pretty regular basis.

He has started in the Travers in his 5th start, the BC Classic in his 6th, the Pegasus in his 7th and now the Dubai WC in his 8th. He is getting a well deserved break.

What is the outrage and why is it incomplete?

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Old 04-01-2017, 07:12 PM   #366
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Can you explain this is more detail?

From what I understand the horse was slow developing and then really had some issues in his two year old year so they gave him some time off.

Since he made his debut he has been in training making starts on a pretty regular basis.

He has started in the Travers in his 5th start, the BC Classic in his 6th, the Pegasus in his 7th and now the Dubai WC in his 8th. He is getting a well deserved break.

What is the outrage and why is it incomplete?
4 starts a year is, historically, nothing. And that's what he is heading towards this year. He is sound. He should run a lot more.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:17 PM   #367
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4 starts a year is, historically, nothing. And that's what he is heading towards this year. He is sound. He should run a lot more.
What races is he supposed to run in? There really isn't a whole lot of older horses the next few months, is there? The Foster I guess is the next big one, assuming the Met Mile is too short?
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:22 PM   #368
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4 starts a year is, historically, nothing. And that's what he is heading towards this year. He is sound. He should run a lot more.
We'd all love him to run a ton more this year.

Reality is, he is a future Stud demanding large dollars.

He will be lightly raced till the BC Classic. I see 2 races at best that we'll see him before then.

I'll enjoy them both, and then be at Del Mar to watch greatness.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:32 PM   #369
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He has started in the Travers in his 5th start, the BC Classic in his 6th, the Pegasus in his 7th and now the Dubai WC in his 8th. He is getting a well deserved break.
You have to be a little fair at least here. The Travers was 7 months ago. He had 60 days from racing between that start and the Classic, but we'll disregard that since Baffert pulled the stunt the year before with American Pharoah.

Arrogate got his well deserved break after the BC Classic, in which he was gone nearly 90 days prior to his Pegasus start. I understand the international ship complicates things, but saying a horse is ready for a break after 2 starts this season is a bit much.

If this was yesteryear, he would have pointed to the Oaklawn Handicap and the Pimlico Special or the Californian before targeting the Hollywood Gold Cup or the Suburban.

But precisely because of the management and campaigning of such horses as Arrogate nowadays, those races I just mentioned are left with virtually no impact on the calendar any more. A sad state of affairs.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:34 PM   #370
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4 starts a year is, historically, nothing. And that's what he is heading towards this year. He is sound. He should run a lot more.
His year really was June to June and he made 7 starts..its sucks he had issues early in his 3 year old year.

His campaign fits modern tbreds in the top class the past few decades, your issue with this horse is misplaced.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:38 PM   #371
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You have to be a little fair at least here. The Travers was 7 months ago. He had 60 days from racing between that start and the Classic, but we'll disregard that since Baffert pulled the stunt the year before with American Pharoah.

Arrogate got his well deserved break after the BC Classic, in which he was gone nearly 90 days prior to his Pegasus start. I understand the international ship complicates things, but saying a horse is ready for a break after 2 starts this season is a bit much.

If this was yesteryear, he would have pointed to the Oaklawn Handicap and the Pimlico Special or the Californian before targeting the Hollywood Gold Cup or the Suburban.

But precisely because of the management and campaigning of such horses as Arrogate nowadays, those races I just mentioned are left with virtually no impact on the calendar any more. A sad state of affairs.
why is there even some kind of comparison to the horses starts of "yesteryear", it makes no sense.

Cy Young used to pitch double headers in the same day....its not relevant to compare him to Clayton Kershaw if how often is the measuring stick for anything.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:49 PM   #372
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why is there even some kind of comparison to the horses starts of "yesteryear", it makes no sense.

Cy Young used to pitch double headers in the same day....its not relevant to compare him to Clayton Kershaw if how often is the measuring stick for anything.
Spare me. "Yesteryear" was a bit of sarcasm. I was talking about 4 or 5 years ago.

See campaigns of Game On Dude, Will Take Charge, Fort Larned, Flat Out, Einstein, Richard's Kid, Curlin etc.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:52 PM   #373
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What races is he supposed to run in? There really isn't a whole lot of older horses the next few months, is there? The Foster I guess is the next big one, assuming the Met Mile is too short?
Really?

Met Mile Californian Gold Cup Suburban Stephen Foster San Diego Whitney Pacific Classic Woodward Awesome Again JCGC BC Classic Cigar Mile Clark

There are plenty of races. And that's not counting sprints and turf races.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:55 PM   #374
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Really?

Met Mile Californian Gold Cup Suburban Stephen Foster San Diego Whitney Pacific Classic Woodward Awesome Again JCGC BC Classic Cigar Mile Clark

There are plenty of races. And that's not counting sprints and turf races.
Why in the world would anyone run this horse in a race like the Suburban or the San Diego? He is simply worth too much to risk. I'd love to see him race as much as the next person but you have to be reasonable. Sprints and turf? Come one.
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Old 04-01-2017, 08:01 PM   #375
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Spare me. "Yesteryear" was a bit of sarcasm. I was talking about 4 or 5 years ago.

See campaigns of Game On Dude, Will Take Charge, Fort Larned, Flat Out, Einstein, Richard's Kid, Curlin etc.
Your comparing Fords to a Ferrari.
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