Here's how I'm approaching my Derby wager{s} this year:
After handicapping the PP's a few times I couldn't come up with a horse I really liked.
I thought the best horse was probably Honor A.P......but Mike Smith is having trouble with age(no offense
GMB@BP.....just my opinion).......so I didn't want that one.....to win.
Next I tried all of the handicapping angles I could think of.......barn switch/equipment change/legit excuses for poor races........that kind of stuff......once again nothing.
So I decided to narrow it down by only using horses that were coming out of what I considered to be the strongest races.
I'm not using times for this one.........
I'm going by overall quality of the entire fields......not just the winner......and horses running to their potential(or close to it) in the listed races.
This is how I rated the "preps":
1) Arkansas Derby (Nadal division).
2) Blue Grass
3) San Felipe
4) Kentucky Jockey Club
5) Shared Belief
6) Santa Anita Derby
7) Haskell
8) Belmont
All of the other 2/3yo prep races I had little to no use for.
Using the above 8 races,I've narrowed it down to(in no particular order):
Authentic
Finnick the Fence
Storm the Court
Thousand Words
I'll carry these four in DD/P-3/4/5 and box them in Exacta/Tri's/Super
*Honor A.P/Enforceable.....I'll carry underneath in Exacta/Tri/Super only.
FWIW: Tiz the Law didn't make my list because the horses he's been beating aren't very good.