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03-23-2011, 12:41 AM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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CJ, do you have a fig for this race? I'm getting 103 only for MM...fast, but not 114 fast...could be a spot to play against some of the also rans in the future.
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03-23-2011, 02:15 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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I have it at 112. Pace figure nearly as strong, too. The other dirt races would scale way too low if MM only got a 103. I wouldn't give out a 112 maiden win lightly, never mind 114, but it seems justified on the evidence at hand. The top two horses had already left their opponents way back in the dust halfway around the turn, and the other two early runners were coming out of frontrunning/pressing tries in a fairly quick 5.5f race so it's not like they figured to be slugs by any means.
The horse was incredible not only during the race but also afterwards. Looked fresh as a daisy. His pedigree says early-maturing sprinter-miler, so how far he will run and how much he might improve are certainly open to debate. But the debut was tremendous on all counts.
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03-23-2011, 02:38 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 198
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My Master Win Ratings cover only horses who've raced in California--but the rating of 25 I've given to Maclean's Music is the highest I've ever given a once-raced maiden out here in the 22 years I've been compiling these numbers.
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Barry Meadow
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03-23-2011, 02:46 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Bird Rock
Posts: 16,697
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BMeadow
My Master Win Ratings cover only horses who've raced in California--but the rating of 25 I've given to Maclean's Music is the highest I've ever given a once-raced maiden out here in the 22 years I've been compiling these numbers.
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Who were the other noteworthy ratings you've figured over the years?
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03-23-2011, 03:14 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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I saw a Wally Dollase colt by Mr. Prospector make his debut in the mid-90's-- can't remember the colt's name. He got a huge number for his debut at Santa Anita, which he won by a massive margin, though in my view he wasn't as impressive as Maclean's Music was yesterday.
In his second race, he went off at 1/5 or 1/9 around two turns, only won by about a length, speed figure tailed off noticeably. He then failed in a few stakes tries and that was it.
Another was Fly'n J Bryan, trained by Doug Peterson. Big sprint debut, although again I wouldn't rate it as strong as what Maclean's Music produced. Followed up with a stakes sprint win at miniscule odds but earned a lower Beyer, then failed as the heavy favourite in a SA Derby prep and was well-beaten again in the SA Derby itself. Went back to sprinting, never improved; ended up running in claiming races.
You just never know whether those precocious types will move forward or not.
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03-23-2011, 03:41 AM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 198
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"Who were the other noteworthy ratings you've figured over the years?"
I don't have the historical records, but most recently, Runflatout was a 23 after his first start. In the past, I remember giving Olympio a 24 after a very troubled debut.
The only horses to race in California in 2011 with higher ratings than Maclean's Music are Misremembered (28), Caracortado (27), Cost Of Freedom (27), Bourbon Bay (26), Jeranimo (26), and Twirling Candy (26). All are older stakes horses.
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Barry Meadow
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03-23-2011, 06:23 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 422
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Aren't these speed figures, earned over a track that seems almost paved, dubious at best?
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"A foolish man tells a woman to stop talking, but a wise man tells her that her mouth is extremely beautiful when her lips are closed."
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03-23-2011, 10:28 AM
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#38
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nikki1997
I knew you'd have an astute understanding of what I wrote.
You don't understand the possibility of bloodlines playing a part in a horse's makeup, ability and talent and that is comical. Hope you've got a steady supply of quarters for your horse. At least that is black and white, which is right in your territory.
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For every horse that lives up to its breeding, about 19 don't. That was my only point.
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03-23-2011, 10:29 AM
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#39
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Some_One
CJ, do you have a fig for this race? I'm getting 103 only for MM...fast, but not 114 fast...could be a spot to play against some of the also rans in the future.
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I think I had 112/113 with pace about the same.
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03-23-2011, 10:31 AM
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#40
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,834
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ManeMediaMogul
Aren't these speed figures, earned over a track that seems almost paved, dubious at best?
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While the times have been fast, and there have been speed bias days, the track has generally been pretty fair. Isn't one of the strong points of figures that they take track speed into account? If they didn't, why bother?
Fast tracks aren't always speed biased, just as slow tracks can be.
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04-06-2011, 03:44 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 670
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I see Flightofalifetime is entered in the 2nd race on Saturday (4/9).
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04-09-2011, 12:08 AM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
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The 6th and 9th place finishers from that race ran 1-2 in a MCL75k at SA today.
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