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Old 02-28-2023, 02:02 PM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Which tracks have big odds movements?

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Old 03-03-2023, 10:08 AM   #2
alydar
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Seems like there is a correlation to handle.
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Old 03-03-2023, 12:13 PM   #3
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The chosen timeframe also happens to align with NYRA's implementation (in July 2021) of a 3-minutes-to post restriction on CAW win-bet wagering.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...ic-win-betting
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Old 03-03-2023, 12:35 PM   #4
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I had compiled stats several years ago based upon 0 MTP to final odds where Turf Paradise had the largest swing. The problem with that metric is they had one of the largest post time drags as well so that kind of explains it when your avg 'off time' is -7 MTP Since then I've coded up something much more comprehensive that allows me to know precisely the last odds that were available when the betting cutoff at the ADW. That's critical to know because there's absolutely nothing past that point which you can take advantage of. So then it's the delta from that point to the final odds really (ideally) what should be presented here IMO.
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Old 03-03-2023, 12:43 PM   #5
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Was anyone as surprised as I was to see Gulfstream ranked the "best" after the NYRA tracks? My "anecdotal" recall seems to feature others' tweets of screenshots of odds drops from GP more than any other track. (Shows the selectiveness of our memories.)

I was not surprised to see the Oaklawn number/standing, because I've known that CAW money has been allowed in their pools ever since CDI took over their wagering agreement negotiations after the 2019 season. It does surprise me how many people will STILL trumpet out that they do not allow it - because they did SUCH a good job of promoting it when they didn't. We need to figure out how to market that way on any other good things in racing - that one was very "sticky"!
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Old 03-03-2023, 01:30 PM   #6
how cliche
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
Was anyone as surprised as I was to see Gulfstream ranked the "best" after the NYRA tracks? My "anecdotal" recall seems to feature others' tweets of screenshots of odds drops from GP more than any other track. (Shows the selectiveness of our memories.)
count me in that group w you. gp and wo felt the most volatile over the years. incorrect as is often the case.

the rows weren't easy to understand imo. applied to where i play the most, w 30 seconds to the bell just 35 percent of win money is processed. when the bell sounds 85 are in. the final 15 are tallied after the break. think that's what's meant, but am uncertain. regardless, appreciate andy for putting it up.
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Old 03-03-2023, 02:29 PM   #7
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To me, highlights the ability to bet with confidence into the NYRA win pools knowing that the volatility is removed.

Great job!
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Old 03-04-2023, 09:38 PM   #8
Al Gobbi
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Big odds movement in the Kilroe Mile today at Santa Anita

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Old 03-04-2023, 09:40 PM   #9
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To me, highlights the ability to bet with confidence into the NYRA win pools knowing that the volatility is removed.

Great job!
Shill.
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Old 03-04-2023, 09:43 PM   #10
cj
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Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe View Post
To me, highlights the ability to bet with confidence into the NYRA win pools knowing that the volatility is removed.

Great job!
Yeah, but stay in the win pools. The verticals, at least exactas and trifectas, are ugly right now.
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