How to get rid of the favourite????????

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Much better?
Really?

The Betting Public is like a turkey. Most of the time they do really well.

[pandy]

Sarge gave that 1 horse in 6th at S.A. as his Play of the Day, so people see things differently.

[ultracapper]

Miller did take advantage of the waiver rule also. That makes a difference if you're trying to get into his head a bit. He didn't want to risk him after all.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Miller did take advantage of the waiver rule also. That makes a difference if you're trying to get into his head a bit. He didn't want to risk him after all.

Yes, that was one of the reasons why Sarge liked the horse. As a former trainer, he saw how Miller was using the rules to his advantage.

[lamboguy]

i'd love to know how you even know who the favorite is in the race before the horse's cross the finish line.

[Robert Fischer]

"African Vultures Don’t Follow Migratory Herds: Scavenger Habitat Use Is Not Mediated by Prey Abundance

Abstract
...
if vultures select areas where mortality rates are greatest then we expect vultures to select the driest regions, where animals are more likely to die of starvation, and to be attracted to migratory wildebeest only during the dry season when wildebeest mortality is greatest.
..."

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%...l.pone.0083470

[fmolf]

keep in mind that false or not, favorites lose 2 of every 3 races....I like to use the race summary from Brisnet. on the top of the first section they give the % of winning favorites for that class of race.Become familiar with it and you'll find that the public missreads certain types of races more often than others.

[traynor]

One of the interesting aspects of favorites--and indirectly of the wisdom of crowds--is that much betting behavior may be mindless following by many bettors of the leads of others.

Without going into a great deal of boring detail, the accuracy of selecting winners that go off as favorites may have much more to do with the accuracy of morning line prognosticators at various tracks than anything remotely resembling "the wisdom of crowds." When appropriately layered, there is a definite correlation between the accuracy of the ("public") morning line(s) available at a given track, and the number of "winning favorites" at that track.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

"African Vultures Don’t Follow Migratory Herds: Scavenger Habitat Use Is Not Mediated by Prey Abundance

Abstract
...
if vultures select areas where mortality rates are greatest then we expect vultures to select the driest regions, where animals are more likely to die of starvation, and to be attracted to migratory wildebeest only during the dry season when wildebeest mortality is greatest.
..."

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%...l.pone.0083470

Play into the smallest pools?

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i'd love to know how you even know who the favorite is in the race before the horse's cross the finish line.

Betfair.

[Errol]

Originally Posted by fmolf

keep in mind that false or not, favorites lose 2 of every 3 races....I like to use the race summary from Brisnet. on the top of the first section they give the % of winning favorites for that class of race.Become familiar with it and you'll find that the public missreads certain types of races more often than others.

************************************************** ***********************************
The favourite loses 66%. Barring an unforeseen accident that scramble the race.

The public made it the favourite but the 2nd or 3rd choice should have been,

Has anyone done a workup up that say's the losing favourite almost always has X factor in it's PP's.

Just 1, 2 or 3 factors that could reliably keep you from betting 5%, 6% or more of the losing Post Time Favourite and, well this game would be a little easier.

Another way to look at it:
I've selected so & so in the the third and it turns up as the third choice on the odds board. Now I check the favourite and see 1 or 2 factors that say "Pass this race cause you're gonna lose". I pass the race, the favourite wins and I'm ahead.

Or:
Those factors say this favourite has an excellent chance of losing. So I make my bet knowing that my chances are a little better.

Right now I'm using the odds board, but I feel there's a better way????????????

Vaya Con Dios
Errol

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by traynor

One of the interesting aspects of favorites--and indirectly of the wisdom of crowds--is that much betting behavior may be mindless following by many bettors of the leads of others.

Without going into a great deal of boring detail, the accuracy of selecting winners that go off as favorites may have much more to do with the accuracy of morning line prognosticators at various tracks than anything remotely resembling "the wisdom of crowds." When appropriately layered, there is a definite correlation between the accuracy of the ("public") morning line(s) available at a given track, and the number of "winning favorites" at that track.

Spot on.

I remember a thread a few months ago where someone was touting how they only bet Chalk and were ahead as a lifetime bettor because of it.
No sport in that for me. I like Overlays and finding value in potential longshots.

Yet, I can't say I have NOT been influenced by other bettors and handicappers in the "crowd". Seldom, but it has happened. In fact it MAY have just happened at the Belmont Stakes. And luckily for me, it worked out just dandy.

[kaif the mad]

If you only bet favorites and are a lifetime winner, then you ARE betting overlays. There's no way around that. It's just that you're identifying 8-5 horses that should be even money instead of 4-1 shots that should be 3-1 or 10-1 shots that deserve 8-1.

Personally, I don't give a rip where my edge is. Favorites there is less variance, more reliance on accuracy (being off by 1 or 2 % winners there is a killer). Longshots require less precision (when you're betting at 10-1 you don't care if the horse's true chance of winning is 15% or 16%, you're going to bet anyway).

Throw out underlays. Sometimes that's favorites, sometimes midrange, many times longshots. That's more important.

[shouldacoulda]

Isn't that one of the commandments for racing? Thou shalt not honor false favorites. The trick is spotting one.

Personally I could care less what the public thinks. I've seen enough 7-5 favorites stink up the track to not pay attention to what the public thinks. On the other hand, I have seen plenty of 3-2 favorites look like and perform like a total overlay. 150% return on your "investment" is nothing to snicker about. I tend to shy away from favorites in general. Sometimes much to my chagrin.

[thaskalos]

It is possible to take an underlaid favorite...and create a profitable situation around him.