RPM The Good And Not So good - Page 2 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

headhawg · 03-14-2024, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Topcat

The RPM software programs typically get ripped by many because they do not live up the hype of the advertising , “36% winners 59% ROI be a millionaire” that sort of thing. However it doesn’t mean they do not present some value, the biggest plus is they all use the same $1 file BRIS format which in my testing gave just about the same ROI as more expensive data from Handicappers Database.

Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".

Speed Figure · 03-14-2024, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg

Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".

The JCapper files are basically the same data structure as bris. The difference is the pace and speed numbers and Prime Power is replaced with PSR. If you change the jcp to drf they will work.

Topcat · 03-15-2024, 02:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg

Please explain how you tested the RPM software with HDW data. I wasn't aware that you can obtain those files in comma-delimited format, and therefore you cannot conclude that the Bris data and HDW data provide "just about the same ROI".

headhawg,

First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.

Secondly, as Speed Figure explains above, both BRIS and Handicappers Data Warehouse get their data from the same place, that is Equibase, it is not like one gets their data from Equibase and another from Timeform. The value comes from what the HDW programs can do with the data.

Third, I did not test HDW data in RPM programs, but tested the data or similar factors. One that did show a gap in favor of HDW was last race speed rating in BRIS vs. Cramer Speed rating, and you can argue that this isn't "apples to apples" as Cramer uses a different projection method in calculating track variant. While they correlated over 90% of the time, Cramer was a little better.

In over 10,000 races the BRIS best last race speed rating , if over 1 point of next horse, the loss was in my test 14% or $1.74 for every two dollars, HDW Cramer speed rating same criterion loss of 10% or $1.80. Both losers and this is one of the factors that would give an edge to HDW but this is one of the few that showed a difference, now as you get into PSR, projected speed ratings and different weighted pace calculations there is added value but those, IMHO is driven by the software partners of HDW and not necessarily the raw data.

Saratoga · 03-15-2024, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Topcat

headhawg,

First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.

Secondly, as Speed Figure explains above, both BRIS and Handicappers Data Warehouse get their data from the same place, that is Equibase, it is not like one gets their data from Equibase and another from Timeform. The value comes from what the HDW programs can do with the data.

Third, I did not test HDW data in RPM programs, but tested the data or similar factors. One that did show a gap in favor of HDW was last race speed rating in BRIS vs. Cramer Speed rating, and you can argue that this isn't "apples to apples" as Cramer uses a different projection method in calculating track variant. While they correlated over 90% of the time, Cramer was a little better.

In over 10,000 races the BRIS best last race speed rating , if over 1 point of next horse, the loss was in my test 14% or $1.74 for every two dollars, HDW Cramer speed rating same criterion loss of 10% or $1.80. Both losers and this is one of the factors that would give an edge to HDW but this is one of the few that showed a difference, now as you get into PSR, projected speed ratings and different weighted pace calculations there is added value but those, IMHO is driven by the software partners of HDW and not necessarily the raw data.

Let me say that .90 roi with Cramer speed is quite good in this day and age....

I'd like to see a full years result comparison..there are roughly 35,000 races a year

One question Topcat: Where did to get the Cramer Speed Figs

I have HTR and its Cramer Speed Fig is based on last 90 days only..

Its ROI for Rank 1 is .85 for 2023

thx

Dave Schwartz · 03-15-2024, 08:56 AM

You show me yours, I'll show you mine.

____________________________
In this sample below, I queried my database for the following:

Race filters
1-1-23 to 12-31-23
Dirt, fast tracks, 5f to 9f
Removed races with entries

Horse Filters
No FTS

Code:

174-rPSR	WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            14,390  4,629   32.2  $1.69   2.24   1.05   1.09   2.39  $5.26   1.67   1.80
2nd            13,872  2,856   20.6  $1.66   1.43   1.03   1.07   1.57  $8.08   3.07   2.70
3rd            13,560  1,942   14.3  $1.56   1.00   0.98   1.01   1.15 $10.87   4.57   3.51
FH             19,061  1,813    9.5  $1.51   0.77   0.98   0.97   0.76 $15.85   7.36   4.81
RH             34,021  1,815    5.3  $1.32   0.40   0.89   0.85   0.47 $24.70  12.59   6.10

Total          94,904 13,055   13.8  $1.50   1.01   0.98

FH is Front Half of Field + 1 horse
RH is Rear Half (i.e. not front half)
PIV is Pool Impact Value
DV is Dollar Value -- $net / Avg $Net in the sample
BV is Betting Value -- How they bet each rank

There is also an older version of PSR.
In the HSH system it is referred to as "Cramer Power."
The results are similar.

Code:

2023.
175-rCPw	WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            14,256  4,327   30.4  $1.67   2.11   1.05   1.08   2.28  $5.49   1.81   1.98
2nd            13,873  2,790   20.1  $1.63   1.40   1.01   1.05   1.56  $8.11   3.10   2.82
3rd            13,457  1,981   14.7  $1.58   1.03   1.00   1.02   1.15 $10.76   4.53   3.59
FH             18,939  1,896   10.0  $1.59   0.81   1.00   1.03   0.78 $15.92   7.13   4.82
RH             34,379  2,061    6.0  $1.29   0.45   0.90   0.83   0.52 $21.47  11.28   5.91

Total          94,904 13,055   13.8  $1.50   1.01   0.98

HSH also has a 3rd High-Level number, known simply as "The Rating."

Code:

2023.
168-rcRtg 	WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            15,709  4,687   29.8  $1.68   2.08   1.04   1.08   2.24  $5.62   1.85   2.02
2nd            14,253  2,800   19.6  $1.61   1.37   1.02   1.04   1.51  $8.21   3.23   2.88
3rd            13,510  1,888   14.0  $1.58   0.98   0.98   1.02   1.12 $11.30   4.70   3.65
FH             18,776  1,801    9.6  $1.53   0.78   0.99   0.99   0.76 $15.93   7.40   4.89
RH             32,656  1,879    5.8  $1.31   0.43   0.91   0.85   0.50 $22.77  11.88   6.01

Total          94,904 13,055   13.8  $1.50   1.01   0.98

.

Saratoga · 03-15-2024, 01:13 PM

Pretty impressive with those extra categories...

Here's a simple output I got ...

year 2023

Rank HTR Cramer's Figs

Lifetime starts >0

Dirt.... sprint /route

no turf or poly

What got me is your Win %...quite higher than mine

and that's a big difference

But in OP, that .90 seems a little off

Dave Schwartz · 03-15-2024, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Pretty impressive with those extra categories...

Here's a simple output I got ...
year 2023
Rank HTR Cramer's Figs
Lifetime starts >0
Dirt.... sprint /route
no turf or poly

What got me is your Win %...quite higher than mine
and that's a big difference

But in OP, that .90 seems a little off

I don't understand how my PSRs could be producing such drastically different hit rates.

Also, 2023 was LOWER by almost 2% from the previous years.

What I do is only slightly different and just should not make such a massive difference in the end result.

What I do that's different
I convert those numbers to a one-point equals one length number to produce something LIKE A SPEED RATING. It is, however, 100% the same starting number.

BTW, HSH also shows PAST PSR numbers from the horse's past races in the Pacelines. This should allow you to pluck out some past races and compare the numbers.

The example shows some other fields from the day of that race.
Sh# is PSR converted to a Sheet's like number on .
ES is the horse's ES Points.
RTG, FT, PSR, CPwr (older version of PSR) all on the day of THAT race.

Dave Schwartz · 03-15-2024, 04:48 PM

Something else you might find interesting.

WINTER RACING is... DIFFERENT.
And it's not about weather because it is in warmer climes as well as colder.

I have some theories but they're all conjecture. (I also have a product in my store called What Wins in Winter.)

But the point is that the high level numbers are LESS PREDICTIVE in the winter months than the rest of the year.

Same data... but only drawn from Nov. 15 to Jan 21st.

Notice how the hit rate went down!
Logically, then the rest of the year should go up.

Code:

2023.
168-rcRtgWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st             1,447    385   26.6  $1.65   2.05   0.99   1.06   2.11  $6.20   2.02   2.14
2nd             1,327    232   17.5  $1.47   1.34   0.99   0.95   1.39  $8.42   3.61   3.06
3rd             1,264    181   14.3  $1.64   1.10   1.05   1.06   1.07 $11.48   4.99   3.83
FH              2,167    225   10.4  $1.85   0.91   1.09   1.19   0.75 $17.86   7.55   5.02
RH              3,389    169    5.0  $1.17   0.41   0.87   0.75   0.45 $23.40  13.27   6.43

Total           9,594  1,192   12.4  $1.50   1.00   0.98

$NetR=  1.58   IVR=  5.00   PIVR=  1.25 PubChR=  3.00

2023.
174-rPSRWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st             1,312    366   27.9  $1.51   2.14   0.96   0.97   2.29  $5.42   1.79   1.83
2nd             1,279    263   20.6  $1.77   1.58   1.10   1.14   1.46  $8.61   3.37   2.83
3rd             1,265    179   14.2  $1.55   1.08   0.97   1.00   1.14 $10.99   4.58   3.52
FH              2,164    222   10.3  $1.67   0.90   1.09   1.08   0.74 $16.27   7.63   4.91
RH              3,574    162    4.5  $1.28   0.37   0.87   0.83   0.41 $28.20  14.66   6.59

Total           9,594  1,192   12.4  $1.50   1.00   0.98

$NetR=  1.38   IVR=  5.78   PIVR=  1.26 PubChR=  3.60

2023.
175-rCPwWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st             1,318    348   26.4  $1.63   2.03   0.97   1.05   2.13  $6.19   1.99   2.11
2nd             1,254    233   18.6  $1.51   1.43   0.99   0.97   1.48  $8.11   3.32   2.95
3rd             1,266    193   15.2  $1.61   1.17   1.09   1.04   1.10 $10.56   4.83   3.73
FH              2,151    224   10.4  $1.83   0.91   1.08   1.18   0.76 $17.59   7.43   4.94
RH              3,605    194    5.4  $1.21   0.44   0.90   0.78   0.47 $22.53  12.59   6.33

Total           9,594  1,192   12.4  $1.50   1.00   0.98

$NetR=  1.51   IVR=  4.61   PIVR=  1.21 PubChR=  3.00



     FxNum     Factor   $NetR    IVR   PIVR PubChR  Score
      1    168 rcRtg     1.58   5.00   1.25   3.00  69.13
      2    174 rPSR      1.38   5.78   1.26   3.60  64.32
      3    175 rCPw      1.51   4.61   1.21   3.00  58.96

Dave Schwartz · 03-15-2024, 04:55 PM

Here is the rest of the year (with winter removed).

These are the hit rates I am used to seeing.

Of course, there is no profit to be found.

In our HSH system, the primary use for the major factors like these is to predict what the odds on the horses should be.

Code:

2023.
168-rcRtgWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            17,082  5,186   30.4  $1.69   2.06   1.06   1.09   2.25  $5.58   1.83   2.01
2nd            15,482  3,100   20.0  $1.64   1.36   1.03   1.06   1.53  $8.19   3.18   2.87
3rd            14,689  2,050   14.0  $1.56   0.95   0.96   1.01   1.14 $11.19   4.61   3.61
FH             19,201  1,810    9.4  $1.46   0.76   0.96   0.94   0.77 $15.49   7.29   4.85
RH             34,693  2,109    6.1  $1.34   0.44   0.91   0.86   0.52 $22.12  11.22   5.88

Total         101,147 14,255   14.1  $1.50   1.01   0.98

$NetR=  1.26   IVR=  4.68   PIVR=  1.16 PubChR=  2.93

2023.
174-rPSRWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            15,691  5,155   32.9  $1.74   2.23   1.07   1.12   2.40  $5.28   1.66   1.80
2nd            15,113  3,125   20.7  $1.66   1.40   1.03   1.07   1.58  $8.03   3.03   2.68
3rd            14,701  2,125   14.5  $1.56   0.98   0.98   1.01   1.16 $10.81   4.51   3.50
FH             19,557  1,857    9.5  $1.50   0.76   0.96   0.97   0.77 $15.81   7.24   4.78
RH             36,085  1,993    5.5  $1.31   0.40   0.87   0.85   0.50 $23.73  11.82   5.97

Total         101,147 14,255   14.1  $1.50   1.01   0.98

$NetR=  1.33   IVR=  5.58   PIVR=  1.23 PubChR=  3.32

2023.
175-rCPwWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st            15,486  4,818   31.1  $1.70   2.11   1.07   1.10   2.29  $5.47   1.79   1.98
2nd            15,125  3,086   20.4  $1.66   1.39   1.02   1.07   1.57  $8.15   3.07   2.81
3rd            14,609  2,167   14.8  $1.57   1.01   0.99   1.01   1.18 $10.56   4.43   3.55
FH             19,449  1,941   10.0  $1.57   0.80   0.98   1.01   0.80 $15.76   7.01   4.77
RH             36,478  2,243    6.1  $1.29   0.45   0.89   0.83   0.54 $20.97  10.72   5.79

Total         101,147 14,255   14.1  $1.50   1.01   0.98

$NetR=  1.32   IVR=  4.69   PIVR=  1.20 PubChR=  2.92



     FxNum     Factor   $NetR    IVR   PIVR PubChR  Score
      1    174 rPSR      1.33   5.58   1.23   3.32  60.98
      2    175 rCPw      1.32   4.69   1.20   2.92  52.60
      3    168 rcRtg     1.26   4.68   1.16   2.93  48.36

Saratoga · 03-15-2024, 07:20 PM

Cramer Fig Rank 1 by Month 2023.....

It gets no where near your 30+

What ever your doing , it looks like your making it better than what it should

be.....or my Cramer fig is not yours

Dave Schwartz · 03-15-2024, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Cramer Fig Rank 1 by Month 2023.....

It gets no where near your 30+

What ever your doing , it looks like your making it better than what it should

be.....or my Cramer fig is not yours

I wish I could take credit but I simply can't.

Even the formulas for my conversions came from Jim Cramer.

The guy really is brilliant.

.

headhawg · 03-15-2024, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Topcat

First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.

I definitely do my own testing mainly because I don't trust anybody else's methodology, save for guys like Jeff P. The raw data comes from Equibase but some data providers like HDW will make corrections when errors are found. There has been discussion in the past about some providers not bothering to make the corrections. HDW's reputation indicates that they make corrections as needed. In addition, some of the fields are calculated in some way, shape, or form, e.g. speed points, speed ratings, etc. As you mentioned in your reply to me, the methodologies would be different for each data provider or software vendor. And for the core handicapping factors I agree that there's probably not much difference between the data providers.

Be that as it may, in your first post you gave me the impression that you tested both Bris and HDW files on the RPM software because you made an ROI comparison between them. That is what prompted my post. And it also seems that the Jcapper (jcp) files are a good deal for $89/month; I believe that also includes results files which with Bris adds an additional $.25 per file. Of course if a handicapper is just a weekend warrior buying 10 total files for Saturday and Sunday races then of course the $1 Bris files are cheaper. So the phrase "just about the same ROI as more expensive data from Handicappers Database" is relative. (italics added)

Dave Schwartz · 03-16-2024, 12:48 AM

headhawg,

FWIW, I believe TopCat was an HSH user years ago.

If I recall correctly, he is a very sharp fellow as well as a man of integrity.

.

headhawg · 03-16-2024, 12:59 AM

He might be, Dave. I don't know him. I was just questioning his post and asking for clarity. It was a little misleading, imo.

Dave Schwartz · 03-16-2024, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg

He might be, Dave. I don't know him. I was just questioning his post and asking for clarity. It was a little misleading, imo.

Brian, not trying to be in the middle of that. Just adding my 2 cents worth.

FWIW, I'd say the same of you when it comes to integrity.