A Final Version

[limit2]

The main reason for not using races with program scratches is that the remaining ML odds become unreliable.

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by limit2

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

All excellent suggestions, I have a lot of similar parameters myself

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by limit2

The main reason for not using races with program scratches is that the remaining ML odds become unreliable.

Have you (or has anyone) tested this after recalculating the M/L after scratches?
It seems like it would be fairly easy.

[limit2]

I have not read of anyone recalculating program ML odds after scratches. In addition to the problem of uncertain odds we need a way to discard races. I choose removal of races with scratches.

[TexasDolly]

Limit2, Does the minimum ML of 2.5 only apply to those races with 7 or 8 entries ? As i remember in your original outline to those with 7 or 8 and the races with 9 up required a ML of 3/1.
Thank you,
TD

[limit2]

Only 7/8 entry races have that requirement. The reason I went to that requirement is the preponderance of races of that size where the favorite wins. Add that with larger fields I could hope blocking of the favorite especially if he is not a front runner.

[TexasDolly]

Thanks L2. Sounds reasonable.
TD

[Light]

Originally Posted by limit2

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

Can you give an example of a race where this method won today just so I can wrap my brain around it? I don't care if you redboard.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I like rule #6. I believe in rule #6. I just can't get that 55%.

[limit2]

It just so happens that I posted "My Story on PA Race 5". In this case the system is fine, but the operator failed. Data: No scratches......No maiden....7 horses went to the post......Lowest ML is 5:2.....The 10:1 and 8:1 are the only candidates. The operator was not alert and did not realize he should have played the candidates even they were not buys at 1 MTP. The 10:1 ML won at premium odds of 15:1.

[limit2]

When the turf enthusiast is ready to play portfolio style, i.e. different wager types in daily play, approximately 55% of capital should be relegated to the Win slot.

[fmolf]

For me the game would no longer be any fun if i were playing it from a set of rigid rules like these.There are many left brained handicappers who are successfully.Good luck to you in the future as you hopefully win and also continue to refine this system.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by limit2

When the turf enthusiast is ready to play portfolio style, i.e. different wager types in daily play, approximately 55% of capital should be relegated to the Win slot.

And this should be done because...?

[limit2]

The 55% of capital for the Win slot is done to assure that a winning day is possible with only a Win slot hit.

[Light]

Originally Posted by limit2

It just so happens that I posted "My Story on PA Race 5". In this case the system is fine, but the operator failed. Data: No scratches......No maiden....7 horses went to the post......Lowest ML is 5:2.....The 10:1 and 8:1 are the only candidates. The operator was not alert and did not realize he should have played the candidates even they were not buys at 1 MTP. The 10:1 ML won at premium odds of 15:1.

I'm still trying to understand your system. I looked at the race above and see what you are saying. What is not clear in your rules is why the ML 10:1 and 8:1 were not plays initially and then what made them plays but too late for you to wager. Do they just have to be over their ML?