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Old 03-07-2012, 04:13 PM   #121
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by maddog42
I was joking. I sent a rather weak apology to thaskalos. Pathetic attempt at humor. Sarcasm lost on people. I pretty much labored under that same impression of favorite superiority.
sorry Thask.
My friend, there is no need for apologies.

I love a good ribbing...and can take it, as well as dish it out.
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Old 03-07-2012, 04:29 PM   #122
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Serling's thoughtful analysis of the race is more valuable than the picks themselves.

A first-rate handicapper all the way!
I couldn't agree more. He is always prepared, with a sharp knife for a mind, articulate, and fearless with his choices. Why knock this guy, given his public record for all to follow. It's a real pleasure to listen to this kind of handicapping.


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Old 03-07-2012, 04:33 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
My friend, there is no need for apologies.

I love a good ribbing...and can take it, as well as dish it out.
Tarred and feathered? I was going to suggest eating a box of Turkish Delight!
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Old 03-07-2012, 04:53 PM   #124
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Tarred and feathered? I was going to suggest eating a box of Turkish Delight!
The only Turkish export that I like are the women...provided they shave their moustaches.
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Old 03-07-2012, 05:13 PM   #125
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I couldn't agree more. He is always prepared, with a sharp knife for a mind, articulate, and fearless with his choices. Why knock this guy, given his public record for all to follow. It's a real pleasure to listen to this kind of handicapping.


Jake
Case in point, I caught the Pk4 today at Aqueduct, not a big payoff but nice enough for the transparency of all the contenders. That is with the exception of one race: In the 7th race leg, I added the #3 horse, Romancing the Gold, after Andy made a reasonable case in the pre-show why this horse might jump up this race. Hitting for $27, it proved the longshot pivot for the Pk4 bet. Again, not a big hit, but nevertheless thank you, Andy.
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Old 03-08-2012, 02:56 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by cj
A factor, maybe 1/4, THE deciding factor, very few, less than 5%.
We're still waiting to see the yearly ROI of top public handicappers. If 95% of races can be successfully handicapped, surely guys like Andy and Thomas are showing positive returns on a regular basis.
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Old 03-08-2012, 04:38 PM   #127
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We're still waiting to see the yearly ROI of top public handicappers. If 95% of races can be successfully handicapped, surely guys like Andy and Thomas are showing positive returns on a regular basis.
I don't track them, but by all means have at it. I will bet anyone that Serling is in the black for the inner dirt meet without having the statistics to back it up.

HOWEVER, nobody said 95% of the races can be successfully handicapped. I said the outcome of less than 5% of races are determine with luck being the biggest factor. These aren't even remotely close to the same thing.
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:28 PM   #128
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I said the outcome of less than 5% of races are determine with luck being the biggest factor. These aren't even remotely close to the same thing.
What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:32 PM   #129
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What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?
Gee.... 5 or 6 tons of wild-eyed beast? Running breakneck on spindly legs ? Over pain inducing surfaces? With various cocktails of illicit substances coursing through their veins? As frightened, fallible humans plot strategy and slash at them with stinging leather? And you DARE bring CHAOS into the discussion??? lol.
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Old 03-09-2012, 10:41 AM   #130
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It would be interesting to see a study that shows the percentage of time the "best" horse in the race actually wins.

The problem of course is that there would be a lot of differences of opinions on the trips, but if several people did the same study independently, we still might get some interesting results.
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:00 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
What if we replaced the word "luck" with the word "chaos"?
I was going to say something to this effect.

Luck might not have been the right word. What I'm really talking about are the things you couldn't have known beforehand.

Every race has its variables but some have more than others. At some point, an educated guess becomes a wild guess.

That's why I don't consider it a knock on a public handicapper for not showing a positive roi. He's forced to take too many wild guesses.
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:33 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
It would be interesting to see a study that shows the percentage of time the "best" horse in the race actually wins.

The problem of course is that there would be a lot of differences of opinions on the trips, but if several people did the same study independently, we still might get some interesting results.
Maybe with Trakus, just take distance run divided by time to get the "fastest" horse in each race? That wouldn't account for trouble though.
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:58 PM   #133
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I was going to say something to this effect.

Luck might not have been the right word. What I'm really talking about are the things you couldn't have known beforehand.

Every race has its variables but some have more than others. At some point, an educated guess becomes a wild guess.

That's why I don't consider it a knock on a public handicapper for not showing a positive roi. He's forced to take too many wild guesses.
Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.
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Old 03-09-2012, 01:16 PM   #134
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Though it might not seem like it when you're wagering, those "things you can't account for" will happen equally to both the favorite and the 90-1 shot (actually, I'd argue that the favorite would have more of an ability to overcome them as well as more talent to be in better racing position, but still...). So, sometimes the things you can't account for will hurt and sometimes they'll help, but in the end they'll even out. In one individual race, sure, "bad luck" can affect the outcome, but over the course of 1000 races it shouldn't affect your ability to pick the winner any more than any other random factor.
It's not about picking winners. You can have a day where you hit five races and lose, and another day in which you have one winner and win.

It's really about positive expectation viz. overcoming the takeout. If you're playing races that have a negative expectation, you'll have your share of wins but, in the long run, you'll lose. IMO, the reason those races have a negative expectation is because there are too many variables. The handicapper is in a position of having to solve X + Y = 4.

This concept is harder to see in horseracing, as opposed to, say a coin flip situation where you'd receive .95 for heads, but have to pay 1.05 for tails. A public handicapper has to play too many of this type of race to show a positive roi on a year in year out basis.
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Old 03-09-2012, 01:33 PM   #135
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The public handicapper who can show a profit for the long-term has not been born yet.

And if he ever does show up...my money says that he will have the sense to keep his ability hidden from the public eye...
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