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11-01-2014, 12:03 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
No, not really...like any course it can at times but generally leading it tough. Outside posts have an edge too.
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Not exactly true According to Brisnet posts 1-3 are winning @ 12% & posts 8+ @ 15%
Not a huge difference
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11-01-2014, 12:37 PM
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#17
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by upthecreek
Not exactly true According to Brisnet posts 1-3 are winning @ 12% & posts 8+ @ 15%
Not a huge difference
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It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
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11-01-2014, 12:50 PM
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#18
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
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The outside posts have a smaller sample which lends itself to the higher percentage being skewed, due to possibilities of chalkier horses running outside and winning versus hopeless outside longshots losing, or vice-versa. It always comes back to sufficient sample size, odds and ROI........
Last edited by ReplayRandall; 11-01-2014 at 12:53 PM.
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11-01-2014, 12:55 PM
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#19
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
The outside posts have a smaller sample which lends itself to the higher percentage being skewed, due to possibilities of chalkier horses running outside and winning versus hopeless outside longshots losing, or vice-versa. It always comes back to sufficient sample size, odds and ROI........
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Yes, which is exactly what I based my comments on...IV and ROI, plus I went back 4 years. The outside has a very clear edge over the inside, one of the bigger ones you fill find in all of racing. My comments are in the latest HANA newsletter and based on all the things you mention.
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11-01-2014, 12:57 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 587
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If your a stretch runner...and positioned nicely on the rail crossing the dirt....Seems there's always a hole on the rail as leaders drift out 90% of the time crossing turf to dirt and usually anyone who shoots for the outside can be expected to be fanned very wide turning for home.. My problem is like both running styles in this race. Hmmmm...who to pick???
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11-01-2014, 05:31 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,650
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amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
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11-01-2014, 05:42 PM
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#22
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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One heck of a run late - I thought I was watching the new TV show The Flash!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-01-2014, 05:53 PM
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#23
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
It is true, winning percentage alone without considering field size and ROI is usually not very telling of anything. Think of it this way, the 1 horse may be facing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. other horses. The 10 horse is always facing at least 9 others, often more. So outside posts should always win less by win% than inside posts. The fact the outer posts are winning at a higher percentage says a lot.
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Amen to that and something a lot of handicappers don't realize. 
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11-02-2014, 03:49 PM
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#24
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Sartin Methodology Fan
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Earth
Posts: 328
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by davew
amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
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Caracortado is the only one I can think of in recent memory when he won the G3 Daytona Stakes:
http://youtu.be/MHykGWth_eQ
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11-02-2014, 05:28 PM
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#25
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by davew
amazing race by Bobby's Kitten -
I can't remember a horse being last crossing the track (back by ? 10 ? ) and passing them all ...
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Visually, I thought he was out of it.
He generally races near the pace.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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