Day 2 - Breeders' Cup favorites - throw outs, or must use?

[biggestal99]

Mustajeeb in the mile.

The hoss is a serious runner who simply cant be tossed, this hoss will LOVE the santa anita turf.

Allan

[BlinkersOn]

American Pharoad and Magician are both scratches.

[bks]

One of three horse will win the BC Turf Sprint; Reneesgotzip, Sweet Swap, or Ambitious Brew. No horse from another course is shipping and winning here IMO. Nor will any horse who ran in a shorter race last out will win either. All three are accomplished on the downhill, and Sweet Swap has the makings of a future star.

I love RGZ but can't help wondering if Miller pointed here instead of the Sprint b/c she's not at her absolute best. I'll be playing Sweet Swap heavily, and using her and AB in the multirace exotics.

Shared Belief can lose, but he's a stone cold single in the BC Classic. He towers over the field in terms of ability, and his last race showed great toughness and tough-mindedness. He stalks, moves, and buries them.

Hardest Core is very interesting in the now wide-open BC Turf. He's improving every start and looks freakish. Who knows if he's this good, but at odds of 5-1 or more I'm finding out.

[gfnut]

Originally Posted by bks

One of three horse will win the BC Turf Sprint; Reneesgotzip, Sweet Swap, or Ambitious Brew. No horse from another course is shipping and winning here IMO. Nor will any horse who ran in a shorter race last out will win either. All three are accomplished on the downhill, and Sweet Swap has the makings of a future star.

I love RGZ but can't help wondering if Miller pointed here instead of the Sprint b/c she's not at her absolute best. I'll be playing Sweet Swap heavily, and using her and AB in the multirace exotics.

Home Run Kitten is 2 for 2 down the hill, were as RGZ has not won down the hill. There is a lot of speed in this race and may well set up for HRK and AB. Sweet Swap is coming off a layoff of 202 days and I think I read some were If John Sadler wins this year, it would be his first win in 31 starts. I think your right that the winner comes from 1 of these 4.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by bks

Shared Belief can lose, but he's a stone cold single in the BC Classic. He towers over the field in terms of ability, and his last race showed great toughness and tough-mindedness. He stalks, moves, and buries them.

If this race was on synthetic you could say that, but on dirt, he's nothing special.

[cutchemist42]

Im just surprised to see today there's a horse I saw live at ASD in the Juvenile.

[MyPicksHave3Legs]

Hi All, new here as you can see, found this forum while looking to find out what the pros are saying. I’m not in your league but here are my preferences (/) is a split choice.

Fri.

BC Juvenile Turf
War Envoy – Hootenay – Aktabantay – Conquest Typhoon/Wet Sail

BC Mile Dirt
Bronzo – Pants On Fire

Juvenile Fillies & Turf
Quality Rocks – Osaila - Conquest Harlanate - Prize Exhibit - War Alert

Distaff
Untapable/L’Amour De Ma Vie – Iotapa/Tiz Midnight - Unbridled Forever - Ria Antonia

Sat.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
Take Charge Brandi – Feathered - Top Decile - Conquest Eclipse

Fillies and Mares Turf
Dank - Stephanie’s Kitten - Abaco - Secret Gesture

Turf Sprint
Ambitious Brew/Free As A Bird/Silentio

And the one I call the dark horse to upset - Tightened Touchdown

Sentient Juvenile
Blue Dancer -Daredevil -Upstart

Longines Turf
Flintshire- Telescope

Turf Mile
Obviously/Toronado – Grand Arch - Big Bane Theory - Tourist

Classic
California Chrome - Big Cazanova - Majestic Harbour

The dark horse to upset - ZivQ

[taxicab]

Well H4C....
The chalk did well Friday.
Trouble for me.
But who am I to not go for two rotten handicapping days in a row on the board.
From the top:

Juvy Filly:
I didn't like the Chandelier Stake at all,so I'm tossing Angela R. & Conquest T.
I did like the way Puca won by a gazillion lengths.....it could of been 2 gazillion if Rosario would of let her out a bit.
I think Feathered/Wonder Gal both have talent.....they could easily get it done.

F&M Turf: Dank came out of her last with a badly bruised foot,can't play her to win but she's on all of the P-3/4 tickets.
Secret Gesture is a nice sort,should fire.
Abaco/Parranda both have talent,could do damage.
Just the Judge beat a light field @ WO....pass on her.
I don't want anything to do with Stephanie's Kitten.

F&M Sprint:
I'm not big on Judy....think she wants Synthetic.
Better Lucky I do like,with a little pace up front she could be good.
Leigh Court/Sweet Reason are definite players with these.

Turf Sprint:
I really like Bobby's Kitten......finally a short race for him.
Reneesgotzip draws terrible and is overrated anyway.
I think the race is a bit far for NNN.
Caspar N. had a crummy start,still looked good winning @ WO.
all could fire.
Best race of the day.

Juvy Colt: I'll play One Lucky Dane......throw in Carpe Diem on P-3's.
I'll pass on Daredevil......Don't know how he'll do on a non muddy surface.

Turf:
Like the Panther....throw in Flintshire on P-3/4.

Sprint:
Rich Tapestry is very good.
Seeking/Bourbon could surprise.
If speed is sticking Fast Anna becomes big.

Mile:
Rarely do I select a favorite......Toronado is my pick.
Mustajeeb is the other one I like.
I'll include Obviously on the P-3/4 in case he forgets to stop.

Classic.....In order:

California Chrome
Cigar Street
Toast of NY
Footbridge
Zivo

Good luck everybody.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by bks

Shared Belief can lose, but he's a stone cold single in the [B

BC Classic[/B]. He towers over the field in terms of ability, and his last race showed great toughness and tough-mindedness. He stalks, moves, and buries them.
.

Fed Biz crapped again in the mile, for the third time, and seems to be a third rate horse. His best races ever were vs. Shared Belief and on poly ....kind of bothers me. Fed Biz sucked in the Met Mile too. That Awesome Again was kind of fishy even with the gutsy effort. Those horses he beat just are not that good. There's no way I can single Shared Belief vs. these...Fed Biz would be 99-1 in here and that would be giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he buries these he's HOY. I just don't see it, off that last race. I don't care if he spotted Fed Biz 7 lengths....these are probably 10 lengths or more better.......he's got to move up to bury these. That last race was vs. whatever they could get to enter. It was a sub par Awesome Again that somehow is a grade 1? The other preps, like the Jockey Gold Cup seem so much better. This is the big leagues today, I think this horse gets tested hard. He's dressed up like a Halloween costume with a couple of plum picked races. "Towers over this field in terms of ability" is quite a stretch IMO.

[bks]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Fed Biz crapped again in the mile, for the third time, and seems to be a third rate horse. His best races ever were vs. Shared Belief and on poly ....kind of bothers me. Fed Biz sucked in the Met Mile too. That Awesome Again was kind of fishy even with the gutsy effort. Those horses he beat just are not that good. There's no way I can single Shared Belief vs. these...Fed Biz would be 99-1 in here and that would be giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he buries these he's HOY. I just don't see it, off that last race. I don't care if he spotted Fed Biz 7 lengths....these are probably 10 lengths or more better.......he's got to move up to bury these. That last race was vs. whatever they could get to enter. It was a sub par Awesome Again that somehow is a grade 1? The other preps, like the Jockey Gold Cup seem so much better. This is the big leagues today, I think this horse gets tested hard. He's dressed up like a Halloween costume with a couple of plum picked races. "Towers over this field in terms of ability" is quite a stretch IMO.

Can't say you're wrong about any of this, but a couple of things:

1. Most are underestimating the trouble SB had in the Awesome Again. Listening to Beer and Serling, they made it sound like he lost 2 or 3 lengths. This is nonsense. It cost him 5 lengths at minimum. Perhaps someone can post the extra distance he travelled in winning - had to be 60-70 feet.

I'll go so far as to challenge anyone to find a G1 race on dirt in recent memory where the winner faced a worse plight.

It was basically impossible to win from where he was and with what happened to him, and he won anyway.

2. Fed Biz is a good horse, but not top caliber. The AA was at a Mile over a speed favoring track where he had his own way, and he ran about the best race he could in losing to SB. He's been an in-and-out horse much of his career, so I'm not reading too much in to yesterday.

3. The race appears to set up for SB bigtime. If Moreno and Bayern go, he should be right behind them and ahead of all but one of the others. If it plays out even remotely like that and he moves by the top two on the turn, I cannot see the others in here catching him. His biggest number was on synthetic, but it was also at 1 1/4 miles. I think he wants to go this far and is better at the longer distances.

[Izzy2742]

Dank

I have serious doubt this is the same horse as last year. I am suspicious that she shows a work at AP, but then didn't run in the Beverley D.

Her European form isn't as impressive as it was last year. I think she fits into the "throw out" category.