Day 2 - Breeders' Cup favorites - throw outs, or must use?

[horses4courses]

Juvenile Fillies

On the fence.
Angela Renee is the likely favorite, and she's good.
Could someone on the improve beat her? Sure.
By The Moon, Conquest Eclipse, and Christina's Journey
will all take action. Top Decile is interesting from Al Stall's barn.
Longshots galore could be good enough, too. Good luck.

Filly & Mare Turf

Must use.
Dank can repeat.
Veda is a Euro longshot with a chance.
Just The Judge is another shipper not here for the scenery.
Stephanie's Kitten seldom runs a bad one.

Filly & Mare Sprint

On the fence.
Favorite by commitee here with Artemis Agrotera,
Judy The Beauty, and Sweet Reason vying for that spot.
Leigh Court deserves a mention. Open race that will
only have ten, or less, going to post.

Turf Sprint

Total crap shoot.
No Nay Never may be the chalk.
Who do you like?

Juvenile

Must use.
American Pharoah rules supreme, for me.
Home court, plus Baffert magic, makes him
formidable, mainly at Pletcher's expense.
Daredevil and Carpe Diem will give him
most to do, but I see a home win here.

Turf

On the fence.
Flintshire and Telescope will get most money.
I respect Michael Stoute, and his ability to
prepare horses for specific targets.
Main Sequence and Magician both have shots.
I may not use Flintshire just because the
Arc is so different to Santa Anita.
Odds will dictate.

Sprint

Crap shoot.
Palace, Rich Tapestry, Secret Circle, Private Zone,
could all go off as favorite. A 14-horse field where
just about every and any one could win.

Mile

On the fence.
Toronado should be favorite.
If he happens to take to firmer turf, and tighter turns,
than he is used to, then it's all over.
There's plenty of talent in this race, though.
Goldi's brother Anodin, Karakontie, Mustajeeb,
Trade Storm, and Veda are all Euros with chances.
Of the home team, Tom's Tribute appeals to me
if his odds are high. Tough race.

Classic

On the fence.
Shared Belief is a beast - regardless of who he has beaten.
Events could go against him, though, and 8-5 is hard to swallow.
A case can be made for plenty of others.
Hopefully, there will be plenty of juicy numbers
on the board to close out this year's BC.

Best of luck to all!

[taxicab]

Cool post...

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Cool post...

Thanks.

I'm interested to hear people's thoughts on which favorites
that they think are the most vulnerable.

To me, the Turf Sprint and Sprint look wide open.
It's easy to look past the market leaders there for me.
Other races, though, pose other questions.

Out of the 13 races in two days, we might have
three, or four, favorites. I would be surprised
if more than that win. It's a puzzle trying to
identify the best spots for long odds, and
where you may want to take a shorter price.

[holmmd]

I will be keying RT in the Sprint. Love his post and where the rest of the true speed is. Think he should get a perfect trip and the race is so deep that his "short" odds will still pay a nice price.

Obvious distance question but still trying to figure out who goes with Dayatthespa to keep her honest. Maybe it doesn't matter if Dank gets a clean trip?

[FlyinLate]

After thinking the turf was wide open, I think I've found my selection and am fairly confident in it. It has been one of my most successful races the past few years, and I'm not really sure how...

Anyways, I love Undrafted's chances here. Perfect draw, won't be toasted on the front or trying to do too much too late. Should get a perfect run at the leaders on his 2nd off the layoff after a needed prep. His effort overseas was pretty damn solid.

I'm still stuck on FM Turf, Sprint, FM Sprint, and Juvy Fillies...

[holmmd]

Like Undrafted as well but underneath as I think NNN will be tuff. Especially with RGZ having the rail. Think NNN sits right off, gets the perfect trip and will be tough to run down.

[Valuist]

Most vulnerable? IMO, its Hootenany in the Juvy Turf. Its a mile and he hasn't won beyond 5 furlongs. He may have been the early favorite in the UK bet shops, but I suspect come post time, he won't be favored.

[nijinski]

I'd like to see Sweet Reason in the F&M Sprint do well .
A blazing 45/4 for Little Alexis' 4f work Saturday . She's either eager and improving or she did too much for this race . She's Vaccarrella's first win as a trainer '
Nice race,awaiting the pp's .

[tiger rose]

Juvenile Fillies
have to use 3 one will be chalk
Christina's Journey
Angela Renee
Feathered

Filly & Mare Turf
Toss Dank for me
Secret Gesture the one to beat with
Fiesolana
Just the Judge

Filly & Mare Sprint
tough race going 4 deep
Must use Judy The Beauty believe will be chalk
Leigh Court is my pick to win
Living The Life
Artemis Agrotera

Turf Sprint
must use both one of these two will be chalk
Reneesgotzip No Say Never
as for a price tossing in Marchman

Juvenile
must use
American Pharoah another single
over
Carpe Diem
One Lucky Dane

Turf
Must use if Flintshire takes to the ground it's over
but using
Telescope
Hardest Core
Magician
Chicquita


Sprint
Secret Circle is a toss for me
too hard to get off a horse thats 9-9 on dirt longshot
Work All Week
also using
Rich Tapestry
Private Zone

Mile
one of them will be the chalk
I'm going 5 deep like in order
Anodin
Toronado
Trade Storm
Karakontie
Mustajeeb

Classic
must use
Shared Belief is a beast -agreed
I think it's a solid single play as we haven't seen his best yet
using over
Majestic Harbor
Bayern
California Chrome

[Secondbest]

Every year I look for a "can't miss" single ala ghostzapper ,goldie, wise dan , st liam etc. This year I think The cali 2 yr old American Pharoah might be the one to single around. Anybody have any thoughts?

[Secondbest]

Just saw AP was scratched.

[lamboguy]

i am going to play BY THE MOON and going to go against SHARED BELIEF, i don't really have a clue who to play in that race yet, probably play someone that looks good on the race track in most of these races and not bother handicapping.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am going to play BY THE MOON and going to go against SHARED BELIEF, i don't really have a clue who to play in that race yet, probably play someone that looks good on the race track in most of these races and not bother handicapping.

Playing against Shared Belief won't be hard to do for me.
The late PK3 and PK4 are going to be fun to play without investing much.

There are a lot of "ifs" ahead of the Classic.
If the track is lightning fast, Bayern will be much lower odds than 7-1.
If CC is strutting his stuff on the way to post like he did in the Spring,
he could fire a big race again in his backyard. He looked dull to me
before his last two races, and if that's still the case, he won't figure.
Tonalist, Toast Of New York, and Zevo, will need a fair surface
plus a fast pace. We can't try to judge the surface until early Saturday.

The figuring ahead of time is what makes playing horses so great.

Good luck!

[RunDustyRun]

Bobby's Kitten gate to wire in the turf sprint is my single.... finally finds a distance where he won't be caught in the final eighth...

every "expert" out there is throwing out Stonetastic in the FM sprint which is fine by me as I think she can get brave and last the seven furlongs IF she gets the lead....works have been sharp although the last one may have been too quick

like Wonder Gal in the Juv Fillies as I believe the Frizette was a prep for this race

Now that American Pharoah is out, I'll take another look at Calculator, who I think could win if there is a pace meltdown

[1st time lasix]

On Saturday of BC DAY---in the 2nd race-Golden State Juv 200k----Wake Up Nick has won five in a row all at shorter distances under Drug O'Neal. { ASSISTANT NAMED AS TRAINER DUE TO SUSPENSION} Already raced five times as two yr old....perhaps this is where others catch up and the horse doesn't get his meds? Vulnerable? Using three others in Pick five hoping to get by that leg without him.