good race - bad race - good race - bad race - good race - bad race

[Half Smoke]

...............................


I know you guys have seen this pattern in some horses - it pops up fairly often

the horse cannot put 2 good races back to back - he will only run well after a poor outing - and he will run poorly after a good outing

what do you make of this?

do you think it's a random thing?

it almost looks like the horse has an attitude - that he is saying to the trainer - "I'm not going to run hard every time you want me to"

and very interesting to me - if you see this pattern would you bet this horse immediately following a race where he has run well? basically speculating that the pattern shown is meaningless

or would you fade him speculating that the pattern is real?


thanks

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

...............................


I know you guys have seen this pattern in some horses - it pops up fairly often

the horse cannot put 2 good races back to back - he will only run well after a poor outing - and he will run poorly after a good outing

what do you make of this?

do you think it's a random thing?

it almost looks like the horse has an attitude - that he is saying to the trainer - "I'm not going to run hard every time you want me to"

and very interesting to me - if you see this pattern would you bet this horse immediately following a race where he has run well? basically speculating that the pattern shown is meaningless

or would you fade him speculating that the pattern is real?


thanks

its certainly possible a horse has a pattern but I am dubious without more analysis of a horses pp's.

Now with such spacing in racing its not like the horse could possible be lacking recovery time. I would suspect its more coincidence with other factors.

[castaway01]

A lot of cheaper horses are inconsistent. They need things to fall into place to run their best, and that doesn't happen very often. If it's really a situation where the horse is good, bad, good, bad...well, I haven't seen too many that literally fall into that pattern with no other explanation. In the days when horses ran more, trainers would wait for the right spot before going all out. I'm not saying that doesn't happen at all in 2020 but if you're running a five-race season there aren't going to be many tune-ups in there.

[stuball]

Some of this is due to placement. some trainers run the horses at the level where they can compete because the owners don't worry about being claimed.
small time owners want to keep their horse so the trainer is forced to keep the horse a bit above their level because there are very few horses that can't win. Almost any horse can win if they are placed properly.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by castaway01

A lot of cheaper horses are inconsistent.

I thought this too
I would guess many do

I had an idea about betting against faves in cheap claiming races

before betting I tracked the results of faves in a couple hundred cheap claiming races

I found they won about as often as faves do generally - right around 33%

so much for my idea - it got 86ed


.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

...............................


I know you guys have seen this pattern in some horses - it pops up fairly often

the horse cannot put 2 good races back to back - he will only run well after a poor outing - and he will run poorly after a good outing

what do you make of this?

do you think it's a random thing?

it almost looks like the horse has an attitude - that he is saying to the trainer - "I'm not going to run hard every time you want me to"

and very interesting to me - if you see this pattern would you bet this horse immediately following a race where he has run well? basically speculating that the pattern shown is meaningless

or would you fade him speculating that the pattern is real?


thanks

If the horse tells me through its past performances that it doesn't feel like running two good races in a row...then I'm obligated to listen and structure my wagers accordingly.